tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post3328485016032380011..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: For My Next Trick, I Will Fall Into This Here Trap...Hellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-4577609472881619142007-10-31T21:04:00.000+02:002007-10-31T21:04:00.000+02:00Good job!Good job!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-65735558416561387452007-10-31T20:35:00.000+02:002007-10-31T20:35:00.000+02:00uqYB4Y Hello all!uqYB4Y Hello all!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-58627224817541892032007-10-30T15:22:00.000+02:002007-10-30T15:22:00.000+02:00Wonderful blog.Wonderful blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-59784815518391196452007-10-30T11:30:00.000+02:002007-10-30T11:30:00.000+02:00Please write anything else!Please write anything else!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-1507167208916841002007-10-30T08:18:00.000+02:002007-10-30T08:18:00.000+02:00Magnific!Magnific!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-17347145919605791582007-10-28T16:46:00.000+02:002007-10-28T16:46:00.000+02:00Wonderful blog.Wonderful blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-28208096971509492652007-10-27T23:06:00.000+03:002007-10-27T23:06:00.000+03:00Hello all!Hello all!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-68541784992127400112007-10-27T22:17:00.000+03:002007-10-27T22:17:00.000+03:00Please write anything else!Please write anything else!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-33315624058398285352007-10-26T22:17:00.000+03:002007-10-26T22:17:00.000+03:00Wonderful blog.Wonderful blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-14523964533114346432007-10-26T21:04:00.000+03:002007-10-26T21:04:00.000+03:00XNsSzV Please write anything else!XNsSzV Please write anything else!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-62859945098102270792007-10-26T11:50:00.000+03:002007-10-26T11:50:00.000+03:00hHDrQ4 Your blog is great. Articles is interesting...hHDrQ4 Your blog is great. Articles is interesting!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-82687414773056021032007-09-27T06:46:00.000+03:002007-09-27T06:46:00.000+03:00The leverage associated with the reduced bank res...The leverage associated with the reduced bank reserve requirement may be significantly greater than you have described. Beginning some time in the mid-90's, banks are allowed to partition each night, transparent to the account holder, demand deposits (checking accounts) by sweeping those funds into two accounts, one a savings account and one a checking account. This accounting is internal to the bank. The account holder never sees any of this. By this method, banks can effectively further reduce their overnight reserve requirement. Banks can adjust the partition as desired every night. To offset the possibility that the bank sweeps so much into the savings side that checking accounts cannot satisfy withdrawal demands, the bank can require checking account holders to give one week notice before making a withdrawal from the checking account. Read the fine print in the terms of your checking account.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-9482902829694786562007-09-26T09:58:00.000+03:002007-09-26T09:58:00.000+03:00Would it be a surprise to find that, from moreless...Would it be a surprise to find that, from moreless 1963 until 1983, the rate of profit (not earnings) for nonfinancial U.S. corporate sector was higher than that of the financial sector whereas from 1987-2000 the contrary?<BR/><BR/>If so, please see: Figure 9 in <I>THE REAL AND FINANCIAL COMPONENTS OF PROFITABILITY (USA 1948-2000)</I>, Gerard DUMENIL and Dominique LEVY, MODEM-CNRS and CEPREMAP-CNRS, 2005<BR/><BR/>IMO, the change in each of the two rates may help explain why investment has not moved towards such sectors as alternative energy but has tended towards more strictly financial activities.<BR/>Might also be part of an explanation for the transnationalizing of nominally U.S. production capital as it has sought to maximize profit rate through standard of living and labor arbitrage.<BR/><BR/>(For 'some' reason, neoclassic economics became overly fixated on the demand side and the micro, so misses what more hetrodox economists 'see' ...but that's a really long story)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-18683726155702005612007-09-26T05:00:00.000+03:002007-09-26T05:00:00.000+03:00A friend introduced me to your blog, and (not to b...A friend introduced me to your blog, and (not to brag or anything but my professional site really has high traffic) I included your headlines on my home page. That might have generated a few visitors. ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-4475741071455527242007-09-26T01:37:00.000+03:002007-09-26T01:37:00.000+03:00My local newspaper (St. Petersburg Times) ran a st...My local newspaper (St. Petersburg Times) ran a story today about oil production decline rates in Mexico. Within the article, not only were the heretofore unmentionable words "peak oil" used, but the author posited that we may be there. That's mainstream recognition of a problem previously confined to internet backwaters inhabited by foil hatters living in their mom's basement such as yours truly.<BR/><BR/>I would submit that the time to prepare for the coming calamity was ideally in 1976, when Jimmy Carter first suggested driving slower and turning down out thermostats. Having gipperized that opportunity, our next chance came in the 1998-2000 time frame, with WTIC @ around 12 bucks, and the dollar index @ 120. <BR/><BR/>Alas, it was not to be. Two oil men, a $70 per barrel bloating, and a 50% slide in Uncle Buck's stature later, here we go. Buckle up, it's gonna suck. Period.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-80279959724699917952007-09-25T23:29:00.000+03:002007-09-25T23:29:00.000+03:00A simpler way of saying it is that the US and Asia...A simpler way of saying it is that the US and Asia constitute a sub-optimal Nash equilibrium.<BR/><BR/>Eventually, the game will terminate but until then there is no "more rational" strategy for either party.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-38549430000568599252007-09-25T23:16:00.000+03:002007-09-25T23:16:00.000+03:00Asia hasn't robbed us of anything - we are robbing...<I>Asia hasn't robbed us of anything - we are robbing ourselves.</I><BR/><BR/>I agree, we've been shooting ourselves in the foot since the original Bretton Woods agreement.<BR/><BR/>But, the impact of Asian currency pegs has been to import US inflation. If the Federal Reserve was completely rational, they would have looked at inflation rates across the entire "dollar hegemony" and fixed rates accordingly. But, what they did was only look at US inflation data and kept interest rates too low.<BR/><BR/>That is what started the decade's long boom in US asset prices. It only took Americans a couple decades to switch from income based savings (passbook savings account) to asset based savings (401Ks, etc). It only took a couple more decades after that to switch from asset based savings to arbitrage (real-estate, CDOs, LBOs, etc). It's not uncommon today to hear financial planners encouraging households to increase debt levels as a way of maximizing wealth.<BR/><BR/>But, what would you suggest the Federal Reserve do? Holding interest rates at "natural" levels would have resulted in full employment in Asia at the expense of under-employment in the US.<BR/><BR/>What should the government have done? Reverse decades of trade agreements by imposing tariffs on Asian goods?<BR/><BR/>What should have US consumers have done? Save their nickles while the value of the assets they eventually wanted to buy grew at 2-3 times the rate of their pass book savings accounts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-34034630264823027002007-09-25T22:24:00.000+03:002007-09-25T22:24:00.000+03:00Hellasious, who said Greenspan and Bernanke is not...Hellasious, who said Greenspan and Bernanke is not very much responsible for the credit and housing mess??<BR/> <BR/>It is the duty of FED to regulate the banking industry, and they were on Bush's agenda to BLESS the housing bubble by ignoring Repeated warning about lax lending standards for years. <BR/><BR/>Didn't you notice right after Sept 11, Bush met very frequently with Greenspan, and every subsequent speech by Bush STRONGLY advocates Housing as American Dream, and Greenspan lowered the interest rate to way below inflation, and encourage ARM and also put a blind to lax lending standards. <BR/><BR/>Coincident??? I said many times before: Bush + Greenspan/Bernanke + Paulson = Financial Axis of EvilShawnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08155630920582744324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-11352956364906764582007-09-25T22:19:00.000+03:002007-09-25T22:19:00.000+03:00Great site Hellasious,I came across your site afte...Great site Hellasious,<BR/><BR/>I came across your site after a visit over at http://nychousingbubble.blogspot.com. I must say you have some of the most lucid and sublime insight on the web. And I don't say that lightly. I will definitely be linking back to you regularly.Kyle Yancyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05474333795070917625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-85693099709717168772007-09-25T21:21:00.000+03:002007-09-25T21:21:00.000+03:00re: high margin stuffI would agree with you if the...re: high margin stuff<BR/><BR/>I would agree with you if the high margin manufacturing produced goods other than mostly mass-consumerist gizmos whose demand may go "poof" in a persistent recession.