tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post7944112180506529353..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: Insolvency Vs. IlliquidityHellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger57125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-51641168145446346192009-12-06T21:12:11.788+02:002009-12-06T21:12:11.788+02:00Another sunny day here in Dubai.
Since I posted a...Another sunny day here in Dubai.<br /><br />Since I posted a few weeks ago we've been in the news a lot. My view is that it was the classic Goldman Sachs "dump and pump" which we often observe around long holiday weekends when US markets are closed. This time it was Thanksgiving in US and Eid/National Day in UAE. They panic foreign markets into crashing while US and UAE are closed, then there is some sort of calming formula spoken just before markets open. <br /><br />Voila! The US outperforms again! And UAE is less damaged than most would have thought. Meanwhile the prop desk at Goldman has just earned the 4th quarter portion of their record bonus.<br /><br />Let's face it: Abu Dhabi made more money off the appreciation of the US dollar side of its vast portfolio with the brief "flight to quality" dollar bump than it will cost to bail out Nakheel ten times over.<br /><br />You all were played. Again.<br /><br />For myself, this mini-panic is causing another downward shift in rents. I'm going to move closer to the beach and buy a kite board.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-59256639177018413792009-12-05T11:41:45.878+02:002009-12-05T11:41:45.878+02:00The shame of this is after we all get back on trac...The shame of this is after we all get back on track again it will repeat in the future human nature is habitual.leehttp://www.mortgagebestrate.co.uk/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-36982958905387126182009-12-04T04:46:32.385+02:002009-12-04T04:46:32.385+02:00Greenie, touche!
Some superstitions seem to be a ...Greenie, touche!<br /><br />Some superstitions seem to be a lot harder to let go of than others. ;-)<br /><br />Be wellThaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-38185222732383051172009-12-03T17:33:16.471+02:002009-12-03T17:33:16.471+02:00Thai, another example would be if you conclude tha...Thai, another example would be if you conclude that government does not print money.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-64471833494046104462009-12-03T17:31:09.716+02:002009-12-03T17:31:09.716+02:00Thai, I agree with you. Even the most objective sc...Thai, I agree with you. Even the most objective scientist is emotional, because a selection process goes regarding the problems that he chooses to study. For example, if someone spends all his life studying only the white swans, no matter how objective he is, you learn nothing about another important class of swans from his writing simply because he did not bother to understand them.<br /><br />This is why, it is most illuminating to read opinions of people, who used to reject a certain hypothesis for long time, but now has moved to opposite camp. If Hell turns into a gold bug, I would be very curious to read his opinions.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-43850073603044881272009-12-03T17:22:32.693+02:002009-12-03T17:22:32.693+02:00Thai, I debated about Roth vs regular IRA for my o...Thai, I debated about Roth vs regular IRA for my own 401K, and could not come up with a definite answer. It is not a simple question, because one needs to figure out future tax rates (after 30 years), growth of retirement funds and future income/earning potential post-retirement age, when those funds mature. Even a single one of those variables is hard to call. Three together would be nightmare.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-88445070679685580182009-12-03T14:37:49.136+02:002009-12-03T14:37:49.136+02:00Greenie, you are correct hence my comment on aspec...Greenie, you are correct hence my comment on aspect and emotion and one further point I will continue with if in parallel as you argue with Tiago if you don't mind.<br /><br />ALL decisions require an engineer's classic trade off between competing issues, and I mean ALL.<br /><br />Take the simple example of word choice when creating a sentence.<br /><br />If you read any linguistics, you will quickly realize that the more linguists have tried to break words into to their most "atomic" level (e.g. that which is no longer divisible), they have discovered that these atomic building blocks have yet further building blocks from which they are comprised. <br /><br />The way we comprise words, etc... is simply a reflection of how we grouped particular building blocks together, which in turn is still a function of choices our brain made in evolution over time, etc...<br /><br />But once one set of building block choices are comprised, others cannot be. It becomes a classic engineers trade off as opening one door closes another.<br /><br />"Emotion" sits as a filter at every one of those decisions junctions no matter how atomic you try to take this issue- of course at some subatomic levels it does get into issues of whether the word emotion continues to be appropriate.<br /><br />Just think about. You can Google it yourself if you don't believe me. The neuro quants have made a lot of headroom on this issue in recent years and it is clear: the duality problem is always there. <br /><br />It is what it is.<br /><br />Be well<br /><br />Anyway, I will return to our regularly scheduled program of fighting the war of the world. ;-)Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-42376131694421359452009-12-03T14:16:31.307+02:002009-12-03T14:16:31.307+02:00Thanks Hell and "yes, I am". I'm goi...Thanks Hell and "yes, I am". I'm going to find a specialist to talk with the group on the issue, just curious if you had thoughts.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-73056752907764498552009-12-03T12:41:58.964+02:002009-12-03T12:41:58.964+02:00Dear Thai,
Re: 401k/ROTH 401k
It is a very compl...Dear Thai,<br /><br />Re: 401k/ROTH 401k<br /><br />It is a very complicated question. The answer depends on the age of the participants, their taxation prospects and a host of other particular details.<br /><br />I am not qualified or informed enough to make a suggestion. Sorry..<br /><br />(I presume you are aware of the main difference between the two plans, i.e. about pre-tax and post tax contributions, yes?)<br /><br />Regards,<br />H.Hellasioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-30991668941079602382009-12-03T11:59:51.508+02:002009-12-03T11:59:51.508+02:00excellent post!
