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I do not buy the implications many doomers in the Peak Oil camp make.<BR/><BR/>Also, please pop by <BR/><A HREF="http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/" REL="nofollow">London Banker</A> for a chat from time to time.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-48692499865874530292008-08-02T05:44:00.000+03:002008-08-02T05:44:00.000+03:00Thai & Yoyomo,(I swear I have thought before I...Thai & Yoyomo,<BR/><BR/>(I swear I have thought before I responded)<BR/><BR/>So there was this psychologist named William Perry who came up with "stages of knowledge" or some such thing. He studied undergrads. The basic concept seemed to be that being unsure of something was uncomfortable.<BR/><BR/>100% Sure(belief)=data and logic path sound (intellect)= happy (feeling)= energetic pursuit of goals (behavior)<BR/><BR/>Probable= data imperfect, logic path hazy, but seems fairly reasonable= nervous= laissez faire functioning<BR/><BR/>Coin Toss= data difficult to find, trust source, experts contradicting each other, no logic path= hostile, bleak= frozen in headlights<BR/><BR/>So simple voters liked simple Bush since he was 100% sure so they could be 100% sure. Kerry was complicated; it didn't make them feel happy. Obama is smart and learned from Kerry. Give simple happy speeches, but secretly think like an intellectual so you can actually run the country. Kind of Machiavellian.<BR/><BR/>To get a society this complex you need serious division of labor. You have to trust that the guys in the other cogs of the machine are clever and have integrity.<BR/><BR/>But to sum up these streams of thought, a) I had some beliefs that the other cogs were fine and I was content, b) some data was swirling around that made me unsure, c) the more I delve into any area the more squirrely I get. So I'll hedge my bets and prepare for a spectrum of possibilities. Nice that Dr. Doom has found his own inner peace, but he doesn't seem to take the CO2 atmospheric level data into his logic path. Or nuclear waste.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45369113734365330742008-08-01T04:01:00.000+03:002008-08-01T04:01:00.000+03:00Thai,If Earth's future salvation depends on motiva...Thai,<BR/>If Earth's future salvation depends on motivated altruists like Dr. Doom (who's been voluntarily conserving and re-cycling for 30yrs) then we haven't got a prayer. Most people are like the monkey with his fist stuck in jar but won't let go of the copra.yoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-18442175130920402632008-07-31T16:29:00.000+03:002008-07-31T16:29:00.000+03:00Dink,I am on Greenie's side on this one.The world ...Dink,<BR/><BR/>I am on Greenie's side on <A HREF="http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2006/07/307-confessions-of-ex-doomer.html" REL="nofollow">this one</A>.<BR/><BR/>The world has been in peak oil since the day oil was discovered, the world will always be in peak oil. <BR/><BR/>Think about it before you respond...<BR/><BR/><BR/>Hell, I have noted there has been a lot of talk about how we are in a paradox of debt repayment vs. economic growth; even a small reduction in debt/small increase in savings, will bring recession.<BR/><BR/>But I ask you to then point out to me the fallacy of the following opposing view: if investment productivity improves, can't we have continued permagrowth even without debt reduction?<BR/><BR/>And if that is true, might we be able to reduce debt AND improve investment productivity simultaneously (say by giving our money to people/businesses/governements who are: 1. More trustworthy, 2. Less 'selfs serving', 3. Using the money for businesses that actually make sense (no crazy internet start-up ideas, etc...). <BR/><BR/>Then <B><I>might</I></B>we get a period of 'flat' economic activity without actually recession?<BR/><BR/>I still get the sense from your posts that you fail to recognize just how important issues of trust and faith in our fellow men really are when it comes to economics. (At least to me) you still seem to underappreciate the power of teamwork.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-54992545595381377292008-07-31T12:16:00.000+03:002008-07-31T12:16:00.000+03:00Thai,Earth's carrying capacity before fossil f...Thai,<BR/>Earth's carrying capacity before fossil fuels was around 1B and will probably go back to less than that after FF because of soil erosion, not a lovely thought for anyone with young children but it's a possibility that can't be safely ignored. People who think like Dink might have the edge on those that can't contemplate global catastrophe.