tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post2681978748773660278..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: China Kettle, Dryer and Scale, Inc.Hellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-13263819763671423722008-11-13T10:17:00.000+02:002008-11-13T10:17:00.000+02:00louis vuitton replicahandbag wholesalereplica bagh...<A HREF="http://www.toptopbag.com" REL="nofollow">louis vuitton replica</A><A HREF="http://www.toptopbag.com" REL="nofollow">handbag wholesale</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.toptopbag.com" REL="nofollow">replica bag</A><A HREF="http://www.toptopbag.com" REL="nofollow">handbag replica</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-74601548916544725922008-09-24T09:39:00.000+03:002008-09-24T09:39:00.000+03:00stair liftsstairliftsbath liftsbathliftswheelchair...<A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-stair-lifts-c-53.html" REL="nofollow">stair lifts</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-stair-lifts-c-53.html" REL="nofollow">stairlifts</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-bath-lifts-c-87.html" REL="nofollow">bath lifts</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-bath-lifts-c-87.html" REL="nofollow">bathlifts</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-ramps-c-73.html" REL="nofollow">wheelchair ramps</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-ramps-c-73.html" REL="nofollow">access ramps</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-ramps-c-73.html" REL="nofollow">disabled ramps</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-ramps-c-73.html" REL="nofollow">wheelchair ramp</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-mobility-scooters-c-54.html" REL="nofollow">mobility scooters</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.mobilitysmart.cc/Mobility-Smart-Limited-wheelchairs-c-42.html" REL="nofollow">wheelchairs</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.fringesrugs.co.uk/" REL="nofollow">rug</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.zglwfbw.com/" REL="nofollow">rugs</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.deebuchanan.com" REL="nofollow">Counselling Aberdeen</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.deebuchanan.com" REL="nofollow">Hypnotherapy Aberdeen</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.deebuchanan.com" REL="nofollow">Hypnosis Aberdeen</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.hanslaser.net/" REL="nofollow">Laser marker</A>,Laser Marking Machine,Laser Engraver<BR/><A HREF="http://www.buyitcert.com/" REL="nofollow">MCSE</A><A HREF="http://www.gzlink.com/" REL="nofollow">flexible coupling</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45292590323447392182007-10-31T21:08:00.000+02:002007-10-31T21:08:00.000+02:00Please write anything else!Please write anything else!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-19771505551256676972007-10-31T20:40:00.000+02:002007-10-31T20:40:00.000+02:00QOv1v2 Nice Article.QOv1v2 Nice Article.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-56615525118925936222007-10-30T15:27:00.000+02:002007-10-30T15:27:00.000+02:00Please write anything else!Please write anything else!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-48469377840893176942007-10-30T11:36:00.000+02:002007-10-30T11:36:00.000+02:00actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going t...actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-2771460851003024532007-10-27T23:10:00.000+03:002007-10-27T23:10:00.000+03:00actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going t...actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-3481779137461809062007-10-27T22:21:00.000+03:002007-10-27T22:21:00.000+03:00Nice Article.Nice Article.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-14844348800765559692007-10-26T22:45:00.000+03:002007-10-26T22:45:00.000+03:00Nice Article.Nice Article.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-11202079210570409302007-10-26T22:20:00.000+03:002007-10-26T22:20:00.000+03:00Please write anything else!Please write anything else!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-45114051051168532842007-10-26T21:08:00.000+03:002007-10-26T21:08:00.000+03:00fKl4qe Wonderful blog.fKl4qe Wonderful blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-77755572478917848402007-10-26T12:41:00.000+03:002007-10-26T12:41:00.000+03:00iP3nE1 Your blog is great. Articles is interesting...iP3nE1 Your blog is great. Articles is interesting!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-89313905126352344522007-10-08T23:05:00.000+03:002007-10-08T23:05:00.000+03:00deflation on free market, free trade products.Wher...<I>deflation on free market, free trade products.</I><BR/><BR/>Where does one find such things?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-88099267154769724202007-10-07T22:21:00.000+03:002007-10-07T22:21:00.000+03:00Those two articles cited by Anonymous in the previ...Those two articles cited by Anonymous in the previous comment were excellent. A must read.<BR/><BR/>BernardAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-78483604113774912962007-10-07T17:28:00.000+03:002007-10-07T17:28:00.000+03:00A couple of interesting articles:China won't save ...A couple of interesting articles:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=299171" REL="nofollow">China won't save the world</A><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.prospect.org//cs/articles;jsessionid=a0Rj3ZxcHswb4RuH2v?article=the_alarming_parallels_between_1929_and_2007" REL="nofollow">The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007</A><BR/><BR/>I think the Chinese leadership feels significant pressure to industrialize rapidly in order to ameliorate what is really still significant poverty there; this benefits them politically, of course. It would not be surprising if they did not have the whole transition to rampant capitalism thing down pat.