Saturday, February 2, 2008

Painting Stories: In Memoriam Moe

The virtual ink hasn't yet dried on the FOMC's one-two punch of rate cuts (125 bp in 8 days) and the "market" is back calling for more. According to the Fed funds options market, the probability of a cut in March is 90%, with the chance of a 75 bp cut rising to 30% - equal to that for a 25 or 50 bp cut (see chart below).


In contrast to Greenspan's previous gradualism (he rarely moved by more than 25 bp), the Fed's current actions reflect Mr. Bernanke's choice for an aggressive monetary style, shaped by Milton Friedman's theories and his own academic work. Both interpret the Great Depression as the result of hesitant monetary policies in the face of financial market turmoil, instead of unsupportable asset bubbles and severe socio-economic imbalances in income and wealth.

The outcome is that the Fed now pays much more attention to financial market behavior than anything else. Indeed, the latest FOMC announcement could have been written by a broker's investment policy committee; the very first sentence after announcing the new rates is: "Financial markets remain under considerable stress...".

I won't expand on the danger of thus getting caught in a knee-jerk spiral of policy action - reaction, but focus instead on the quality and significance of market data, used to inform the Fed's market-driven decisions.
For example, who determines the option prices that are used to calculate the probabilities shown above, and which are then interpreted by the Fed as "the market expects us to..." ?

In other words, who's "painting" the picture that the Fed sees? Let me tell you a story...

When I was starting my career in finance I had the great good fortune to sit next to an old gentleman who started working in Wall Street one month before the 1929 Crash. In an uninterrupted career that spanned decades - he only stopped to fight in WWII - he made and lost several small fortunes and finally learned enough to become comfortably rich.

When I met him, Moe was well past retirement age and didn't have to work for a living, but came to the office daily anyway. As he succintly put it: "What else am I going to do?". He was happily married to a gracious and elegant lady, so the the usual excuse of avoiding marital distress didn't apply; perhaps being out of the house kept it that way... In any case, Moe's position in the firm was assured by tradition, honor and, I suspect, not a little fear of the age discrimination laws. Upper management kept hinting he should retire voluntarily - they gave him a gold watch, twice - but he just shrugged them off. And kept the watches.

I learned a lot about markets from Moe that isn't to be found in any formal training course or book - save the classic Reminiscences of A Stock Operator, which he could have easily written himself, anyway. He didn't share financial theories, analyses or models with me, just hard practical facts about people and how to battle for a buck on the Street. (He also told me stories about Ziegfeld girls, but they can't be repeated here.)

One morning, he glanced over his newspaper and saw me poring over the double tome of Daily Graphs. "You see anything in there you like?", he asked. Naturally, I was flattered and started spewing out the usual gobbledygook about technical formations, indicators, angles and the like. He listened patiently. When I finished, with what must have been the look of a puppy expecting a treat on my face, he said: "Let me tell you a story".

"When I was about your age and full of piss and vinegar, I too looked at charts, thinking I could figure it all out by looking at pictures. One day, I even approached a big speculator and solicited his business by recommending something out of a chart. He asked me what I saw and I told him all about the picture - the same as you just did. When I finished, the guy gave me a shark smile and said, "Son, I'm the guy painting the picture you're looking at - now git". Moe stopped right there and went back to reading his newspaper.

I have never forgotten Moe, rest his soul. He comes to mind every time I see a chart, an analysis or a particular "action" in a market. For instance, when I look at the above Fed fund implied probabilities, I wonder... Who exactly is doing the "implying"?

And I also wonder...has Mr. Bernanke ever met a "Moe"?

35 comments:

  1. In other words, some people 'proact' (it ought to be a word), and others react; and often the aim of those who 'proact' is to elicit a certain reaction.

    When you think of Fed chairman you think: the 'insidest' of all insiders. If there is a game on (and I do think the markets are gamed, the PPT being just one example), then he's in on it. Then you realize he may be, in some case, just a willing dupe. They've read him and they're playing him (so he isn't in on every game).

