tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post4222599416136815779..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: Of PIGS And ElephantsHellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-79802340453187028632010-03-07T05:07:08.274+02:002010-03-07T05:07:08.274+02:00I came across the following fascinating blog post ...<a href="http://stefanmikarlsson.blogspot.com/2010/01/lessons-from-depressions-of-ukraine.html" rel="nofollow"> I came across the following fascinating blog post comparing Latvia vs. Ukraine's currency policies</a>.<br /><br />Both are in deep trouble, yet both took opposite approaches- Latvia with a fixed currency peg vs. Ukraine with a floating currency. Latvia is thus in a deflationary depression while Ukraine is in an inflationary one.<br /><br />And here was the line that got my biggest smile: <i><b>"The question of which of these two countries had the biggest drop depends on what measure of GDP change you use."</b></i> ;-)<br /><br />It is what it isThaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-89271248102196920652010-03-01T10:58:01.602+02:002010-03-01T10:58:01.602+02:00This is a very good blog (from my limited perspect...This is a very good blog (from my limited perspective). Sudden Debt - some incisive opinion. thank you and keep it up. Best regards, The PerilMalthusian Perilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-56660773482908981462010-02-28T01:33:22.160+02:002010-02-28T01:33:22.160+02:00"I walk amongst these thieves. I talk to the ..."I walk amongst these thieves. I talk to the brokers."<br /><br />I just shivered. Keep up on your vaccines!Dinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10907199567928816652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-40390494512550870242010-02-27T23:46:45.465+02:002010-02-27T23:46:45.465+02:00I can tell...
I can argue here until I'm blue ...I can tell...<br />I can argue here until I'm blue in the face, appealing to your REASON about the ills of punishment, y'all are not going to change your mind till you get.. CONVERTED. (Careful, I didn't say converted TO, I just said converted...)Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-30053405030188784772010-02-27T20:20:03.915+02:002010-02-27T20:20:03.915+02:00Great post by Steve Waldman (as well as a link to ...Great post by <a href="http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/548.html" rel="nofollow">Steve Waldman (as well as a link to another great post)</a> if you guys have not read it.<br /><br />Interesting that Waldman is suggesting an approach similar to <a href="http://covertrationingblog.com/" rel="nofollow">what we are debating in medicine</a> right now.<br /><br /><i>"To be overt, or not to be over (covert)- that is the question: whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer<br />The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune<br />Or to take arms against a sea of troubles<br />And by opposing end them.</i><br /><br />Maybe the internet will help us achieve some kind of common ground after all?<br /><br />Time will tellThaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-80291869950760031642010-02-27T19:43:40.135+02:002010-02-27T19:43:40.135+02:00Yo
AmenYo<br /><br />AmenThaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-8215444207524753362010-02-27T17:26:50.588+02:002010-02-27T17:26:50.588+02:00"...it's not that they don't know wha..."...it's not that they don't know what they are doing wrong, it's that they don't care."<br /><br />That attitude sometimes extends to those who are entrusted to administer the law as exemplified by govt misrepresentation of<a href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2010/1003.bobelian.html" rel="nofollow"> DNA statistics</a> in some (many?) criminal prosecutions.yoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-20135254407034938662010-02-27T17:12:44.069+02:002010-02-27T17:12:44.069+02:00Thai, you know how much I love provocation.