Clearly, denial seems to be the o...excellent post!<br /><br />Clearly, denial seems to be the only policy being adopted for now....davidhttp://thebullishbear.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-17867544196537113172009-12-03T09:52:03.988+02:002009-12-03T09:52:03.988+02:00"So, we see a different world.
I see this wo..."So, we see a different world.<br /><br />I see this world:<br />http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/"<br /><br />Being dumb as a doornail, I still do not get your point. You are saying China is polluted, but I can get you similar pictures for India. How is democracy related to it?Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-18275734128754998012009-12-03T05:40:59.418+02:002009-12-03T05:40:59.418+02:00Fajensen, we should be so lucky and live so long t...Fajensen, we should be so lucky and live so long to ever see Goldman employees-and I am not counting the poor folks who sling hash at the cafeteria- intentionally harm one another with so much as a desiccated spitball.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-9886848379552064432009-12-03T03:05:19.353+02:002009-12-03T03:05:19.353+02:00Greenie, this too shall pass...
A thought on the ...Greenie, this too shall pass...<br /><br />A thought on the issue of emotion on this blog if I might. Please re-read your own writings on the failings of democracy, only this time from the viewpoint that you are looking for emotion in the article. A few quick notable mentions might include (but not be limited to):<br /><br />Greenie: "Aristotle, the wisest person of the society, was vehemently against Democracy. That is a strong verdict IMO"<br /><br />Thai: Trust?<br /><br />Greenie: "Democratic man is arrogant"<br /><br />Thai: some kind of emotion, no?<br /><br />Greenie: "Democratic man tries to solve every problem of the society and does not accept that some problems are unsolvable."<br /><br />Thai: faith? Modeling the future behavior of others using inductive reasoning? Epistomologically incorrect?<br /><br />Greenie: "Democracy is a highly perverted system..."<br /><br />Thai: "perversion"? Really, some kind of emotion, no? <br /><br />Greenie: "Corruption is endemic... "<br /><br />Thai: another "some kind of emotion"<br /><br />Greenie, we cannot even think of a world without emotion, none of us can. It is a filter on everything we do, every thought we have.<br /><br />Take this sad (nay gross) <a href="http://cbs3.com/local/aria.frankford.hospital.2.1346409.html" rel="nofollow">story</a>:<br /><br />Think of the bear infinite number of aspects/viewpoint various readers will come into the story with and therefore leave reading it with completely opposite conclusions: <br /><br />1. Marcus: American health care is so messed up, people are waiting 80 minutes and dying of heart attacks and if we had nationalized medicine, we would clean this mess up.<br /><br />2. Thai: How sad for that poor man. And how unbelievably sad for that poor ED physician working on that shift. 2 out of 3 of his patients are narcotic seekers, an unbelievably tragic national problem which the poor ED physician can not possibly solve, but they kept him from seeing the one guy in the waiting room who he could have helped since he can treat a heart attack. Now he and everyone else involved will be sued. Bad break. It would be great if more resources were coming to help him out but I already know there is a huge shortage of ER docs, nurses, etc... and no one wants to pay more.<br /><br />Okie: This requires justice and I will be the first to help that dead man's family. I know the hospital and the ED physician are a deep pocket that can help his children still go to college, we will make them pay.<br /><br />fajensen: America is so messed up! I am glad we do not have all their "issues" and I don't want them.<br /><br />Greenie: This is yet another example of how American exceptionalism is such a myth and democracy is simply messed up.<br /><br />Debra: Forgive us our tresspasses<br /><br />etc...<br /><br /><br />Just think about it...Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-54776683882266784452009-12-03T00:43:24.641+02:002009-12-03T00:43:24.641+02:00A very intelligent periodic commenter on this blog...A very intelligent periodic commenter on this blog recently reminded me that blog communication has a major blind side, specifically its lack of additional communication channels helpful in allow readers to understand what linguists call "aspect"- immortalized with Clinton's famous "it depends what the meaning of 'is', is".