    I go back and forth on the guy. When you hear him speak he seems sincere, and says nice-sounding, articulate things.

    But his actions seem like those of a Wall St lackey, e.g. that 'emergency' 75bp cut. And if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

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  2. I am always very leery of pure academics when they are suddenly elevated to positions of authority, where experience of a practical nature is a must.

    In this case, not only is he being read by the Street, he truly BELIEVES in what he preaches. A Fed Chairman should not be so easy to read by the Street.

    And God save us from sincere preachers who do not question their own faith..they end up being crusaders and massacring millions.

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  3. Re: "I am the one painting those pictures."

    Was Moe saying that technical charts are unimportant -- even irrelevant? There was a video put on the web last year of Jim Cramer talking about how he would use a small amount of money to move stocks/indexes up/down. Is this what the gentleman Moe was talking to was referencing?

    Your story is a good one; but is the point that everything you study -- even Truth itself -- is unimportant or even irrelevant?

    Re: Being able to be read by the Street

    On the one hand, it wold seem like a good policy (transparency). On the other hand, transparency may not be such a good idea when dealing with a psychopath.

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  4. I get the impression that Bernanke and the Wall Street masters he serves are increasingly bewildered at the level of rot in the credit markets and their total inability to get out in front of the impending financial tsunami and prevent a deflationary collapse. Bernanke will soon discover, if he has not already, that short of the federal govt monetizing trillions of dollars worth of bad debt, the credit markets will collapse initiating a depression the likes of which will be unimaginable to the mainstream financial community. He will also learn that, despite his academic understanding of the historical causes of the 1930s depression, the Fed is in fact completely impotent in the face of the risk aversion that has already taken root among lenders and borrowers in both the banking and shadow banking systems.

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  5. That picture you are seeing is the picture of fear, the flight to safety, The FED follows the bond market it does not lead. The bond market reacts and as the data changes so do the bond trades. The FED's actions so far are not surprising.

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  6. I want to hear about the Ziegfeld girls. C'mon dish.

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  7. Okie lawyer, what he is saying by recounting that story has NOTHING to do with illustrating that "The Truth" (what ever that may be) is irrelevant; it has to do with where the truth lies, and it doesn't lie very reliably in a chart. Question: Did you ever see the movie Truman, or perhaps The Matrix?

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  8. Hel,

    Thanks for telling us about Moe. This was a great post!

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  9. Re: Being leery of people who are suddenly elevated to positions of authority

    Ben Bernanke is drawing from the pages of Arthur Burns, that other Ivy League professor whose tenure ended very badly.

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  10. Did you ever see the movie Truman, or perhaps The Matrix?

    I did not see the former and fell asleep early through the latter.

    By the way, I see two listings for Truman. One is a drama starring Gary Sinise and the other is a documentary.

    Or did you mean The Truman Show, which I did see.

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  11. There is nothing more dangerous or destructive than a true believer.

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  12. Yes, pardon my error, okielawyer, The Truman show.

    You may recall that Ed Harris' character, Christof, was the one who painted, so to speak, the phony picture that Truman inhabited and thought represented reality.

    The Matrix had a similar theme, though clearly it was a vastly different sort of picture.

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  13. Hell, said... "who's "painting" the picture that the Fed sees... God save us from sincere preachers who do not question their own faith"

    Amen

    Yet to be fair, I sincerely ask all of you (Hell, Okielawyer, eh, and edwardo): "do any of you see ANY alternative where this would not be the case?"

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  14. Hellasious:

    I am intrigued by your parable about Moe. Would you care to more precisely define the "picture" we're being "shown"?

    I can think of several "pictures" we've been shown lately, including global warming, peak oil, the FF rate, U.S. average real household incomes, debt levels, the DJIA...there's a whole lotta pictures rolling around out there. Some are more amenable to manipulation than others, some are more relevant/pivotal than others.

    You've got our attention. Pray play a few more cards.

