Monday, January 8, 2007

Baby Boomer Debtors
Between 1946 and 1964 there were 75 million people born in the US. This "bulge" is clearly seen in the chart below.

Economic growth is ultimately based on a rising population and the boomer demographic nicely fits in with recent US economic history. For example, right around 1980 the first boomers reached age 35, widely seen as the onset of a person's high productivity - high consumption period (35-60). If we knew nothing else about causes and effects shaping the US economy but what we saw in the chart, we would easily predict that 1980 onwards could be a period of rising demand for all kinds of goods and services.

And here is another "easy" prediction: as the first waves of boomers approach retirement age this process will reverse. People preparing to retire cut down consumption, save more, alter investment strategies and in general act as a "brake" on growth. At the same time, they become heavy users of health services: a person consumes 90% of his lifetime's total medical care after the age of 60. Given that the US has a "social" medical system for retirees (Medicare), the boomer demographic has profound consequences for its future viability. Indeed, the US Treasury now calculates the present value of unfunded Medicare liabilities at $29 trillion, up from just $13 trillion in 2002.

The first boomers are already a year away from the statutory age for early retirement (62) and with every year that goes by the number of people retiring will rise sharply, reaching a peak around the year 2020. Given the current vastly swollen debt load of American households it is highly unlikely that this process will be smooth and painless - or last just a few years.

The Great Bull Market (in everything) commenced right on time in 1980 and has lasted for an unprecedented - but almost predictable - quarter century. Do not be surprised if the Great Bear Market (in everything) starts during the first decade of the 21st century.

Population is destiny.

4 comments:

  1. When a generation retires, it can affect the entire economy.

    When the Baby Boomer generation retires, it will bankrupt the economy.

    What happened when the "Depression Children" generation retired in the 1990s?

    The stock market bubble happened.

    John J. Xenakis
    GenerationalDynamics.com

    ReplyDelete
  2. There seems to be a perfect storm shaping up here. Resource depletion, global climate change, tremendous financial imbalances, generational discontinuities, retreat from democratic principles, religious wars. This feels like the beginning of a whole lot of history...

    "May you live in interesting times" Chinese curse.

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