<BR/><BR/>ehAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-55073344975490308862007-10-07T01:37:00.000+03:002007-10-07T01:37:00.000+03:00Malinvestment is not just a feature of western rea...Malinvestment is not just a feature of western real estate markets. Building factories to produce goods for which their is a finite market is also dumb.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-23393389073712624692007-10-06T17:10:00.000+03:002007-10-06T17:10:00.000+03:00http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=299...http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=299171<BR/><BR/>Was just posting (in French) on this very subject. The article has some nice figures. <BR/><BR/>INVESTMENT AT 45% OF GPD, CONSUMPTION AT 35%. THIS IS PLAIN INCREDIBLE!!!!<BR/><BR/>"demand for all the goods churned out by China will slacken just as thousands of new factories come online next year, collapsing profits inside China Inc. and exposing mountains of problem loans at state banks. The ultimate result will almost surely be a global slowdown. "This is the biggest credit crunch we've ever seen"<BR/><BR/>"Fixed- asset investment (construction of ports, factories, condos, etc.) now accounts for about 45 percent of China's GDP. Its trade surplus has grown from almost nothing in the late 1990s to 9 percent of GDP today. Meanwhile, private consumption has shrunk from half of total economic activity in the late 1990s to just 35 percent this year. "Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-49585221356422686902007-10-06T16:02:00.000+03:002007-10-06T16:02:00.000+03:00Anonymous said...I believe the correlation is -Inf...<I>Anonymous said...<BR/><BR/>I believe the correlation is -<BR/><BR/>Inflation on services (education & health care)..especially union and govt (which is also union) based services</I><BR/><BR/>Oh yeah, it's all the union's fault. It can't be supply and demand there (aging baby boomers for health care combined with a failure to increase the supply of medical professionals or student loan's hidden/delayed costs with a consumer with no bargaining power combined with a banking industry which has received favorable treatment from government regulators even though government loans would be cheaper).<BR/><BR/><I>and deflation on free market, free trade products.</I><BR/><BR/>Oh yeah, it can't be because of exploitation of cheap labor combined with a disempowered work force.<BR/><BR/><I>Commodities are increasing because of supply and demand.</I><BR/><BR/>This part, I think, is largely on the money. Although, having said that, a lot of commentators have been alleging that oil prices are out of whack with what the market should be at.<BR/><BR/>...<BR/><BR/><I>Funny, taxes are my biggest expense and also increasing faster than all of my other expenses, but no one mentions this.</I><BR/><BR/>Interesting bias you have there.<BR/><BR/>Funny, your taxes would be a lot higher if we actually paid for the government we had. The debt load of the federal government has been skyrocketing because of <I>tax cuts</I>. But you're probably not complaining about that. You say your taxes are going up, but I don't know how. Tax rates have been falling for the last 7 years (funded by debt).<BR/><BR/>Oh, by the way, the government is basically a large service-based industry. All those (many) services get lumped together into a single payment. At some level, they are all necessary to make this country what it is. You need to think about all those services you are paying for (in taxes) that you are utilizing. You have to pay for those services just like you would for any other service. <BR/><BR/>I think of it as a cost of doing business.OkieLawyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17071917464425173379noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-47085976417328819452007-10-06T15:28:00.000+03:002007-10-06T15:28:00.000+03:00The financial crowd that makes a living on BS now ...The financial crowd that makes a living on BS now propagates the notion that we don't need to worry as the US sinks under the weight of plummeting real estate values, because the "global economy" will steam ahead. <BR/><BR/>The propaganda word they have coined for this is "decoupling". <BR/><BR/>But forget about the fact that the Asian economies are export and investment driven---not consumption driven. Consumption is about 35% of GDP in China (compared to 70% in the USA).<BR/><BR/>And secondly, forget about the fact that their exports are driven by the US consumer. <BR/><BR/>And thirdly, forget about the fact that their investment is driven by massive printing of their local currency as their central banks accumulate giant stockpiles of US dollar reserves (which are causing their economies to overheat big-time as we speak).<BR/><BR/>This notion of "decoupling" has been part of what has propped up global stock markets and commodity markets lately (in addition to "the Fed will save us" mantra).<BR/><BR/>The US consumer is the driver of the global economy--pure and simple. A US consumer that has been propped up by a US credit securities creation machine (fuelled by recycled foreign capital).<BR/><BR/>As well, the plain fact of the matter (which be should be very obvious by now--but nonetheless ignored by many) is that the world financial markets and the world economy over time have become increasingly SYNCHRONIZED as a result of globalization of capital flows and advances in communications technology. <BR/><BR/>EVERYTHING moves up and down increasingly together. If you calculated the correlation co-efficient among the world's stock markets and the world's bond markets, I'm very confident it would be very high, and far higher than it used to be 10, 20, or 30 years ago. The same thing goes for the world's various economies---there is far higher synchronization in growth then their used to be and I am sure that a correlation co-efficient would demonstrate that in spades.