Monday, January 28, 2008

Stock Market: Now A Lagging Indicator

The behavior of the stock market has always been considered a leading economic indicator. In fact, the performance of the S&P 500 index is used by the Conference Board in calculating the official US Leading Indicators. Nevertheless, could it be that share prices are now lagging indicators? Let's look at the data.

The chart below (click to enlarge) plots the annual percent change in S&P 500 (blue line) vs. the performance of the "real" economy: annual changes in retail and restaurant sales (red), new orders for manufactured goods (pink), housing starts (green) and private employment (olive).

Notice how the broad economy started weakening in 2006 but stocks kept moving higher, even accelerating their ascent, until recently. Clearly, stocks were lagging the real economy.

In my opinion, the following are the main reasons for this unusual behavior:
  1. Stock valuations remained high because financial engineering spread out credit risk via derivatives (CDOs, CLOs, CDSs, SIVs, etc.). This theoretically lowered the overall business cycle risk and ultimately resulted in low equity risk premia (i.e. higher P/Es). As we found out, this was a fundamental mistake: Cutting the risk salami into thinner slices didn't make the salami itself any smaller and lots of it eventually found its way into places where it didn't belong (e.g. money market and pension funds). Food poisoning ensued and the market has now gone into purgative mode.
  2. After two decades of the Greenspan put, people believed that the Fed and other central banks could always bail out investors by cutting rates to the bone. However, under credit crunch and zero saving conditions it is near impossible to adequately stimulate the economy - and business profits - by just cutting interest rates. The result has been a panicky government rushing to provide fiscal stimulus.
  3. Strength in BRIC economies was supposed to counterbalance a possible Western slowdown and keep raising profits for global corporations, i.e. decoupling. I maintain that the BRIC surge is largely derivative and highly fragile, a product of supplying and vendor-financing over-indebted consumers in the US and the EU. This remains to be proven, but I note with interest that Chinese officials emphasize that their growth is heavily dependent on exports and that Arab oil producers refuse to raise production, even when publicly scolded by President Bush, fearing a collapse in prices from lower demand (assuming they can raise production, of course).
  4. Almost the entire world has accepted the capitalist laissez-faire model, theoretically allowing the invisible hand to guide profits ever higher, without meddlesome government interference. My personal view is that this is tantamount to unchecked reliance on religious dogma and that is will end badly, but, once again, it remains to be seen.
  5. All of the above are combined into the Great Moderation Theory (GMT), which holds that recessions will be infrequent and shallow, resulting in small peak-to-trough profit declines. In other words, the theory proclaims the effective abolishment of the business cycle.
But was GMT the result of structural economic transformation, as so many hope, or was it just a mirage, a process of temporarily prolonging and increasing economic activity by incurring higher debt? The chart below (click to enlarge) shows growth in real GDP (blue line) and household debt (red). Notice the unusually prolonged period of accelerating household debt after 1993 and compare it to the extended period without a serious recession.

GDP and Household Debt Expansion

Back to the stock market: from previous posts we know that corporations and investors "bought" into the GMT concept and kept replacing equity with debt in their balance sheets, removing unprecedented amounts of equity from the market via buy-backs and LBOs (see chart below). In other words, they have bet the farm on the economy not going into a serious recession (this explains the panicky rate cuts from the Fed).

All of the above, taken together, had up to now kept share prices higher than otherwise - i.e. stocks lagged the economy. Therefore, we may soon discover if the Great Moderation holds, or if it turns into the Great Unravelling.

18 comments:

  1. Great post as usual...

    I think the "Rouge Trader" saw your chart and he/she seems to be up to his/her anticks again in Asia and Europe.

    I still think the Fed was right in cutting last week. At least my book thinks so and that's the only thing that matters.

    Ya think we'll see another 50 to 100 cut tomorrow.... Ya thinketh....? Cause this market "STINKETH".

    Good Luck,

    Econolicious

    ReplyDelete
  2. "We have defences against a slump"
    Fiscal Deficit Spending (inflation)
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8de2cd2-c51b-11dc-811a-0000779fd2ac.html

    You know all this talk of deflation is something that is not going to happen. They have sat and watched the most monsterious ponsi debt boom ever (see pimcos paul mccully on boom and Minskey bust), by not restricting credit to stop an obvoius bubble as they 'do not know how to spot one', and will now bail these debtors out via inflation.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ...and will now bail these debtors out via inflation.

    I think we are seeing attempts at that, and have not seen the last of those. But I don't see how it will work -- the mechanics of it. The main problem seems to be bad debt -- bad mortgage-backed debt gets the most attention, but there is in general a lot of at risk debt out there. In general money is created ('inflation') via the creation of debt. But that's just the problem: there is already too much debt, and a general unwillingness or inability to assume any more, and renewed risk aversion (i.e. the commonsense reaction to bad debt) means it cannot be sold anymore either. I guess the Fed could just start making people's mortgage and car and credit card payments for them.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Creating inflation on purpose is a much more difficult proposition than 99.9% of the people think.

    I'll have a post on this topic tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hel,

    I don't disagree with your points. However, I do have a question.

    Every quarter I expect to see a flattening out or low-single-digit growth (say, 3 to 4%) in total debt when I look at the Z.1 and every quarter I am astounded by continuing increases of 9 or 10%.

    How can assets deflate on a wide scale when total debt continues to zoom upwards?

    ReplyDelete
  6. How can assets deflate on a wide scale when total debt continues to zoom upwards?

