Friday, September 7, 2007

Stealthy Bubbles

A major investment bank issued a research report yesterday encouraging its clients to immediately purchase stocks, because there won't be another opportunity to buy them as cheap as right now, as they said. Market timing opinions are a dime a dozen (my own are even cheaper), so no great news there. What is interesting, however, is that one of their reasons for recommending shares is that they have not observed any telltale signs of euphoria, mania or bubbles in such markets. Ergo, contrarian investing dictates buying.

I have a couple of comments...

Firstly, not all bull markets end with manic buying. Sometimes they just roll over quietly and head lower in a slow, grinding process. In fact, clearly observable and spectacular bubbles a la dotcom are the exception, but it could be that the writer of the report is not old enough to have experienced other market modes.

Secondly, the record-breaking emergence of hedge and private equity funds in conjunction with structured/derivative finance has meant that bubbles are perhaps much better hidden than in the past. Such professional speculators do not rush headlong into markets and can use more sophisticated techniques than direct purchases of shares. For example, they may sell CDSs (credit default swaps) to create equity risk exposure, instead of buying shares directly. This has the expected effect of boosting share prices, but in a less volatile fashion. There is very strong evidence of this occurring, as CDS notional amounts literally rocketed from $8.5 trillion at the end of 2004 to $34.4 trillion at the end of 2006 (Data from ISDA). I believe this is at least part of the reason why equities kept creeping higher and higher in a reverse drip-dry process, with no correction at all - until recently.

There is another crucial implication to the emergence of CDS. To arrive at a proper price for shares, we must now include CDS to the equation. Remember, the existence of CDS means that we have stripped credit risk out and we are trading it separately. For market exposure purposes, a share's price is not just what is shown on NYSE or NASDAQ. We must add back - somehow - that part of the "price" that is now trading separately as CDS. I do not know what the size of this upward adjustment should be, but the enormous amount and super-aggressive pricing (until recently) of CDSs tells us it has to be very considerable. (This will make a great PhD thesis, by the way).

This means that conventional measurements of equity market valuations are now obsolete, at least in markets that use heavily such "innovative finance" enhancements. I think of it this way: Stocks are now made up of two "parts" - part A trades on the regular stock exchange and part B trades OTC in the CDS market. To get a proper valuation we must add A and B together; just looking at part A is misleading.

I believe there are stealthy equity bubbles out there and they are already popping, as can be observed by widening CDX and iTraxx spreads.

The more I think of this subject, the more I like it. So I will attempt to come up with an "adjusted" S&P 500, or some such broad valuation index, taking into account CDS factors. This will take some research and time - if anyone has any suggestions please use the comments section. Proper credit will be given where due, of course.

18 comments:

  1. You are probably correct somewhere. to make it simple : as we had a credit bubble the consequences of this bubble must be already included in stock prices. furthermore if we are heading towards a deleveraging it will impact stock prices as well. Deleveraging means de facto less growth. So in this scenario stock prices are too expensive today but without having bubble prices.
    miju

    ReplyDelete
  2. Much-cited argument for the bull-case is that balance sheets are relatively healthy, less leverage, companies are flush with cash etc. But what if the deleveraging of corporate balance sheets is being offset by increased leverage by investors (higer margin debt, hedge funds), because the companies they invest in are perceived as less risky. Then aggregate marketrisk ("company risk" + "investors risk") as a whole may not be as low as is often argued. The question is how "the financial market" (the investors) and "the real economy" (the companies) feed off on eachother. But I guess this line of reasoning is somehow complimentary to yours on CDS and equity valuation (very interesting).

    ReplyDelete
  3. one way to look at this interesting debate (does a credit bubble means there is a stock market bubble behind) is to look at valuations of stock market before every property burst. My feeling tells me that stock market drop even if valuations are normal (sounds logical as the economic consequences of a property burst always translate in corporate earnings problems). today the valuation abnormality in the stock market, is by definition in the financials; as they represent about 30 % of the market...
    regards

    ReplyDelete
  4. I recently posted a lengthy article on how to evaluate the stock market, using three different methods, all of which come out to a little more or a little less than Dow 5000.

    ** How to compute the 'real value' of the stock market.

    The article also contains some speculations on the timing of a stock market crash, based on the dramatic change, since July 19, of investor sentiment from "risk-seeking" or "risk-ignoring" behavior to "risk-aversive" behavior. This change in behavior is precisely what preceded major financial crises throughout history.

    Sincerely,

    John

    John J. Xenakis
    E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
    Web site: http://GenerationalDynamics.com

    ReplyDelete
  5. How come the seller of the CDS buys the equity to hedge? I thought CDS were only related to bonds?

