tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post5130070340386597203..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: Crude FactsHellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-51958672508725726162008-04-17T16:33:00.000+03:002008-04-17T16:33:00.000+03:00i am not convinced that Exxon's reduction in explo...i am not convinced that Exxon's reduction in exploration success is not more a product of the fact that they don't actually own much oil bearing land. almost 90% of oil and gas land assets are now held by the state-owned oil companies, which are monopolies, and thus operate more as rentiers capitalists as opposed to industrial capitalists, and therefore with less incentive to increase their exploration investment. combine that with the sanctions against iran and the instability in iraq, and i think that also helps to explain the lower exploration success for the industry as a whole.<BR/>brazil's recent declarations about the 30bbl to 80bbl size of their sugar loaf finds demonstrate that it is smaller, state-owned oil companies that are displaying enthusiasm for new discoveries, as is also the case in the countries in Africa who are new to the oil game.<BR/><BR/>finally, i think we have to assume that oil execs are still deeply scarred by their experiences from the oil boom and sharp bust scenario triggered by Volcker's tight money constricting US demand in the early 80's.<BR/>clearly there is already a contraction in US demand in the pipeline so to speak when the recession deepens, so i would expect that further exploration is being muted with anticipation of a coming global depressionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-75514803123057471852008-04-16T20:59:00.000+03:002008-04-16T20:59:00.000+03:00re: oil equivalentsExxon actually breaks out oil a...re: oil equivalents<BR/><BR/>Exxon actually breaks out oil and gas separately, as well as providing an oil equivalent figure. I thought it fairer to show their entire upstream production.Hellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-82190970823866710552008-04-16T20:08:00.000+03:002008-04-16T20:08:00.000+03:00Note that charts show 'oil equivalent' barrels. Th...Note that charts show 'oil equivalent' barrels. This term allows natural gas to be included along with oil on an energy equivalent basis, i.e. 6000 cu ft natural gas = 1 barrel oil. The problem is that a) oil is more valuable, particularly compared with far away natural gas that is much more difficult to transport, and b) drillers have long focused on relatively shallow oil and ignored less valuable deeper natural gas, such that we produced much of the oil early. Exxon is developing a very large gas field in Qatar, and carefully booking some of this gas as reserves each year to balance out their otherwise declining oil reserves elsewhere. So while oil 'equivalent' production and reserves look flat, they disguise falling oil production and reserves. <BR/><BR/>Furthermore, we are seeing falling production from nearly all the major producers, including Saudi, Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, US, China, etc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-38344952380123720952008-04-16T16:15:00.000+03:002008-04-16T16:15:00.000+03:00H_IOUs, I skimmed your Exxon blog yesterday, but i...H_IOUs, I skimmed your Exxon blog yesterday, but it was one of the rare days I didn't peek at the comments. It's disappointing to hear that the incivility common to too many blog commenters has drifted to yours. I hope your new standards take hold; I've been recommending your blog to colleagues who don't have a strong background in markets & economics, and are seeking good insights. They rightfully sense the major media & 'talking heads' are doing too much 'happy talk' and lies-of-omissions, but they don’t have the background to fill in the gaps themselves.<BR/>Keep up the good work.Avl Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12298355297869341807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-38790418071458384332008-04-16T07:30:00.000+03:002008-04-16T07:30:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-8278009158633408622008-04-16T07:04:00.000+03:002008-04-16T07:04:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-1789224288567155722008-04-16T06:17:00.000+03:002008-04-16T06:17:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-39900159086188835562008-04-16T05:42:00.000+03:002008-04-16T05:42:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-32248126986263742812008-04-16T05:00:00.000+03:002008-04-16T05:00:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-6455288096384203492008-04-16T04:33:00.000+03:002008-04-16T04:33:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-25329483781378419982008-04-16T03:33:00.000+03:002008-04-16T03:33:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-74153082978796500652008-04-16T02:56:00.000+03:002008-04-16T02:56:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-28189305543944457042008-04-16T02:41:00.000+03:002008-04-16T02:41:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-28483841054456495352008-04-16T02:20:00.000+03:002008-04-16T02:20:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Terihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13382050215676302342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-61898650255306477852008-04-16T01:20:00.000+03:002008-04-16T01:20:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-41574238011143060082008-04-16T01:16:00.000+03:002008-04-16T01:16:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-17013195020189678132008-04-16T01:13:00.000+03:002008-04-16T01:13:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-83872428976846981932008-04-16T01:11:00.000+03:002008-04-16T01:11:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-52851247068252335272008-04-15T22:44:00.000+03:002008-04-15T22:44:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-71401051391102628082008-04-15T22:40:00.000+03:002008-04-15T22:40:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-17150556411890747662008-04-15T22:37:00.000+03:002008-04-15T22:37:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-59520628228938009522008-04-15T21:17:00.000+03:002008-04-15T21:17:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-20529956936214386552008-04-15T21:12:00.000+03:002008-04-15T21:12:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-10168825445215202202008-04-15T20:49:00.000+03:002008-04-15T20:49:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-6990757580004684182008-04-15T19:58:00.000+03:002008-04-15T19:58:00.000+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com