Yes, w...Thai, you know how much I love provocation.<br />Yes, we have had this conversation many times before.<br />You need to take a look at what I wrote over in the saloon about the advantages/disadvantages of divine right monarchy vs democracy.<br />For your information, I rather like Robin Hood.<br />It is the people at the margins of the social body who make said social body evolve. (Careful, I did not say that all evolution was positive evolution...)<br />I think that y'all will be interested to know that French shrinks in my circles now refer to "hyperadaptive" behavior.<br />That is a nametag to label people whose behavior seems suffocatingly "normal" along the bourgeois line, and are so stifled that they do the métro/boulot/dodo routine 5 days a week (yeah, Thai with those vacations that have got you salivating...) year in and year out. Their conversation sounds like... an accountant's balance sheet (sorry, the accountants among you..).<br />The clincher question is...<br />for those Wall Street traders, brokers, bankers, whatever, their behavior IN THEIR SOCIAL CIRCLE, is completely normal and desirable.<br />And... up until VERY VERY RECENTLY..<br />EVERYBODY WAS APPLAUDING THEM FOR IT !!!<br />And NOW, we are going to tell them that they are perverts/sociopaths ?<br />Gimme a break, you elder brothers out there.<br />I like Robin Hood.<br />But of course, I am the kind of person who can defend Robin Hood and the divine right monarchy at the same time...Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-43183637650775740722010-02-27T16:26:54.137+02:002010-02-27T16:26:54.137+02:00Deb, re: externalities and accepted common values/...Deb, re: externalities and accepted common values/rule (however irrational and totalitarian they may be)...<br /><br />All of us on this blog have had some variant of this conversation more times than I can remember.<br /><br />Okie, FWIW you know I think sociopathy is exists at all socioeconomic levels. And the "Robin Hood" ideal you seem to cling to is amongst the most sociopathic ideal of all imo. Taking from those who follow the rules to give to those who do not (to way oversimplify things) does not create any social cohesion at all in my opinion. <br /><br />But if what Rich is saying is true (and I suspect it is), I do concur with your sentiment on this particular point.<br /><br />The more time I spend on this blog, the more I have come to understand why the observation that war is fractal may be true. Common ground is really really hard to achieve when we have such different kin boundaries. afajensen's love of "keep things local" seems quite wise in this framework.<br /><br />If war does come- when nothing is any different than it was before to add such irony to the whole thing- let's hope it does not happen on our, or our kid's, watch.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-9830698932943831562010-02-27T15:38:37.145+02:002010-02-27T15:38:37.145+02:00But Okie, as far as this is concerned, are you SUR...But Okie, as far as this is concerned, are you SURE that punishment is the best option for a "sociopath" ?<br />(I for one have given up on the nametag game too, while we're at it.)<br />On the difference between "not knowing" and "not caring". Considering the fact that the market ideology prones simplistic solutions of getting rid of employees in order to cut costs, I would say that the vital SOCIAL controls of feeling concern for one's fellow man have been seriously eroded to the point that... many people can no longer empathize, and thus easily commmit actions that they wouldn't if business were conducted in a more face to face manner.<br />How are you expected to "care" if you have your head in a balance sheet all day ?<br />Should ALL of us be required to have the philosophical/psychological capacity to "care" in the face of so much pressure that encourages uncaring ?<br />A little... IDEALISTIC, perhaps, no ?<br />I am not sure that punishment accomplishes anything other than... the animal satisfaction involved in punishing the "bad guys".<br />It does NOT stop these people from doing things again and again. (Most of them, at least.)<br />Not unless you want to... lock them up indefinitely.<br />In which case your bill soon becomes staggering.<br />Whether or not your punishment system is public or private, moreover, or WHO is paying for it.<br />(We all pay for it collectively in the long run.)Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-27386817663775607382010-02-27T14:37:13.304+02:002010-02-27T14:37:13.304+02:00@Debra:
How can deterrence work if... PEOPLE DON&...@Debra:<br /><br /><i>How can deterrence work if... PEOPLE DON'T SEE WHAT THEY ARE DOING WRONG ???<br />Hmm...<br />That is a big question.<br />One that you haven't answered.</i><br /><br />You miss this salient fact: it's not that they don't <i>know</i> what they are doing wrong, it's that they don't <i>care</i>. Do you understand the difference?<br /><br />You are dealing with the mind of a sociopath.<br /><br />Now re-analyze with this in mind.OkieLawyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17071917464425173379noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-9698378569677044202010-02-27T13:38:29.080+02:002010-02-27T13:38:29.080+02:00Oh, Okie, really I am SO SO HAPPY that I don't...Oh, Okie, really I am SO SO HAPPY that I don't live in your (professional) world, and I am not saying this to belittle what you do, I think that really, the perversion of the spirit of the law (or should I say justice ?.... since when did the law ever really have much to do with justice ?...) must make your life hell.<br />The people who ALLOW themselves to see and understand the most are generally the ones who suffer the most from what they see and understand.<br />For the problem of deterrence...<br />Way back when, when I was doing my death penalty activism, I put to use my shrink knowledge to deduce that DETERRENCE is another one of those basically esthetically pleasing, but effectively inadequate ideas/ideologies.<br />The "deterrence" ideology allows people who feel self righteous to channel their aggressivity into the punishment game (why not ? after all, channelling and controlling aggressivity is important for a society, right ?).<br />But... when we take up Thai's "cost/benefit" analyses (lol, Thai, I am using your weapons...), then you have to ask yourself...when I spend over 2M for a death penalty trial with no guarantee that I will get a conviction, JUST WHAT ELSE COULD I BE GETTING FOR THIS MONEY, and is there another way to address this problem that could be better ? (That is called THINKING, by the way...)<br />American culture seems to be even more into having heads roll these days than addressing the problems.<br />That is what I call thinking with one's gonads.<br />(I told my son a long time ago to beware "thinking" with HIS gonads.)<br />How can deterrence work if... PEOPLE DON'T SEE WHAT THEY ARE DOING WRONG ???<br />Hmm...<br />That is a big question.<br />One that you haven't answered.<br />And... if you punish somebody for something that HE doesn't see as wrong, just HOW is he/she going to react to it ?? Will he/she be DETERRED the next time ?<br />On the other hand, if you have a society which has shifted its social control from a system of internal constraints (i.e. religion...) to a system of EXTERNAL constraints ("moralizing" through prison and punishment), you're going to spend a hell of a lot of time and money to punish. With probably fewer results. BECAUSE THE ONLY REASON THAT PEOPLE WILL BEHAVE WILL BE TO AVOID PUNISHMENT. And that, my friends, will necessitate having a society where there is a policeman behind every citizen.<br />Goodbye, freedom. Hello cage.<br />And.. cage + criminality, because how in the hell are you going to PUT a policeman behind every citizen ??? (Just think of all the FILTHY LUCRE that will take.. Mind boggling...) <br />I think that a cost/benefit analysis (LOL LOL) would show you up to be a loser.<br />Counterproductive.<br />You guys REALLY should be reading less social science/economics and MORE philosophy.<br />And by the way... JESUS really was a savvy politician.<br />He understood this stuff...<br />Too bad we don't.Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-59122850860892225972010-02-27T04:04:58.690+02:002010-02-27T04:04:58.690+02:00PIGS is something we have started to hear alot abo...PIGS is something we have started to hear alot about recently - I'm beginning to think they are being used as a different animal - a (scape)goat (see what I did there?!). These Countries may have debt, but they are essentially still developing, and are heavily relient on tourism, which as we know has dropped recently due to the GFC.Tomhttp://www.payoffmystudentloan.net/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-61840777778329640322010-02-27T03:46:00.710+02:002010-02-27T03:46:00.710+02:00correction:
should be "than to speak up....&...correction:<br /><br />should be "<i>than</i> to speak up...."OkieLawyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17071917464425173379noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-63146344441965120982010-02-27T03:44:29.991+02:002010-02-27T03:44:29.991+02:00@ Rich Hartmann:
Imagine practicing law for 12 ye...@ Rich Hartmann:<br /><br />Imagine practicing law for 12 years and knowing what the public never knows.<br /><br />Telling them to shut up when others say that they are incompetent because it is a <i>legal defense</i> to be found so.<br /><br />"Better to be quiet and thought of as a fool then to speak up and remove all doubt."<br /><br />There is a very good <i>legal</i> reason why these guys spread the meme that they are incompetent and foolish.<br /><br />Read between the lines, my friend. Read between the lines.OkieLawyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17071917464425173379noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-14286935935464666962010-02-26T17:36:27.492+02:002010-02-26T17:36:27.492+02:00@ Debra,