<BR/><BR/>We are grossly mis-allocating our debt-financed spending. If we went into debt to build solar farms and wind farms or perhaps to massively finance a Manhattan R&D project, I would have no quibble. But then the Chinese would never lend us the money, would they? <BR/> <BR/>RegardsHellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-72168923585602914852007-09-25T20:44:00.000+03:002007-09-25T20:44:00.000+03:00And if Andrew Keen got it right in "The cult of th...And if Andrew Keen got it right in "The cult of the amateur", Web 2.0-technologies will gut Hollywood and music industry worldwide. <BR/><BR/>But of course, Facebook is worth more than all train manufacturers together, I am afraid.Manehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10464686842902277389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-66432929117394389192007-09-25T19:47:00.000+03:002007-09-25T19:47:00.000+03:00What the US creates is still pretty high-margin, h...What the US creates is still pretty high-margin, high-return on capital stuff. I really wouldn't mind being in a country that ran persistent trade deficits because it 1) imported low-margin stuff (computer hardware), 2) exported high-margin stuff (iPods, search, movies, music, software), and 3) financed the creation of 2) partly with overseas investment -- which we continue to get because the aforementioned activities get a higher rate of return than what's available in the home country.Byrne Hobarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03533607993880207323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-55127291067295256252007-09-25T19:34:00.000+03:002007-09-25T19:34:00.000+03:00Asia hasn't robbed us of anything - we are robbing...Asia hasn't robbed us of anything - we are robbing ourselves. Imagine what any Asian leader thought when he heard GWB say "go shopping more" in the middle of two wars.<BR/><BR/>Why am I thinking of Nero all of a sudden?Hellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-18031852337463462312007-09-25T17:43:00.000+03:002007-09-25T17:43:00.000+03:00great blog!'All I can tell you without spoiling th...great blog!<BR/><BR/><I>'All I can tell you without spoiling the fun is that you will walk away with a much greater appreciation for the challenges of a central banker's job. Lots and lots of humble pie for us backseat monetary policy amateurs.'</I><BR/><BR/>that is a funny comment...it is kind of like a serial killer stuck between no space in the back yard for dead bodies and having to eat all the victims. the fed creates their own problems!<BR/><BR/>henry ford had to spend massive amounts of money to create profits. the fed and the banks create a raw resource(money/credit) out of thin air. they also dont have to worry about pension benefits!<BR/><BR/>it is easy money (for the rich) while it last. what is sad is that poorer groups of people have tried to borrow their way to wealth not realizing the banks 'own' the presses (so the banks have no 'debt') and the gov will bail the banks out. the sheeple are just going to suffer.............Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-18842171777512966472007-09-25T17:37:00.000+03:002007-09-25T17:37:00.000+03:00Asia hasn't robbed us of jobs as much as it's robb...Asia hasn't robbed us of jobs as much as it's robbed us of income through currency manipulation.<BR/><BR/>A highly productive US worker is replaced by several workers in India or China. Total world productivity goes down and so does real income. <BR/><BR/>The resulting drag on consumption is offset by Asian financing of US debts. By keeping interest rates low, US consumers are encouraged to accelerate consumption through borrowing.<BR/><BR/>The end game is when incomes are no longer able to service those debts. In other words, every willing consumer is leveraged to the hilt.<BR/><BR/>The US isn't investing in geo-thermal or alternative energy sources at this point because we know that US households <I>simply can't afford it.</I> Or, to put it another way, switching to more environmentally friendly but higher cost energy sources is an additional drag on productivity and real wages.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com