    ReplyDelete
  6. to John :
    are u a survivalist ? :-)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Hellasious,

    I am unable to contribute. But clearly the link-up between money market and asset markets is la question du jour.

    Concerning real estate the link is plain and simple and requires a grasp of the macro-economics behind (the amount fed by the credit system).

    When it comes the stock market the process is definitely more complex.

    The cibernetics requires clarification.

    I read carefully every bit of blogging information on the subject.

    I admit I was unable to pick up the strength of the link between CDS and stock values.

    Possibly the explanation has to get much more in details.

    But I admit not to be neither a financier by trade or training.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Re:CDS/equity connection

    CDS is a measurement of default risk, which is clearly a component of equity pricing. Think of it in this extreme way: which company is more valuable?

    A company teetering on the verge of bankruptcy (high risk) or a financially robust co. with little debt and growing earnings (low risk).

    By selling CDS you assume the risk of making good on a company's debts, so you go long risk, which is the same as going long a stock, with the proper correlation factor, of course.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  9. so is the question "do we have more sellers or buyers of CDS" pertinent to judge the trend the risk takers ? is the growing size of CDS meaning that we have more and more sellers of risk ? or more and more buyers ? Can we put in perspective the size of the CDS and the stock available of stocks to answer to this question ?
    regards

    ReplyDelete
  10. For purposes of evalauting stock market risk and bubbles, there's a vast difference between two sides of the market. It's almost like having two different markets: big quality companies and smaller speculative companies.

    There is a bubble in smaller speculative companies and its been getting worse in recent weeks. The most accurate way to measure the value of stocks (especially growth stocks) is to discount their future earnings. The discount rate (weighted average cost of capital) increases with perceived risk and the company's cost to access credit markets. This cost has been soaring lately for small companies, so discounted future earnings value has fallen sharply. The Russell 2000 still trades at a TTM P/E of 37. It should be about 12.

    You can't even see the cost of capital for some very small, speculative companies due to the emergence of the private investment in public equities (PIPEs) market. But I think some micro cap companies are having to pay 20% or more for capital. The P/Es of those companies should be 6-8, even with high projected growth rates.

    ReplyDelete
  11. One measure might be something like "Net value of financial instruments outstanding"/EBITDA. Of course, it's that 'net' part that's tricky.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hellasious:

    "but it could be that the writer of the report is not old enough to have experienced other market modes."

    Send this young person to re-hab.

    "part A trades on the regular stock exchange and part B trades OTC in the CDS market."

    Agreed, 100%. However excluding B, stocks are still priced as comps with Miami Condos. Earnings are "yesterday's" news.

    I changed my outlook on the S&P from a "Strong Buy" to "Goodbye". ;-)

    Have a Great weekend.

    Econolicious

    ReplyDelete
  13. There are equal parts buyers and sellers, such is the definition of a swap.

    It's the amount that is important. A company at risk of default commands high CDS prices. Also these companies seem to be the ones most speculated upon (supposition). For example GM has some absurd amount of CDS's written - I seem to recall around 200 billion notional?

    So would the argument be that a company with high CDS price/volume puts a floor under the stock price, because rather than sell the stock people protect themselves with swaps? Not an easy problem - good luck Hellasious ;)

    ReplyDelete
  14. Interesting piece on the stock price valuation. While there a possibility that prices might seem inflated based on your estimates, could it be possible that the value of money has devalued significantly such that the current valuation is actually "fair"? People may simply be trading worthless money for tangible and productive stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  15. ** To Miju:

    > are u a survivalist ? :-)

    No I'm not. I'm not even sure that I'm a survivor.

    ** To Jeremy:

    > Interesting piece on the
    > stock price valuation.
    > While there a possibility
    > that prices might seem
    > inflated based on your
    > estimates, could it be
    > possible that the value
    > of money has devalued
    > significantly such that
    > the current valuation is
    > actually "fair"? People
    > may simply be trading
    > worthless money for
    > tangible and productive
    > stocks.

    All three methods account for inflation. Price/earnings ratios are inflation-independent. All the other methods are in year 2000 constant dollars.

    Sincerely,

    John

    John J. Xenakis
    E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
    Web site: http://GenerationalDynamics.com

    ReplyDelete
  16. For what it's worth, another argument I've seen the bulls use lately is that the put/call ratio is too "high" for a top...however, I remember that this indicator was dead wrong as we plummetted into the 2002 lows...it was very high as the market continued lower and low. Indicators work until they don't.

    ReplyDelete
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