tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post4587667710285279386..comments2024-02-24T19:10:00.395+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: Why It Is NOT The 1930's: Reader ContestHellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45766868515569348332009-03-16T15:10:00.000+02:002009-03-16T15:10:00.000+02:00Would you say the major difference between the dep...Would you say the major difference between the depression of the 1930's and today's is the bailout money? Not sure, that's why I'm not in the contest. Did Warren Buffet really say the economy has fallen off the cliff? I was under the impression that he is still bullish on the stock market. <BR/> <BR/>Evelyn Guzman<BR/>http://www.debtchallenges.com (If you want to visit, just click but if it doesn’t work, copy and paste it onto your browser.)Randeghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01323089616888583745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-41262005500039271872009-03-15T16:45:00.000+02:002009-03-15T16:45:00.000+02:00iPods. And constant media coverage of the mess.Tha...iPods. <BR/><BR/>And constant media coverage of the mess.<BR/><BR/>That's about it.<BR/><BR/>dark1pAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45404990435717649552009-03-14T18:42:00.000+02:002009-03-14T18:42:00.000+02:00This time around, we won't plow crops under to mai...This time around, we won't plow crops under to maintain commodity prices - Instead, we'll turn them into BEER.Dave Narbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10773693145577366704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-70545256675529128632009-03-14T00:21:00.000+02:002009-03-14T00:21:00.000+02:001. The printing presses run much faster in 2009.2....1. The printing presses run much faster in 2009.<BR/><BR/>2. It's not 1929, 2000 was the analog of the crash. This is 1933 and we have just started the FDR rally. <BR/><BR/>3. US is more like Britain in the 1930s. Empire in decline, heavily in debt. <BR/><BR/>4. China is the manufacturer that US was in the 1930s.<BR/><BR/>5. There is less oil in 2009 and more users.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-64721627637940564882009-03-13T20:09:00.000+02:002009-03-13T20:09:00.000+02:00Computers.Computers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45997788502524024132009-03-13T12:25:00.000+02:002009-03-13T12:25:00.000+02:00Today we have a Fed boss who's an expert on the Gr...Today we have a Fed boss who's an expert on the Great Depression, and who will do everything in his power to prevent this recession from degrading into a depression.<BR/><BR/>Back then, the Fed adopted a "Let's sit back and let the market fix itself" strategy, which failed miserably.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-46202335746378799852009-03-12T23:24:00.000+02:002009-03-12T23:24:00.000+02:00props for Asterix referenceprops for Asterix referenceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-28171260213231441042009-03-12T21:11:00.000+02:002009-03-12T21:11:00.000+02:00The major difference is ...I can get a suit from m...The major difference is ...<BR/>I can get a suit from more places<BR/>with a ounce of gold than i could in 1929 with a ounce of gold...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-46822458594434782432009-03-12T20:29:00.000+02:002009-03-12T20:29:00.000+02:00The major difference is that in 1930 the world's p...The major difference is that in 1930 the world's population was 2 billion and largely rural, and in 2009 the population is now 6.7 billion and tipped this decade to become majority-urban. Any depression now will ultimately be inflationary, not deflationary.www.gregor.ushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14172143997858920566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-72457583343613257852009-03-12T17:45:00.000+02:002009-03-12T17:45:00.000+02:00One of the differences that effects the market, ot...One of the differences that effects the market, other than numerous others mentioned in the comments is the speed of creation and transmission of information. <BR/>We create information and digest information at alarming speeds these days.<BR/>I bet that if there was a "Roubini" in the depression days, many probably did not know about him. I think this will effect the way the bubble of uncertainity is created and destroyed. <BR/>Contrarian indicators are used by sophisticated traders and even in 2001's bear market lot of ordinary investors never discussed these. These days everyone talks about them as if they are market's rules.<BR/>This is one of the reasons why we might not see the capitulation at the bottom that everyone has been anticipating.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-13837321388624846172009-03-12T15:53:00.000+02:002009-03-12T15:53:00.000+02:00The major difference is in the great depression th...The major difference is in the great depression the customers did not trust their banks; today, the banks [regardless of how liquid they are] do not trust their customers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-17165747655603620412009-03-12T06:19:00.000+02:002009-03-12T06:19:00.000+02:00from my twitter a couple weeks ago: why this isn'...from my twitter a couple weeks ago: why this isn't USA 1930's: they had a gold standard, a trade surplus, little debt as a nation, no credit cards, and no massive debt.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-23559205533421623002009-03-12T05:05:00.000+02:002009-03-12T05:05:00.000+02:00The major difference is the US had a national debt...The major difference is the US had a national debt of 16 Billion. Today it's 10 Trillion. Then 60% of the population lived in a rural setting. I don't know what percent does now, but those that don't will starve sooner than those who do.<BR/><BR/>I'll bet you didn't know the price of oil doubled 1931-1939.