The moral hazzard of not holding people ...@ Debra,<br /><br />The moral hazzard of not holding people accountable or even having ANY risk-v-reward factor in place is sooooooooooooooooooooo cyclically damaging.<br /><br />I walk amongst these thieves. I talk to the brokers. They are from another F-ING PLANET!!! Their egos and sense of self importance is only overshadowed by their beliefs of entitlement. That mocking GS quote of: "doing god's work" far and away best describes what most of these guys truly believe.<br /><br />They are like fanatical cult members! Get this... most of the guys I talk (off the record) to tend to blame the poor people who shouldn't have bought houses. They flat out blame the poor for 90% of the whole crisis!<br /><br />We all know that those subprime-ers were a trigger, and piece of the puzzle,but as I argue with them, they see no problem with the higher up enablers, the securitizers, and the launderers of that toxic waste. They act oblivious to the fact that prime, commercial, leveraged borrowers are all just as toxic. They act as if their financial WMDs (swaps, CDO’s etc…) have so little to do with the real problem. <br /><br />I hear it over and over again. They blame the poor, and then they blame the left wing gov’t for enabling the market to give these poor the loans. Nothing, blame wise, falls on these guys. …and even as I say this, they have no problem taking those same poor people’s bad loans, and selling them to low and middle class pension funds for a profit. <br /><br />…and to boot they think of themselves as geniuses for doing so, …and think they are entitled to that stimulus laden bonus off of the profits from these government stabilizing acts of systemic welfare, and even more so, are entitled to their criminal collection of insurance payments derived from the houses they subsequently set on fire. <br /><br />Feet must be held to the flames… and soon. or it will get worse in a hurry. In tough times, the criminals become more ruthless!<br /><br />All the best, <br />Rich Hartmann – Miss AmericaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-15708159266274742182010-02-26T11:02:28.144+02:002010-02-26T11:02:28.144+02:00The personal responsibility problem is a serpent b...The personal responsibility problem is a serpent biting its own tail.<br />One of the great disadvantages of "neo"liberal economic thought (TOTALLY derived from the perversion of Protestant ideals, in my book...) is the OVERSTATEMENT of individual responsibility, and the continued culpabilization of the individual for conditions that the social body itself has created (to keep him in line, of course. As a tactic of social control).<br />A BIG example : at this time the continuous overvaluation of (pseudo) scientific and mathematic skills has made it extremely difficult for people with literary/artistic talents to find or create meaningful work. So.... is the "solution" for all of us to get engineering diplomas ? Even if our gifts do not lie in this direction ? This is in strict contradiction to my credo : it takes all kinds, and ALL of us to make a world. (No exclusion)<br />Your analysis does NOT take into account the fact that it is the SOCIAL BODY ITSELF which has proclaimed that the "individual" is and should be... KING of his own world.<br />Totally responsible for what happens to him.<br />And totally capable of claiming all the credit too.<br />THAT is what is behind the myth of the "self made man". <br />But there is only one problem. Things don't work that way.<br />But I keep telling everybody that we are wasting time and resources in this futile attempt to assign culpability (the blame game).<br />And singling out the "people who are taking advantage of the system" to punish them, too.<br />We would be better off ...tending our own garden and not looking around so hard to see what our "neighbor" is doing (wrong...)Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-28612257835284558712010-02-26T02:51:52.044+02:002010-02-26T02:51:52.044+02:00And Deb, FWIW, I am not commenting on safety nets ...And Deb, FWIW, I am not commenting on safety nets as they are clearly necessary.<br /><br />My links were on Europe's love of vacations.<br /><br />To imply that commenting on European leisure is akin to attacking "safety net" programs does show how our two continents view such things differently.<br /><br />... As I said before, the definition of what constitutes "trouble" is a clearly a moving target. ;-)Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-50399915926175703292010-02-26T02:32:10.347+02:002010-02-26T02:32:10.347+02:00fajensen- if you interpret my links as somehow bei...fajensen- if you interpret my links as somehow being a competitive, my apologies. This is not even close to my intentions. I think I have been quite clear there are many things I think America is doing particularly poorly on. <br /><br /><br />And "no" Deb, I would not be keen. But I would also not understate the role of personal responsibility in the need for safety nets in the first place. The need for a safety net is largely a function of how much and how often you get yourself into trouble. And the degree you get yourself into trouble is clearly related to the degree you think there is a safety net in the first place. It is an endless catch-22.<br /><br />Further the definition of "trouble" exactly is an endlessly changing target. And to add to this quagmire, many of the people preaching for more safety nets seem particularly keen on having someone else pay for them.<br /><br />But again "no", I would not.<br /><br />It is what it is.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-64765707919792106932010-02-25T19:27:48.685+02:002010-02-25T19:27:48.685+02:00Thai, I really dislike chest beating in all forms,...Thai, I really dislike chest beating in all forms, and I think I feel like gagging at this time at the slightest hint of any form whatsoever of "my_ is bigger than yours".