tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post4532412016715280777..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: Hellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-35899771823751530202007-05-21T14:30:00.000+03:002007-05-21T14:30:00.000+03:00ok for all of your arguments except this one : in ...ok for all of your arguments except this one : in Q1 GDP growth was about 0.8 % and Q2 should be about the same. however profits for the companies listed in the SP 500 were up by 9 % in Q1. Why not expect another quarter of 5 - 9 % profit growth sufficient to support the SP 500 ?<BR/>regards<BR/>MijuAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-17737358891338660482007-05-20T00:10:00.000+03:002007-05-20T00:10:00.000+03:00It is pretty clear that the run up in housing val...It is pretty clear that the run up in housing values was an effect, or an outright method, of maintaining the economy after the tech bust. Now stocks and t bills are being pumped up by central banks to compensate for the house boom. Next boom after stocks bust? Commodities? The effect? Foreclosures, ruined pensions and inflation. The yuan floats - our imports get expensive again and China can afford to buy more commodities. It is looking very grim in the medium term for the middle class. Health care will be an obvious target for anger over rising costs, as will gas and diesel/heating oil. People will be stuck out in the suburbs driving their ford expedition on $5/gal gas, and prices at Walmat have gone up 20%, while wages have stagnated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-901477837088598422007-05-19T02:17:00.000+03:002007-05-19T02:17:00.000+03:00Reality always intrudes on fantastic realities, an...Reality always intrudes on fantastic realities, and the day of reckoning for all markets, the U.S. and China's will arrive in this most aptly named, year of the pig.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-84042472313312187222007-05-18T21:10:00.000+03:002007-05-18T21:10:00.000+03:00Again, thanks for your thoughtful input.Nastiness ...Again, thanks for your thoughtful input.<BR/><BR/>Nastiness within nastiness, even when well hidden, is so sad...sigh.<BR/><BR/>Be well and I hope you have a good weekend<BR/><BR/>TimTim Hodgenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15237942768894057727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-76671919990206537142007-05-18T19:29:00.000+03:002007-05-18T19:29:00.000+03:00One answer may be the burning individuals got in t...One answer may be the burning individuals got in the 1999-2000 mania made them turn to pros for managing money. <BR/><BR/>Another is more complicated and I think closer to the truth: as pension funds get increasingly underfunded vs. actuarial requirements they assume more risk, i.e. buy more stocks, thus increasing the portion of equities attributed to them.<BR/><BR/>I think corporations are part of this game, too. In order to boost their stock prices they get their pension funds to buy their stocks. Not always their own, as in the case of Enron, but crony capitalism is very strong across all corp. boards. You scratch my back, etc etc<BR/><BR/>One more reason: as you saw in the post that broke down stock ownership across wealth classes, most stock is owned by the very top 5-10%. They are the wealthy investors that provide the money for hedge and private equity funds. This is a form of pooled "crony investing".<BR/><BR/>RegardsHellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-70553920450955887912007-05-18T19:14:00.000+03:002007-05-18T19:14:00.000+03:00H - Thank you so much for your answer to my questi...H - <BR/><BR/>Thank you so much for your answer to my question from yesterday. I admire your acumen, diligence and your ability to see through all the noise and to teach well.<BR/><BR/>You have helped with the first part of my question about what the trend line has been for the individual investors.<BR/><BR/>But the second part of the question is still there. Namely, what are your thoughts on why the pack of individual investors has given their money to the big boys. <BR/><BR/>Is it an awareness that that's where the best returns are? Or that they recognize that it may all be a rigged game ultimately and because of that they can't effectively compete?<BR/><BR/>If so, will they be the proverbial canaries in the mine...when they withdraw their monies to much more conservative funds it will be a powerful message. That's providing they are monitoring their funds, etc.<BR/><BR/>TimTim Hodgenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15237942768894057727noreply@blogger.com