<BR/><BR/>I read the Das link (thanks) and Mike Hudson has the same thesis on CounterPunch (July15). Hel seems to think that the US can still salvage the $ but I don't see how. Bailing F&F would tank the $ and stiffing foreign creditors would accomplish the same result via different route. Just like peak pop, the only way for peak $ is down. Nobody loves a deadbeat. <BR/><BR/>WRT infidelity, obviously a big violation of integrity but not always comparable to fraud because the motivating factor can be so different. A cold or cruel spouse can drive an otherwise decent partner to look for comfort elsewhere and for some divorce is even more devastating (BTW, I'm not channeling personal experience). That said, persons of low integrity are far more prone to cheat on their spouses.<BR/><BR/>Greenie,<BR/>The cars on his route to work are 95% single occupant and the buses are half empty, doesn't sound like Europe. He goes to the beach for the weekend & goes sailing so he's near the coast and the weather permits 10m of biking so that rules out S.Cal, Gulf or SE (too hot). He's mentioned trams so maybe SanFran or PacNW (does Seattle have light rail?) Anyhow, I'm not interested in his current whereabouts, I just want to know if he's had experience in international finance and how much. That would most likely color one's view of the world and the US' position in it.<BR/><BR/>jacques,<BR/>lighten up, you want daily posts? there's always SAR, Jesse's Cafe, AutomaticEarth, NakedCapitalism, TheBigPicture, Mish, RussWinter, etc. etc.yoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-80312464279715682872008-07-31T11:13:00.000+03:002008-07-31T11:13:00.000+03:00greenie said . . .“Hell is probably from France or...greenie said . . .<BR/><BR/>“Hell is probably from France or UK. He does not sound American, and his knowledge of the world centers around Europe.”<BR/><BR/>Hell! Maybe he’s a “goddamn commie”!<BR/><BR/>After eight days this post has collapsed into a collection of trolls yacking to each other. It’s almost as bad as what you expect from Clusterf**knation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-4405737970473540852008-07-31T10:17:00.000+03:002008-07-31T10:17:00.000+03:00KD is a nut case. His financial knowledge is not a...KD is a nut case. His financial knowledge is not as good as it sounds from his videos or posts. Put your guards on, when to deal with him.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-65728800536504954762008-07-29T19:46:00.000+03:002008-07-29T19:46:00.000+03:00"Remember Dink, if it really does come to yurts, 5..."Remember Dink, if it really does come to yurts, 5 billion people will die<BR/>We all have a vested interest in solving this problem."<BR/><BR/>I don't like the idea that other creatures (including humans) will suffer, but I do worry that humanity has basically backed itself into a corner. Too many people with too great an ability to affect the planet (due to technology) and not enough logic to extrapolate the consequences. The part of the equation that most urgently needs fixing is the psychology, but then you start crossing that controversial area into "free will". What can one do but formulate a belief on the most reasonable way to live under the circumstances presented, walk the talk, and hope others envy the results and start to adopt your beliefs and behaviors?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-75783819400925972862008-07-29T16:29:00.000+03:002008-07-29T16:29:00.000+03:00Changer le disque. This post has been on so long e...Changer le disque. This post has been on so long even les raconteurs can't remember what it's about.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-54134163425891183392008-07-29T05:08:00.000+03:002008-07-29T05:08:00.000+03:00Remember Dink, if it really does come to yurts, 5 ...Remember Dink, if it really does come to yurts, 5 billion people will die<BR/><BR/>We all have a vested interest in solving this problem.<BR/><BR/>@Hell, did you read the <A HREF="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/has-deleveraging-even-begun-not-for.html" REL="nofollow">naked capitalism link</A> Greenie left? <BR/><BR/>Do you agree?Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-62634250036628428102008-07-29T04:04:00.000+03:002008-07-29T04:04:00.000+03:00:-)You'll understand me yet, even if we never agre...:-)<BR/><BR/>You'll understand me yet, even if we never agree...<BR/> <BR/>By the way, I assume you realized my statement: "assumed to be noe of the closes people in the world to him" is loaded with typos.<BR/><BR/>It should read "assumed to be <B><I>one</I></B> of the <B><I>closest</I></B> people in the world to him"Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-30906831475535790632008-07-29T03:59:00.000+03:002008-07-29T03:59:00.000+03:00And if he could do that to his wife (assumed to be...And if he could do that to his wife (assumed to be noe of the closes people in the world to him), what is he capable of doing to taxpayers and investors?<BR/><BR/>I'd never thought of it that way, but it has merit.