tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post1088492443655656656..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: Ding, Dong...It's Been Tried AlreadyHellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-27316689956482397002007-12-18T23:40:00.000+02:002007-12-18T23:40:00.000+02:00I'm guessing demographic trends are going to suppo...I'm guessing demographic trends are going to support tuition increases until about 2010-2012.<BR/><BR/>The peak of the "echo boomers" was born in 1990 and is just about to turn 18. The demand in 2010-2012 will be enourmous as early peak echo boomers won't have matriculated and late peak boomers are still flooding in as freshman.<BR/><BR/>It's going to put a large strain on household finances for boomer parents. Most likely, they are going to need to cut back household spending in other areas which may throw the US in a recession.<BR/><BR/>I pulled some graphs and it was interesting to see how peaks in US births tended to produce recessions about 20-22 years later.<BR/><BR/>http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/babynames/USbirths_2006numident.gif<BR/><BR/>For example, the boomers peaked in about 1960 and we had a serious downturn in 1980. Another small peak in 1970 and we had another downturn in 1990.<BR/><BR/>It's also interesting that college tuitions was one of the few things in those downturns that *didn't* drop in price. In most cases showing strong year-over-year increases in tuition.<BR/><BR/>It may just be a fluke, but there may be something to this demographic stuff.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-19364484030708825622007-12-18T23:21:00.000+02:002007-12-18T23:21:00.000+02:00It's only a loan for short terms.Two weeks.At 4,88...It's only a loan for short terms.<BR/>Two weeks.<BR/>At 4,88% instead of 4,95 before.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-76801923617423897642007-12-18T21:40:00.000+02:002007-12-18T21:40:00.000+02:00Hellasious,Excellent post! People have for a long ...Hellasious,<BR/><BR/>Excellent post! People have for a long while now assumed a condition of limitless credit inflation, which is also to say that they have become progressively less conscious of the possibility, never mind reality, of debt deflation.<BR/><BR/>In saying that, I do not mean exactly what Fisher did in his 1930s paper on same since, by assigning causality to the financial, he neglected real economy weakening prior to the Crash.<BR/><BR/>With our tendency to think in national terms and finance induced short temporal horizons, we easily forget that the global economy has for a long time not performed particularly well even as a massive cloud of claims to its 'rent' has been created, so evidently a rising tension between real and financial which was absolutely guaranteed to reach limits and enter into a process of transformation, of 'de-financialization'.<BR/><BR/>Having said that, and not expecting agreement with his far left political perspective, I would recommend taking a look at Loren Goldner's 1998 and later work on international liquidity crisis and fictitious capital.<BR/><BR/>Una vez mas, Gracias<BR/>y<BR/>Feliz NavidadAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-37497631792566047302007-12-18T19:45:00.000+02:002007-12-18T19:45:00.000+02:00Dear All:Please see tomorrow's post for what is ha...Dear All:<BR/><BR/>Please see tomorrow's post for what is happening re: ECB/money market.<BR/><BR/>BestHellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-70929288061175180952007-12-18T19:14:00.000+02:002007-12-18T19:14:00.000+02:00ECB really demonstrated its "though stance" of 350...ECB really demonstrated its "though stance" of 350 Billion euros.<BR/>I remember monsieur Trichet at the last Davos forum, scolding everybody: "be careful, we will not bailout anyone".<BR/>350 Billion euros is a sum commensurable to the public debt of at least some of the 15 euro contries.<BR/>We now know: we will have no bank failures, no matter how crappy their past loans are. <BR/>No destruction of money and credit.<BR/>Just the slow drippling into the real life world of last years inflation. <BR/>It will take some time.<BR/>Buy now. Anything. You can still grab.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-59252523186210867762007-12-18T17:26:00.000+02:002007-12-18T17:26:00.000+02:00Offering $500 Billion at Below Market Rate seems l...Offering $500 Billion at Below Market Rate seems like a straight bailed out.<BR/><BR/>When does "market rate" mean? Does that means the rate required between banks, that is like 100 basis point higher than the ECB rate? ThanksShawnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08155630920582744324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-71276187215862891802007-12-18T17:04:00.000+02:002007-12-18T17:04:00.000+02:00If a cash infusion of $500B from the ECB is reall...If a cash infusion of $500B from the ECB is really needed, it is a big, big, problem.<BR/><BR/>What do the central bankers know about possible January writedowns that they are not telling us about?<BR/><BR/>And are they making short term loans to let the banks postpone realizing losses for a few more weeks?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45864813092352456422007-12-18T14:28:00.000+02:002007-12-18T14:28:00.000+02:00This Harward change of policy is very interesting....This Harward change of policy is very interesting. But I do not think they are simply liberal.<BR/>I remember somebody (maybe you) posted a picture showing that education suffered inflation the most in the past decades: they should be sailing on a sea of cash by now.... <BR/>It also very timely: increasing difficulties in qualifying for students loans and MEWs gone?<BR/>Take careAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-26207933496619856772007-12-18T14:03:00.000+02:002007-12-18T14:03:00.000+02:00There are still some clever persons working in Har...There are still some clever persons working in Harvard. What a pity that they have been excluded from the Bush administration.Manehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10464686842902277389noreply@blogger.com