<br /><br />Real world communication usually has supplemental communication channels such as physical/situational context and body language/posture/energy level, etc... All these additional communication channels give a non-linear HD picture to what might otherwise be low res/linear when determining another person's aspect/viewpoint/angle of intent, etc... <br /><br />As far as I can tell, most of these additional communication channels helping localize aspect are completely lost in blog world.<br /><br />Anyone have any thoughts on how to improve this or know a link that does?<br /><br /><br />Having said this, and agreeing with Deb that I see how the lack of cooperation in democracy, or the king's blind side in monarchy- sorry, reading Micheal Lewis right now- allows systemic risk to develop in either, still we have to pick a side in life. <br /><br />I therefore chose the democratic jungle over the philosopher king's castle, and will go down with that ship every time... unless a REALLY compelling information structure is presented otherwise. ;-)<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />@Hell <br /><br />I am not sure I mentioned this but I originally came across your blog whilst doing research for my group's 401k- I am it's trustee. Anyway with a trustee's viewpoint as a fixed reference point, I was wondering if you had any general thoughts on how to frame a staff meeting question on how a prolonged deflation might effect one's decision to either start a ROTH 401k or convert from a regular 401k to a ROTH 401k?<br /><br />I swear to god this came up today.<br /><br />I know you do not give investment advice and I AM REALLY NOT LOOKING FOR ANY, but I can't find anything on the internet one way or the other so any general thoughts you might be willing to share on how to frame the issue would be greatly appreciated.<br /><br />I know this may be globally a zero sum issue, but to the 125 men and women who's blind side I have been entrusted to watch, thoughts on framing the issue would be most helpful.<br /><br />RegardsThaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-78585305955744235902009-12-02T23:26:02.708+02:002009-12-02T23:26:02.708+02:00My point is precisely that: I don't have your ...My point is precisely that: I don't have your personal datapoints. I have others. And they point in a different direction.<br /><br />So, we see a different world.<br /><br />I see this world:<br />http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/Tiagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09130634176057923895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-19975112020567286172009-12-02T23:06:50.816+02:002009-12-02T23:06:50.816+02:00"someone that suggests that China is a better..."someone that suggests that China is a better place than Brazil to live"<br /><br />Many of my Chinese friends went back to China/Taiwan/Singapore from USA, and would never think about living in Brazil of all places. My mom prefers to live in India even with all the corruption. Muslims in Switzerland are not doing too ok this week (thanks to Democracy), and may be better off in Dubai or UAE. What is your point?Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-6645087118913451902009-12-02T22:56:57.504+02:002009-12-02T22:56:57.504+02:00In all fairness we should acknowledge that the sim...In all fairness we should acknowledge that the simple "fact" of being able to express ourselves in this way on this blog is a tribute to the democratic experiment.<br />We would NOT be expressing ourselves this way in... China, for example.<br />You guys need to hone up on those liberal arts reading/writing skills. The lack of them keeps (some of) you from developing the nuances of what we're talking about on this post.<br />I NEVER said I was in favor of.. dictatorship.<br />But.. I think we need a serious rehaul of the "democratic" system. Successive Anti-Terrorism and Death Penalty legislation, coupled with the Patriot Act have succeeded in expanding those irksome little EXECUTIVE privileges to an alarming point... Executive expansion STARTED, as I recall, in the EARLY twentieth century, so you can SEE how far we've come already.<br />Marcus, your complaints about my "generalizations" are tiresome, do they mean that you insist on having links to Wikipedia as a "legitimate" authority to judge what I'm saying by ??<br />Can't you use your OWN reason ? Or do you have to have a specialist to tell you what to think/who to believe ?Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-18131147973067634292009-12-02T21:46:05.737+02:002009-12-02T21:46:05.737+02:00Democracy in Afganistan? Even in the USA is to be ...Democracy in Afganistan? Even in the USA is to be discussed.