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-46580956290908053522009-03-12T05:02:00.000+02:002009-03-12T05:02:00.000+02:00The major difference is....US of 2008 is like Germ...The major difference is....<BR/><BR/>US of 2008 is like Germany of 1920s, and this crisis will be the terminal one unlike 1930s.<BR/><BR/>Hell, Remember who shorted oil around $150, don't you? :)Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-1737959277682763762009-03-12T03:19:00.000+02:002009-03-12T03:19:00.000+02:00It's 2009 and not 1929.No one knows what's gonna h...It's 2009 and not 1929.<BR/><BR/>No one knows what's gonna happen. It's only just begun.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-65122511887526517862009-03-12T02:57:00.000+02:002009-03-12T02:57:00.000+02:00* We had Allen Greenspan steering this ship* Debt ...* We had Allen Greenspan steering this ship<BR/>* Debt to GDP is higher<BR/>* Politicians absolutely caving to financiers<BR/>* Complex financial instruments that allowed investment bankers, hedge funds, banks, to create/hoard mass amounts of ficticious wealth that will be bought/paid for by the working class<BR/>* Debtor nation (last I checked the UK was the debtor nation during the GD I, and had a worse go of it)<BR/>* Natural resources stretched<BR/>* Larger sense of entitlement<BR/>* We are armed to the teeth - yet we can't win a war in a country that has been already bombed to the stone age<BR/>* We had a Treasury Secretary that mentioned Martial Law if he did not get $700M to distribute accordingly<BR/>* A greater percentage of people employed in totally unproductive endeavors<BR/><BR/><BR/>Similarities:<BR/>* The Federal Reserve<BR/>* The middle class taking it on the chin<BR/>* Tent cities - we are in the early stages of this crisis and some locations are stretched to provide basic necessities to people<BR/><BR/>IT IS GOING TO BE WORSE.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-17087415584920518092009-03-12T01:28:00.000+02:002009-03-12T01:28:00.000+02:00Is it a "vote early, vote often" contest?1... tele...Is it a "vote early, vote often" contest?<BR/><BR/>1... television<BR/><BR/>2... basic necessities were a much larger fraction of income/savings.<BR/><BR/>3... we had a lot less "spare tires" than we have today<BR/><BR/>4... birth controlThaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-80224167022917341142009-03-12T00:12:00.000+02:002009-03-12T00:12:00.000+02:00dweama said...The major difference is (through thi...dweama said...<BR/>The major difference is (through this two-year old's eyes) that: the men all wore hats, and they were all sooo serious.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-8345102083791136572009-03-11T23:47:00.000+02:002009-03-11T23:47:00.000+02:00The major difference is that in the 30's we were e...The major difference is that in the 30's we were entirely energy self-sufficient and even exported oil. Now we import over 60% of our liquid energy requirements from a declining resource base.<BR/><BR/>The fiat/gold standard would be my second choice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45442169508716296302009-03-11T23:46:00.000+02:002009-03-11T23:46:00.000+02:001: Lack of a gold standard allows for the over-le...1: Lack of a gold standard allows for the over-leveraging of both the Fed Reserve and Treasury balance sheets. This was certainly not possible under full convertibility pre-1934 and externally after confiscation.<BR/><BR/>Interesting times. My vote goes for 1951. The year started off with 0% inflation and ended the year at 9.1% (US), 20% (Germany), and 30% (Sweden).<BR/><BR/>Best regards,<BR/><BR/>thirstyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-37476361257868105582009-03-11T22:49:00.000+02:002009-03-11T22:49:00.000+02:00The Great Depression resulted from the instabiliti...The Great Depression resulted from the instabilities at the start of the 20th century price revolution while we're now at its end.<BR/><BR/>BettyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-62404770852933065302009-03-11T22:33:00.000+02:002009-03-11T22:33:00.000+02:00The major difference is time to market for new pro...The major difference is time to market for new productive business opportunities that don't require bricks and mortar to function.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-31577403689076858452009-03-11T22:21:00.000+02:002009-03-11T22:21:00.000+02:00Difference is because now they manipulate all the ...Difference is because now they manipulate all the "official" data to such an extent that it would literally take 50% unemployment and negative 50% GDP to equal the figures of the 25% unemployment and negative 25% GDP of the GD.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-30382106511707034342009-03-11T21:51:00.000+02:002009-03-11T21:51:00.000+02:00Two big differences between now and the 30's are t...Two big differences between now and the 30's are the lack of bank runs due to FDIC insurance protecting depositors and the fact that we aren't simultaneously experiencing an ecological disaster like the dust bowl.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10172733417921771202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-36113514175628537332009-03-11T21:36:00.000+02:002009-03-11T21:36:00.000+02:00Alessandro for the win, I think. The nature of the...Alessandro for the win, I think. The nature of the debt is different now.<BR/><BR/>And yes, many people with basic math skills and an internet connection had sense enough to know when to get out -- or at least got out somewhere that looks genius from where we are now. They are not talking about it much, but I know of at least 3 near retirement boomers that did just that and don't want their newly poor friends to realize it. They are playing poor like everybody else but sitting on their pile of shrewdly kept gains.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com