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-53365096661887161802008-07-28T20:53:00.000+03:002008-07-28T20:53:00.000+03:00I ordered a brochure from yurts.com a few days ago...I ordered a brochure from yurts.com a few days ago (<1/2 will undoubtedly flip out, but a buddy of mine is slowly buying into the idea so I must be getting more convincing).<BR/><BR/>I found a place in OR that teaches hydroponics (microfarmsustainable.org). I'll suggest a weekend trip to further enrage <1/2. Too much calm is bad for a marriage :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-25894116336737090872008-07-28T18:20:00.000+03:002008-07-28T18:20:00.000+03:00Thanks Greenie.Maybe Dink is right, we'll all be ...Thanks Greenie.<BR/><BR/>Maybe Dink is right, we'll all be living in yerts soon. <BR/><BR/>If you come across a good review of goatherding, let me know<BR/><BR/>:-)Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-33566054468591352442008-07-28T16:19:00.000+03:002008-07-28T16:19:00.000+03:00Thai,Please take a look at this thread from nakedc...Thai,<BR/><BR/>Please take a look at this thread from nakedcapitalism.<BR/><BR/>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/has-deleveraging-even-begun-not-for.html<BR/><BR/>It gives numbers for many questions that you were asking the other day regarding debt/GDP ratio, etc.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-70673757893703227322008-07-28T05:58:00.000+03:002008-07-28T05:58:00.000+03:00Here is a show coming to a Cinemark theatre near y...Here is a show coming to a Cinemark theatre near you August 21, 2008:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.fathomevents.com/details.aspx?eventid=728" REL="nofollow">I.O.U.S.A.: LIVE with Warren Buffett, Pete Peterson & Dave Walker</A><BR/><BR/>I figured that the readers of this blog would be interested in this event.OkieLawyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17071917464425173379noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-48545864231122061002008-07-27T17:56:00.000+03:002008-07-27T17:56:00.000+03:00yoyomo- thanks.Did you see this article by Satyaji...yoyomo- thanks.<BR/><BR/>Did you see <A HREF="http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M58e85ff0865.0.html" REL="nofollow">this article by Satyajit Das</A> that Yves Smith referenced on Naked Capitalsim this other day?<BR/><BR/>By now I assume you realize I see many of society's ills as the complex consequences of integrity violations by individuals on all levels of society's socioeconomic ladder. With that in mind, I thought you might get a kick out of this story: <BR/><BR/>I was at a suprise 40th birthday party for a friend last night when I was introduced to a women who promptly launched into a tirade of "what dogs men are".<BR/><BR/>Apparantly she is a very high level manager at Freddie Mac (still is) and a few years ago, while pregnant with her third child, her now ex-husband, who is a VERY high level manager at Freddie Mac (still there... in fact he is amongst the very highest people in the entire company), had an affair with another employee at Freddie Mac.<BR/><BR/>Apparantly the pregnant woman's entire division knew about the affair (her husband and the other woman were oddly very open while about there affair while she was on maternity leave). <BR/><BR/>You can guess how the story ended... a few months after she returned from maternity leave, the woman learned of the affair. And as she learned more details and marriage counciling failed (apparantly there had been other episodes at work prior to the most recent, which again, everyone but her knew) they divorced.<BR/><BR/>I remember when conservatives were so mad at Clinton over his affairs, and at the time I kept thinking "what is the big deal, this has nothing to do with how he runs the country". <BR/><BR/>Then a friend one day said "if he will cheat on the person closest to him in the whole world, what would he do to you and me?"<BR/><BR/>It was a marker for him as to how trustworthy Clinton is. Obvioulsy if he did not trust him, he did not want him as our leader.<BR/><BR/>While I still do not totally agree with my friend's analysis of Bill and Hillary, this is mostly because it does not seem to bother Hillary nearly as much as it does others. The Clinton marriege seems to have come to some kind of arrangement around his affairs such that it does not seem to be the same kind of integrity violation to Hillary that it might represent in another (say my friend's) marriage.<BR/><BR/>Yet clearly this was not the case with the woman I met last night. Her ex-husband's lack of integrity on this issue was clearly violating something very important to her. And to the extent he knew this, he is untrustworthy in both her eyes, and mine. <BR/><BR/>And if he could do that to his wife (assumed to be noe of the closes people in the world to him), what is he capable of doing to taxpayers and investors?Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-77033369442042482132008-07-27T17:35:00.000+03:002008-07-27T17:35:00.000+03:00Dink wrote:"You know whats sick about this 300 bil...Dink wrote:<BR/><BR/>"You know whats sick about this 300 billion bailout? Appraisals and income verification for the FHA refinances. The pressure on the appraisers to lie is going to be higher than ever. And these borrowers all lied about their income to qualify. If you verify their income to refi you're going to have to decline them. So they'll change the policy to allow stated income which got the industry into the mess its currently in. And don't get me started on home equity liens. There is no logical way to make this work. So either we'll get illogical or it won't work."<BR/><BR/>I think there are some provisions in the massive bill that address some of your concerns. Having said that, I concur with you and others who take a dim view of the "bailout" as a whole.<BR/><BR/>No news on the secession front. I don't expect any of that to manifest for quite some time though.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-53152459792318384602008-07-27T09:44:00.000+03:002008-07-27T09:44:00.000+03:00Thai,You were wondering about the possible size of...Thai,<BR/>You were wondering about the possible size of a bail-out of Phony & Fraudy. The bill in congress also includes in it an $800B increase in the debt ceiling, that should give you an idea of the minimum damage expected. Keep in mind that FHLB also has about $1T in loans to struggling banks: <BR/>#1) Citibank-$96B<BR/>#2) I forget, maybe WaMu<BR/>#3) CountryFried-$54Byoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-53426984745673904252008-07-27T06:03:00.000+03:002008-07-27T06:03:00.000+03:00Wkwillis-"outlawed because of tax evasion"Ah. But ...Wkwillis-<BR/><BR/>"outlawed because of tax evasion"<BR/><BR/>Ah. But if we're being subversive enough to disobey the Fed Reserve we may as well take down the IRS too. Edwardo, any updates on states leaving the union? We here in WA/OR could just join Canada...<BR/><BR/>You know whats sick about this 300 billion bailout? Appraisals and income verification for the FHA refinances. The pressure on the appraisers to lie is going to be higher than ever. And these borrowers all lied about their income to qualify. If you verify their income to refi you're going to have to decline them. So they'll change the policy to allow stated income which got the industry into the mess its currently in. And don't get me started on home equity liens. There is no logical way to make this work. So either we'll get illogical or it won't work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-59457531068691483642008-07-27T04:11:00.000+03:002008-07-27T04:11:00.000+03:00Ron Paul:"There are reasons to believe this coming...Ron Paul:<BR/><BR/>"There are reasons to believe this coming crisis is different and bigger than the world has ever experienced...The financial crisis, still in its early stages, is apparent to everyone: gasoline prices over $4 a gallon; skyrocketing education and medical-care costs; the collapse of the housing bubble; the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble; stock markets plunging; unemployment rising;, massive underemployment; excessive government debt; and unmanageable personal debt. Little doubt exists as to whether we’ll get stagflation. The question that will soon be asked is: When will the stagflation become an inflationary depression?"yoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-58006623026765433052008-07-27T04:03:00.000+03:002008-07-27T04:03:00.000+03:00Thanks for the kind words, Thai. Better that we n...Thanks for the kind words, Thai. Better that we not agree on some number of topics so as to keep the conversation interesting. <BR/><BR/>Anon wrote:<BR/><BR/>"As a student of history, I think it a bit harsh to criticize anyone as "bonkers" when they point to monetary policy and economic system management as a potential downfall for a nation-state. "<BR/><BR/>It could be a bit harsh to employ the term "bonkers," but, for the most part, I've not formed my less than charitable view of KD on the basis of his "monetary" critique, which, as I commented previously, has its merits. What I do find grating is Mr. Denninger's reverence towards what seems to me an altogether too quaint and benign view of capitalism. And that blind spot in conjunction with what I see as his tendency towards self congratulation and grandiosity- I appreciate your point about the usefulness of hyperbole- is what informs my opinion.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-30808107608135600572008-07-27T03:19:00.000+03:002008-07-27T03:19:00.000+03:00Great quote from Mike Whitney:Paulson is discoveri...Great quote from Mike Whitney:<BR/><BR/>Paulson is discovering that deceiving investors is not as easy as duping the public about fictional WMD or Niger uranium. Sometimes even the dullest person can grasp the most complex matters when it comes to his own money.yoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.com