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  15. "I learned a lot about markets from Moe that isn't to be found in any formal training course or book - save the classic Reminiscences of A Stock Operator" (by Jesse Livermore)

    I read this book 3 months ago (its available as a PDF on the internet for free - google it)

    The more things change the more they stay the same. The only thing that has changed between when Jesse was operating (1900 onwards)is that he looked at a tape and we look at a screen.

    If you read this book you will never act on a stock tip, trust a broker (or their reports and analysis), or take anything said about a stock by anybody at face value again. You will however, every time, question very deeply what is the real reason behind what is being suggested or said.

    "And God save us from sincere preachers who do not question their own faith..they end up being crusaders and massacring millions"

    Amen to that!

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  16. "The only thing that has changed between when Jesse was operating (1900 onwards)is that he looked at a tape and we look at a screen."

    I forgot - the numbers have a few more zeros attached these days...

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  17. Whatever picture the FED and BB are watching must be frightful.
    When I look at the Fed's flow of funds report and see that they believe that US SFH value is 20 + trillion then it really doesn't mean much to me what these folks believe anymore.
    Given that the rating agencies actually believed that RE went up forever and build models for such foolishness makes me wonder just how far out the FED could be in its thinking and model building.

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  18. "Would you care to more precisely define the "picture" we're being "shown"? "

    How about the following pictures?

    Propping up
    1) stock markets
    2) housing markets
    3) junk bond markets
    4) spending (via fiscal stimulus)
    5) ...

    6) add your choices here
    ...

    ...

    are all for the greater good.

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  19. I didn't meet Moe but I've met Taleb.

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  20. Frankly, I don't see what Bernanke can do to save our financial system. He can lower the interest rates down to 0%, but after that, what else does he have up his sleeve? Print more money?

    If the banks don't loosen up on lending, more money is not going to flow into the system and the housing bubble isn't going to be saved. If banks DO loosen up on the lending, then we get an even bigger housing bubble. They are damned if they do or they don't. Without cheap lending (i.e. money back at closing) people can't afford houses at the price they are at now.

    Maybe they should try for a bubble in car sales next? You know, 0% financing and $5000 cash rebate when you sign the documents.

    Maybe they could give some cheap funding to start-up businesses? That might help too. (That might seriously be a good idea.)

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  21. Thomas Kuhn (The Structure of Scientific Revolutions) wrote about current paradigms in use and emerging paradigms. The former were fiercly defended by the True Believers (aka. sincere preachers) - those who KNOW they are right - so the rest us contrarians are just plain wrong. Period.

    However the emerging paradigm eventually supresses the current one - not slowly and piecemeal, but very rapidly!

    Perhaps what is happening now is a financial/economic paradigm shift. The Financial Community currently in authority will use all of their existing knowledge and skilled incompetence to correct the problem - as they know it!

    Humans are creatures of habit. We are brilliant at Monorail Thinking (ie. hunting), just a little short on abstracting sideways when required.

    Trouble is, 'this time IT IS different', and the problem is beyond their understanding. The other part of this dilema is of course the upcoming congressional elections. Vote hunting time!

    Brian P

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  22. Re: Car bubble next?

    Right now I can get a new Nissan with the following terms:

    1. Zero money down.
    2. Zero interest rate for one year.
    2. No payments at all for a year.

    AKA free use of a car for a year and then.. jingle mail?

    Vroom vroom...

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  23. re: This time "it is" different.

    I totally agree. I have put the Kuhn book up as a recommendation by "anonymous".

    Thanks
    H.

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  24. Hellasious:

    I too was fortunate to have had an "old timer" take me under his wing. His name was Mario and for all intents and purposes he ran our firm "de facto" from an unasuming desk in the trading room. He had no official possition in the firm, however, the respect that he commanded from his wisdom, knowledge and perfect manner, was such that no one dared defy.

    His moto was, "WE ARE THEY". Anyone that's been aroung the hood for a while can tell you who "they" are. You can't see "us", but you know that "we" are there waitinng in the shadows. "THE SECRET HAND".

    Have a great day,

    Econolicious

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  25. AKA free use of a car for a year and then.. jingle mail?

