Sunday, May 27, 2007

Where's The Debt Going?

I have posted various debt statistics before, but perhaps the single most troubling one is that of debt intensity of economic growth, i.e. how much additional debt is taken on to generate one more dollar of GDP (see chart below - click to enlarge).

US Debt Intensity of GDP Growth

It now takes roughly 5 dollars of new debt to generate 1 more dollar of GDP. In gross dollar terms, during 2006 total debt grew by $3.55 trillion whereas GDP grew by just $0.79 trillion. Notice how GDP growth in dollar terms has been stuck in the same place for 4 years running, whereas debt growth has moved steadily upwards.

Which begs the question: where does all this added debt go, since it does not get consumed or invested in plant and equipment (it would have shown up as GDP growth)? And what are the final consequences if this imbalance keeps going on? These are truly not easy questions, so I will leave them open for your comments...

P.S. There are no singular "correct" answers. There is the "easy" Ponzi answer, i.e. issuing more debt to pay interest on existing debt, but I think there are more elements at play here, particularly in the nature of the debt itself (e.g. financial vs. non-financial in origin).

7 comments:

  1. The debt can be looked at as public and private. Private can be looked at as household and corporation. Public debt is going to entitlements, the war, among other things (like Ponzi debt service). Private household debt is going to living expenses and consumption of consumer goods and otherwise living beyond ones means, among other things (like Ponzi debt service). Private corporation debt is going to M&A, stock repurchase, and speculation.

    ReplyDelete
  2. hellasious,

    I think a lot of financial and consumer debt is double counted when mortgages and asset backed debt is securitized. For example, FNMA and GNMA backed bonds are considered financial debt.

    I think a far more important statistic, revealing the true extent of debt accumulation in the US, is household debt as a percentage of annual disposable income. The most relevant statistic, however, is the record level of the financial obligations ratio (FOR) of 19.40, despite historically low interest rates.

    The household debt service ratio (DSR)at 14.53 is an estimate of the ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income. Debt payments consist of the estimated required payments on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt.
    The financial obligations ratio (FOR) adds automobile lease payments, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners' insurance, and property tax payments to the debt service ratio.


    What will happen to the FOR as mortgage equity withdrawal is increasingly replaced by credit card debt?

    The only way out of this dilemma, at least for the average American household, is a combination of both savings and wage gains. Since I don't foresee significant wage gains in the near future for most American workers the only viable alternative remaining is savings.

    ReplyDelete
  3. one aspect of Marx's theory of crises seems particularly applicable here:

    An (over) expansion of credit can enable the capitalist system to sell temporarily more goods than the sum of real incomes created in current production plus past savings could buy. Likewise, credit (over) expansion can enable them to invest temporarily more capital than really accumulated surplus-value (plus depreciation allowances and recovered value of raw materials) would have enabled them to invest (the first part of the formula refers to net investments; the second to gross investment).

    But all this is only true temporarily. In the longer run, debts must be paid; and they are not automatically paid through the results of expanded output and income made possible by credit expansion. Hence the risk of a Krach, of a credit or banking crisis, adding fuel to the mass of explosives which cause the crisis of overproduction.
    (Ernest Mandel)

    While not specifically stated, the solution to what has been a 'solution' should take debt deflation form and may be quite severe as not only overpriced financial but also overaccumlated physical capital undergoes liquidation.

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