    Just because the asset loses value doesn't mean the amount borrowed to purchase it goes down.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hel, great blog, keep up the good work.

    This train of thought seems non sequitur to me.

    "Almost the entire world has accepted the capitalist laissez-faire model, theoretically allowing the invisible hand to guide profits ever higher, without meddlesome government interference."

    Eighty odd years of rigged interest rates and 20 years of the Greenspan put don’t equate to laissez-faire in my book.

    Government interference made this problem but more enlightened government interference is suppoed to fix it? It doesn't work for me.

    I don’t think that’s dogma, it’s more akin to first principles.

    ReplyDelete
  8. About laissez faire..

    Simple example - we know that 90% of the sub-prime mess would never have occurred had regulators been more active. Instead, we got unchecked greed, which is one of the problems with invisible hands.

    In addition to free markets (i.e. invisible hands), the hand of the regulator must exists, very visible and very heavy, when needed.

    Regards,
    H.

    ReplyDelete
  9. "Just because the asset loses value doesn't mean the amount borrowed to purchase it goes down."


    Consider the following.

    1. A pays 10 units for a property by borrowing 10 units from B.

    2. A's holdings go down by 20% and are now 8 units.

    3. B continues to show 10 units as assets on its books.

    Net change in total assets of A and B is +2 units (relative to what it was before A bought the property with credit from B).

    This leaves us with net asset inflation until B marks to market, at which point there will be net asset deflation.

    However net asset deflation should show up in the total credit market debt.

    ReplyDelete
  10. for us plain thinkers --

    re inflation/deflation: what is it called when the prices of everything one consumes goes up, while the 'prices' of things one holds (because one expects/hopes them to increase in value) goes down?

    ReplyDelete
  11. "The invisible hand giveth and invisible hand taketh away." Econolicious the Heretic.

    ReplyDelete
  12. "What is it called when the prices of everything one consumes goes up, while the 'prices' of things one holds (because one expects/hopes them to increase in value) goes down?"

    Poverty.

    ReplyDelete
  13. "What is it called when the prices of everything one consumes goes up, while the 'prices' of things one holds (because one expects/hopes them to increase in value) goes down?"


    Bloody fornication....?

    Econo

    ReplyDelete
  14. "What is it called when the prices of everything one consumes goes up, while the 'prices' of things one holds (because one expects/hopes them to increase in value) goes down?"

    Misallocation of resources.

    Although poverty is a pretty good answer too.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Now I know the official Soc Gen story is itself a fraud.

    http://cryptogon.com/

    ReplyDelete
  16. anon @ January 28, 2008 5:36 PM,

    Eighty odd years of rigged interest rates and 20 years of the Greenspan put don’t equate to laissez-faire in my book.

    The neo-laissez-faire has for some time now been known as neoliberalism, which should not be confused with modern liberalism but more on the order of Margeret Thatcher's dictum: There is no alternative (TINA) [to free market capitalism], which was echoed by Reagan and, soon after, Gorbachev, others.

    All in all, a statement of dominant class despair and greed. Despair generated by the ending of capitalism's 'Golden Age' and the struggling greed to accumulate more at any cost.

    Post World War II economic history can be thought of as evolving within two distinct political-economic regimes. The high growth Golden Age was based on socially or politically ‘embedded’ domestic markets, government responsibility for aggregate demand growth, and state control over cross-border economic activity.

    It lasted until the early 1970s, to be replaced, after a decade of turbulence, by the Neoliberal Regime, built on deregulation, liberalization, privatization, and ever-tighter global integration. The Neoliberal Regime took root in the 1980s and consolidated in the 1990s.

    It has now been in place long enough to permit a preliminary analysis and evaluation of its
    economic performance.

    Proponents of liberalization argued that once government distortions were removed from global markets and the benefits of the new information based technological revolution were free to flow around the globe, higher growth, accelerated
    productivity gains, and declining unemployment would follow.

    Financial liberalization would lead to lower interest rates and higher global investment, and money and technology would flow from the capital and knowledge rich advanced nations to the opportunity rich poorer countries, closing the economic gap that separated them.

    Unfortunately, Neoliberalism’s promised benefits have yet to materialize, at least not for the majority of the world’s people. Global income growth has slowed, productivity growth has deteriorated, real wage growth has declined, inequality has risen in most countries, the less developed nations outside East Asia have fallen even further behind the advanced, and average unemployment is higher.

    Real global GDP growth averaged 4.9%a year in the Golden Age years from 1950 through 1973, but dropped to 3.4% annually in the unstable period between 1974 and1979.

    Dissatisfied with the instability, inflation, low profits and falling financial asset prices of the 1970s, advanced country elites pushed hard for a switch to a more business friendly political-economic system; global Neoliberalism was the result.

    World GDP growth averaged 3.3% a year in the
    early Neoliberal period of the 1980s, then slowed dramatically to 2.3% from 1990-99 as Neoliberalism strengthened, making the 1990s by far the slowest growth decade of the post war era.
    2
    The question addressed in this essay is: why do the structures and practices of Neoliberalism generate such slow global growth?


    See: http://www.people.umass.edu/crotty/assa-final-jan00.pdf

    Beyond which I would note that - other than in theory and ideology - a pure laissez-faire capitalism has never existed, nor will it.

    ReplyDelete
  17. "Thanks for the good article. The author points to a number of factors that will help move company for the next phase of the company's development.
    If you are interested in balanced scorecard metrics in business, check this web-site to learn more about Metrics

    http://www.business-development-metrics.com"

    ReplyDelete
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