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REL="nofollow">A片</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-34700880712744186462008-09-26T13:06:00.000+03:002008-09-26T13:06:00.000+03:00nikedao妮可鞋岛adidasnike运动鞋nikedao妮可鞋岛adidasnike运动鞋ni...<B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">nikedao</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">妮可鞋岛</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">adidas</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">nike</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">运动鞋</A></B><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">nikedao</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">妮可鞋岛</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">adidas</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">nike</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">运动鞋</A></B><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">nikedao</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">妮可鞋岛</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">adidas</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">nike</A></B><BR/><B><A HREF="http://www.nikedao.com" REL="nofollow">运动鞋</A></B>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-54399900815026628022007-12-20T18:53:00.000+02:002007-12-20T18:53:00.000+02:00The dirty secret is exactly waht Dan says: vcoutne...The dirty secret is exactly waht Dan says: vcoutnerparty risk in CDS etc. by hedge funds with no capital cushion. I suppose we syhould be thankful that the monolines have a cushion while the bulk of the hedge funds have "hedges"<BR/><BR/>CDS is a complete house of cards. The systemic risk posed by this is crisis proportions. Why is there 0 discussion of the wealth being sytematically destroyed at all the hedge funds and investment complex that own the products of the sell side securitization churnhouses? Funny now we hear from the brokers and PE that they are rasiing money to buy the distressed assets. So they ride it on the way up, it gets marked down, they repurchase it at a "discount" and show more gains? Does this strike anyone as self dealing? This is a complete shell game and now we have the fed opening up its balance sheet to house this garbage. If the electorate wasn't so out of touch, there might be gaurds in the street versus White House platitudes about Help now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-49614378421840118712007-12-20T08:25:00.000+02:002007-12-20T08:25:00.000+02:00this is only the start of counterparty risk spiral...this is only the start of counterparty risk spiraling downward. there have to be hedge funds and investment banks with tons of this stuff on their books who will bust out. I am thinking LTCM x ??? before it is done.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-2108877874510861432007-12-19T20:09:00.000+02:002007-12-19T20:09:00.000+02:00To CDS TraderRe: basis trade accountingYou will be...To CDS Trader<BR/><BR/>Re: basis trade accounting<BR/><BR/>You will be surprised at the stark difference between accounting rules for what is reported to investors and how accounts are kept internally, eg at a trading desk.<BR/><BR/>As far as ACA is concerned they did the subprime CDO stuff, so...<BR/><BR/>Judging from what is known so far the potential exposures are much larger.<BR/><BR/>...and they just got downgraded by S&P 12 notches from A to CCC. The usual suspects are looking to recapitalized it. Need to keep 'em on life support, otherwise the write-offs will be big.<BR/><BR/>RegardsHellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-38931951339948405462007-12-19T18:19:00.000+02:002007-12-19T18:19:00.000+02:00I read the NYT article on ACA before your posting ...I read the NYT article on ACA before your posting and was going to recommend it but see that you did so.<BR/><BR/>The veins of our borrower-creditor industrial complex are bulging and its eyes popping. Some credit deflation will be a wonderful thing for the long term. One positive outcome could be more democratic decision-making where power of the elites who control monetary, economic and trade policies is reduced. When those who were initially fans of securitizing start having doubts (e.g., Martin Wolf) and those who were initially doubters realize that much of this is fraud, we will return to old-fashioned banking where the loans are held on the books for the entire loan duration and the lender knows the borrower well enough to evaluate the risk. We will return to a day when credit grows to match incomes and not merely to prop up the paper value of assets.<BR/><BR/>Right now, however, all means are being employed to prevent credit deflation because it will reduce the power of the elites (and also reduce their assets and their share of the national income).<BR/><BR/>So, with regard to credit deflation, welcome it. However, the last time I looked, I found Y-o-Y reductions in total debt to be extremely rare events. Even in 1982 when Volcker targeted the money supply (heavens, the "free markets" determined interest rates) total debt went up. We did, however, have slight decrease in total debt in 2001.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-11504200775260536662007-12-19T12:56:00.000+02:002007-12-19T12:56:00.000+02:00From the NYT article:"At the heart of many of the ...From the NYT article:<BR/><I>"At the heart of many of the insurance contracts issued by the company is a popular transaction known as the negative basis trade. For example, a bank holding a bond that paid interest at o.50 percentage point over the London inter-bank offered rate would pay ACA 0.30 percentage point to insure it, pocketing the 0.20 point difference for the life of the contract. Accounting rules allow the banks to book that entire amount as income when the contracts are written.</I><BR/><BR/>I am pretty sure this is completely wrong, you CANNOT book the 20bps as upfront profit. I have looked into trying to achieve this a number of times over the years, but it always boils down to having to mark both the CDS and the bond to market, so whilst it might be 20bps (basis points) today, tomorrow it can be something different.<BR/><BR/>I think the gist of the article is correct though, I'm sure banks will have bought protection from ACA, and are now concerned that the profits on those contracts will have to be written off if ACA were to default.<BR/><BR/>To quantify the numbers:<BR/><BR/>$70bn of contracts<BR/><BR/>lets assume they were contracts of 5 years or so, so we'll call it a duration of 4.<BR/><BR/>Average widening lets assume 50bps (I'm sure it would have been the higher-quality stuff they sold protection on). Although could easily be something wildly different than this.<BR/><BR/>So ACA are down 2 points (that's 2%, 50bps x duration of 4) on $70bn. So $1.4bn.<BR/><BR/>The article mentions Merrill and Bear as two big counterparties to ACA, so lets say that 25% of this is attributable to each bank.<BR/><BR/>So, if ACA went bust, Merrill and Bear would each have to take a write-down of $350mm (25% of $1.4bn).<BR/><BR/>Bad, but not a killer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-53630277115034957102007-12-19T12:47:00.000+02:002007-12-19T12:47:00.000+02:00reg: ACANow imagine what could happen if a bank ha...reg: ACA<BR/><BR/>Now imagine what could happen if a bank has drawn credit insurance from ACA for some CDO´s it owns and - to "insure" against credit risk with ACA - bought some CDS on ACA.<BR/><BR/>It could let ACA first go bankrupt, get they insurance payout on its CDS, put it into a pool to take over/buy the ACA senior claims and recapitalize ACA and payout to itself on its CDO-claim.<BR/>Is this feasible?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com