<BR/><BR/>But nonetheless, the Wall Street propaganda machine would have me believe that there is going to be this big DIVERGENCE in growth patterns (between the US and the rest of the world), and that for this reason I should just go ahead and plow my money into stocks and commodities. <BR/><BR/>BernardAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-1253463882673960492007-10-06T07:33:00.000+03:002007-10-06T07:33:00.000+03:00sorry, last pp should read '...demand but on and o...sorry, last pp should read '...demand <I>but</I> on and off-exchange speculation..'Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-76245943515268715552007-10-06T07:27:00.000+03:002007-10-06T07:27:00.000+03:00Yes, there's been a soon-to-be-evident overaccumul...Yes, there's been a soon-to-be-evident overaccumulation of production capital in China,,,'to-be-evident' in the sense of declining utilization, still greater competition, price decline, rising tensions between the Chinese state and an increasing mass of unemployed, steep drop in an already low rate of production profit (often this latter generates a speculative bubble as capital, seeking to maintain its old rate, flows from production to finance; a bubble that breaks down as real economy decline encompasses more sectors and deepens), and, of course, increased concentration and centralization of previously independent firms. All of these interact as both causes and consequences.<BR/><BR/>Or, basically what some economists continue to label a crisis of overproduction which, since one of its semi-autonomous sides is the pre-crisis change in capital to labor ratios and rise in total mass of production capital, cannot be prevented through countercyclical policy actions which can, though, mitigate if the degree of overaccumulation is not extreme.<BR/><BR/>In short, Hellasious, you are correct but there's <I>usually</I> more to it than declining monetarily effective demand which - strictly speaking - can be called a realization crisis (crises based on the failure of capitalists to realize their expected profits. A realization crisis occurs when any significant number of capitalists are not able to sell their products at a price that reflects their value).<BR/><BR/><BR/>Price of crude oil has, since the earlier 1990s but expecially post-2002, been financialized, i.e. less dependent on real cost of production/supply/demand both on and off-exchange speculation in paper barrels.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-79869171828177856382007-10-06T06:32:00.000+03:002007-10-06T06:32:00.000+03:00Great video:The Paradox of Choice - Why More Is Le...Great video:<BR/><BR/>The Paradox of Choice - Why More Is Less<BR/> http://tinyurl.com/2yw2p3Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-27035538033445308222007-10-06T03:23:00.000+03:002007-10-06T03:23:00.000+03:00re: Chinese bubble in manufacturing. Let's keep i...re: Chinese bubble in manufacturing. Let's keep in mind that capital investment in China constitutes some ridiculous percentage of Chinese GDP. Over 40%.<BR/><BR/>My assumption is that capital investment is primarily of two types: real estate (which is local) and building factories (the output of which is local to some degree but at the critical [large] margin headed overseas).<BR/><BR/>Moreover, the flip side. All those Chinese consumers? Well if capital investment makes up 40% of Chinese GDP, where's all the consumption. Growing certainly but from a very small base. And with a theoretical upper limit capped by GDP/capita. This being very low in China's case (enormous population in the denominator [obviously]).<BR/><BR/>patpatflahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03146408328788278621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-67995946070624325952007-10-06T01:02:00.000+03:002007-10-06T01:02:00.000+03:00re: "...have inflation in things that we need need...re: "...have inflation in things that we need need (healthcare, education, commodities, etc.) and deflation in the things that we want (HDTVs and other electronics, clothes, etc.)."<BR/><BR/>I believe the correlation is - <BR/><BR/>Inflation on services (education & health care)..especially union and govt (which is also union) based services <BR/><BR/>and deflation on free market, free trade products.<BR/><BR/>Commodities are increasing because of supply and demand.<BR/><BR/>As long as there is lots of competition, prices will stay low...except for limited supply of raw materials that can't be mass produced.<BR/><BR/>Funny, taxes are my biggest expense and also increasing faster than all of my other expenses, but no one mentions this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-92132069990922963532007-10-05T22:38:00.000+03:002007-10-05T22:38:00.000+03:00,...but I would not be surprised to see $60 or per...<I>,...but I would not be surprised to see $60 or perhaps $40.</I><BR/><BR/>I'm not sure OPEC would let that happen in the face of rising demand (which I expect), and both countries you mention are members (admittedly the US occupation makes Iraq a question mark).<BR/><BR/>Moving on...I'm starting to think the proliferation of bearish blogs, which I've definitely noticed since the housing slowdown got serious, is another contrary indicator.<BR/><BR/>Or maybe it's just the markets trying to prove once again that they can remain irrational longer than bears can stay solvent.<BR/><BR/>ehAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com