tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post4569484518686969179..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: Evergrande As Lehman? No, But…Hellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-70678237792365911772021-09-24T19:17:30.082+03:002021-09-24T19:17:30.082+03:00hmmm.... I feel like it is the other way round... ...hmmm.... I feel like it is the other way round... they think it is going down and are trying to pretend they are in control...a kind of chickenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17973151064533654331noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-59737691341417405012021-09-24T13:47:02.858+03:002021-09-24T13:47:02.858+03:00"...an entity will only collapse when it has ..."...an entity will only collapse when it has become utterly impossible to fake the books...."<br /><br />or perhaps when the Chinese leadership decides on a major course change in global economics and geopolitics. I thinks this is happening right now.Hellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-67346671685678910432021-09-24T12:43:13.829+03:002021-09-24T12:43:13.829+03:00So far, it looks like foreign lenders to Evergrand...So far, it looks like foreign lenders to Evergrande are being left to hang. The dollar bond interest payment date (yesterday) passed without even a word from Evergrande's management. I cannot imagine that they did this without consultation with China's political leadership.<br /><br />In re, China repatriating US/Western investments: I have noticed that China has been a net seller of US Treasury bonds in recent months. Nothing big, but it's a departure from being a net buyer for years. And that is perhaps more meaningful when we consider the record amount of Treasuries issued in the last 18 months.Hellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-26781227348726643922021-09-24T09:45:27.668+03:002021-09-24T09:45:27.668+03:00Like Hellasious, I have also been curious as to wh...Like Hellasious, I have also been curious as to whether foreign investors will be bailed out or left hanging. I'm also curious to what extent Chinese firms and individuals will be repatriating foreign holdings and assets - whether to shore up teetering balance sheets, in resonse to domestic political pressure, etc. In years past, the US and Western Europe were behind many hot money flows in and out in lesser developed markets and countries. Now, with China's massive wealth (and debt), the US and others may find themselves impacted by outflows if serious repatriation does occur.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-16066913263317348502021-09-24T07:11:45.374+03:002021-09-24T07:11:45.374+03:00my gut feeling is that the evergrande situation is...my gut feeling is that the evergrande situation is far, far, far worse than what is reported.... <br /><br />The thing is that there is no possibility of panic in China and there is a strong tradition of faking the books. Thus, an entity will only collapse when it has become utterly impossible to fake the books.... which is a scary thought.....a kind of chickenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17973151064533654331noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-10358996520504635982021-09-23T23:06:34.246+03:002021-09-23T23:06:34.246+03:00Maybe no real mega-crash, but just a series of mul...Maybe no real mega-crash, but just a series of multiple mini-crashes, in order to shake-out leveraged daytraders, which almost immediately rally back... camabronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10024146459457965038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-39577870734263305912021-09-23T20:20:29.237+03:002021-09-23T20:20:29.237+03:00Well, so much for that. It's off to the races ...Well, so much for that. It's off to the races again! Huge rallies everywhere. It's systemic now, it seems, bull markets are. camabronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10024146459457965038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-72859192140760050272021-09-23T15:14:32.821+03:002021-09-23T15:14:32.821+03:00I’m keeping a close eye on Evergreen for another r...I’m keeping a close eye on Evergreen for another reason: <br /><br />if the company decides to pay and/or work out its domestic debt quickly, but lets foreign lenders “hang”, then it sends a very very powerful message that China’s leaders are choosing to clash with the ferengi. Obviously, this is a very political and strategic decision, the country’s leadership is going to be involved.<br /><br />Hellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-62728244876297404012021-09-23T14:45:12.691+03:002021-09-23T14:45:12.691+03:00love your perspective. =)love your perspective. =)a kind of chickenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17973151064533654331noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-51066497827907538552021-09-23T14:27:21.773+03:002021-09-23T14:27:21.773+03:00It'll be interesting to see what this does to ...It'll be interesting to see what this does to Chinese companies' access to offshore bond markets in the future.camabronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10024146459457965038noreply@blogger.com