<br />The United States of America is an Enlightenment experiment that started on European soil.<br />I hate to burst them thar bubbles, but I definitely think that this is true.<br />And to this extent, the fate of the European Union is intimately tied to the fate of the U.S.A., and vice versa.<br />It would be wise to remember this, in my opinion.<br />I suppose that it is my sometimes passionate nature that makes me want to confront you, Thai on the issue of "if it were YOUR CHILD who was set to fall through all the safety nets, would you be so keen on trying to see this in a cost-benefit analysis ?".<br />Or... does it seem IMPOSSIBLE to you that YOUR CHILD ever could fall through all those safety nets ??<br />I'll get to the links later. Mea culpa, I have not yet read them. <br />But I'm having a shitty day...Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-24500448405665921062010-02-25T16:34:09.907+02:002010-02-25T16:34:09.907+02:00A twitter feed just reported 6 hours ago that all ...A twitter feed just reported 6 hours ago that all flights in and out of Athens, Greece have been canceled and all attractions have been closed.<br /><br />Hell, can you confirm or deny this report/rumor?OkieLawyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17071917464425173379noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-48921655508265297342010-02-25T15:11:36.443+02:002010-02-25T15:11:36.443+02:00@ fajensen
I thought you might enjoy the followin...@ fajensen<br /><br />I thought you might enjoy the following Jefferson quote:<br /><br />“Men by their constitutions are naturally divided into two parties:<br /><br />1. Those who fear and distrust the people, and wish to draw all powers from them into the hands of the higher classes.<br /><br />2. Those who identify themselves with the people, have confidence in them, cherish and consider them as the most honest and safe, although not the most wise depository of the public interests.<br /><br />In every country these two parties exist, and in every one where they are free to think, speak, and write, they will declare themselves.” –Thomas Jefferson to Henry Lee, 1824. <br /><br /><br />You would know much better than I so I pulled the following link on <a href="http://www.eu-oplysningen.dk/euo_en/spsv/all/1/" rel="nofollow">the purpose of the European Union</a>- would you agree these were its original founders' intents?<br /><br />... It does kind of sounds like "pick up" to me.<br /><br />For <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2010/01/rise-of-european-leisure.html" rel="nofollow">if this is true</a>, it sounds like you Europeans have other problems that are just as big as your banks. <a href="http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/11/us-share-of-world-gdp-remarkably.html" rel="nofollow">And while relative changes in population growth between our two regions might explain some of this</a>, I do not think it explains all of this change- assuming the two are independent of each other which is a big assumption indeed.<br /><br />Be wellThaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-33759690270552679352010-02-25T04:39:52.039+02:002010-02-25T04:39:52.039+02:00@ fajansere: "Stability is greatly overvalued...@ fajansere: "Stability is greatly overvalued here"<br /><br /><br />Well said<br /><br />Though I might ask what you mean when you say "someone to pick you up when you fall" in the context of <br />"Stability is greatly overvalued here"?<br /><br />For while I think I completely agree with the sentiment, there seems to me to be an awfully big devil hidden within the details of such a seemingly small and well intentioned comment. <br /><br />How much pick up are you talking about? And who gets this pick up when they fall? And how often are they allowed to fall before someone is not there to pick them up? And what kind of falls are rescued?<br /><br />Isn't "pick up" what Brussels was created to provide? ;-)Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-41495412151843937972010-02-25T00:12:15.394+02:002010-02-25T00:12:15.394+02:00I too do NOT see France taking any... COURAGEOUS s...I too do NOT see France taking any... COURAGEOUS steps to boost the economy.<br />"Everybody" seems to be looking from side to side to see what the neighbor is doing, closing their eyes, saying a prayer, and hoping that the status quo (excuse me, I meant, structural ajustement, substraction down to the pound of flesh...) will hold on and save the day.<br />There is a certain amount of job creation going on. It is mostly in the sector of... training people to find jobs. Spiffy, huh ? Convenient ?<br />I personally don't like conspiracy theories, but pooh poohing them in the age of Thales and Hypervisor is unwise, in my book.<br />Interpol is joining forces all over Europe now.<br />Convenient, huh ?<br />We will soon have an EMU AND a POLICE union.<br />Just what our grandfathers dreamed of...Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45741413408406636352010-02-24T16:42:41.626+02:002010-02-24T16:42:41.626+02:00Unsubstantiated conspiracy theory.Unsubstantiated conspiracy theory.Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.com