    Vroom vroom...


    OK, H, before you give anybody any bad ideas....

    Firstly, there are no "non-recourse" auto loans. If they repossess, they can always sue for the deficiency to my knowledge.

    Secondly, under the new BAPCPA law, autos cannot be crammed down unless the autos are purchased at least 910 days (about 2.5 years) prior to the filing of a Chapter 13 bankruptcy. So filing bankruptcy won't help either.

    Thirdly, what is the interest rate after that first year? Something tells me it is far higher (much like credit card offers) than it would be if you got it on regular terms. Very few people can pay off any new car within a year.

    So, for most people, buying a car is fraught with more risk.

    Ergo, save and pay cash.

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  26. Re: Legal repercussions of "vroom, vroom"...

    Darn, Okie!

    So much like a lawyer to spoil the fun with all that...well... legal stuff! I mean.. credit over-extension is what A-MER-cuh is all about. I know 'cause Bush tole me to go shoppin' just days after the Twin Towers came down.

    Waz' good for the Prez-den' is good 'nuff fer me.

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  27. Pardon me for being dense, Thai Mc, but what precisely are you asking below?

    Yet to be fair, I sincerely ask all of you (Hell, Okielawyer, eh, and edwardo): "do any of you see ANY alternative where this would not be the case?"

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  28. Edwardo, seems to me that
    someone has to paint the fed's picture.

    The 'practical' may fear the dogmatic (I personally like practical), but the reverse is also true.

    depends on your frame of reference.

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  29. Seems like Greenspan actually was a painter and everyone liked his work that he displayed in the Fed Reserve gallery (at the time). Poor Bernanke is not a painter but has dozens of paintings from many painters to choose from and yet still no one likes what he displays in the Fed Reserve gallery. Even when he displays Greenspan old stuff...

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  30. H:

    I also forgot to mention the tax implications of debt forgiveness.

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  31. Thai, I am of the view that The Fed is clearly a tool of private banking interests. To that, some will say, DUH!, but it is not always so easy to say such a thing since a massive amount of ink has been spilled (by the Fed itself among many others) suggesting that this is not the case. But I think when one cuts through all the rather disingenuous if not down right deceitful piffle, that is exactly what The Fed is, a private bank that by all appearances is under the oversight and control of Congress, but is in fact independent of Congress. To cut to the chase, the folks who paint the picture for The Fed should be fairly obvious, and they are none to concerned about the welfare of the U.S. citizenry.

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  32. As a friend of mine often says: "I don't necessarily disagree with you"

    I'm just not sure who the painters are that really do care about the welfare of US Citizens.

    Nor is it entirely clear to me what 'the welfare of US Citizens' really means.

    I keep running into that old saying by Mark Twain...history doen't repeat itself, but it sure rhymes

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  33. mood

    http://cdn.sobent.com/mp3/pd4u/FrankStanleyGraceNelson-GoodbyeMyHoney.mp3

    http://cdn.sobent.com/mp3/pd4u/AlbertFarrington-ItsaLongLongWaytoTipperary1915a.mp3

    http://cdn.sobent.com/mp3/pd4u/Charleston7-Toodles.mp3

    http://cdn.sobent.com/mp3/pd4u/ClariceVance-GoodbyetoJohnnie.mp3

    http://cdn.sobent.com/mp3/pd4u/Betty_Roche-Trouble_Trouble.mp3

    the moe i knew came from upstate NY, fought in France, became a broker in NYC but left in '31. a very fine man.

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  34. I don't think any of the potential painters give a whit about the welfare of the U.S. citizenry. Far from it. And in my view, the welfare of the citizenry, where financial matters are concerned, would clearly NOT involve systematic debasement of the monetary unit which are FR notes.

    The Fed has most definitely not applied itself to currency integrity throughout its history. Again, far from it.

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  35. One more thing to add.........

    We must distinguish the difference between being a painter and an artist.....

    I wouldn't hire BB, HP or any of their ilk, to paint my house, much less.........................

    Yes, yes, I know.....

    Econolicious

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