<br /><br />I suppose it will be quite difficult to discuss with someone that suggests that China is a better place than Brazil to live. I suppose we see too completely different worlds.Tiagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09130634176057923895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-79170514125808486502009-12-02T21:42:42.022+02:002009-12-02T21:42:42.022+02:00I grew up in India and know how well (or how badly...I grew up in India and know how well (or how badly) democracy works. Brazil is doing well now, but for a while USSR also looked like a great country. China is kicking the asses of all three BTW, and it is not a democracy. And let's not forget, Fascism was the preferred model in early 1930s, as Germany came out of the depression first. Oh, BTW, how is your Afghan experiment going ever since George Bush established democracy there?<br /><br />Anyway you look at it, there are as many failed democracies as failed dictatorships or failed Christian republics. I understand that in this board, when data contradicts emotion, emotion wins,Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-11776848034756474292009-12-02T21:31:52.664+02:002009-12-02T21:31:52.664+02:00Mencken -
"Politicians seldom if ever get [i...Mencken -<br /><br />"Politicians seldom if ever get [into public office] by merit alone, at least in democratic states. Sometimes, to be sure, it happens, but only by a kind of miracle. They are chosen normally for quite different reasons, the chief of which is simply their power to impress and enchant the intellectually underprivileged….Will any of them venture to tell the plain truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about the situation of the country, foreign or domestic? Will any of them refrain from promises that he knows he can’t fulfill – that no human being could fulfill? Will any of them utter a word, however obvious, that will alarm or alienate any of the huge pack of morons who cluster at the public trough, wallowing in the pap that grows thinner and thinner, hoping against hope? Answer: may be for a few weeks at the start…. But not after the issue is fairly joined, and the struggle is on in earnest…. They will all promise every man, woman and child in the country whatever he, she or it wants. They’ll all be roving the land looking for chances to make the rich poor, to remedy the irremediable, to succor the unsuccorable, to unscramble the unscrambleable, to dephlogisticate the undephlogisticable. They will all be curing warts by saying words over them, and paying off the national debt with money no one will have to earn. When one of them demonstrates that twice two is five, another will prove that it is six, six and a half, ten, twenty, n. In brief, they will divest themselves from their character as sensible, candid and truthful men, and simply become candidates for office, bent only on collaring votes. They will all know by then, even supposing that some of them don’t know it now, that votes are collared under democracy, not by talking sense but by talking nonsense, and they will apply themselves to the job with a hearty yo-heave-ho. Most of them, before the uproar is over, will actually convince themselves. The winner will be whoever promises the most with the least probability of delivering anything."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-61365403879526677782009-12-02T21:17:43.637+02:002009-12-02T21:17:43.637+02:00Ah... Dictatorship works so well, especially in bi...Ah... Dictatorship works so well, especially in big countries. Just check China or the USSR. Former USSR.<br /><br />Brasil is doing very badly.<br /><br />India is the only so-so case.<br /><br />I am curious where people here would put the US (and UK) regarding being a democracy. Being based on a "first past the post" system of "democracy".<br /><br />Anyway, fetishization of the wise dictator. Nice platonists around here, I see.Tiagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09130634176057923895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-86476975379355436102009-12-02T20:45:38.124+02:002009-12-02T20:45:38.124+02:00Debra, Instead of a general complaint about not un...Debra, Instead of a general complaint about not understanding me, and attempting to read my emotional state, you might try to give specifics. Exactly what don't you understand? And cut the crap about emotional response.<br /><br />Maybe a better phrasing of my last statement:<br /><br />"That is what is forgotten in the age of idiocy we find ourselves. Conservative v liberal--bullshit--the good of society v the innate corruption of man."<br /><br />might be better phrased:<br /><br />Instead of focusing on conservative v liberal bullshit, the good of society through mitigation of the innate corruption of man, should be our focus.marcusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-19161095750457184282009-12-02T20:34:28.453+02:002009-12-02T20:34:28.453+02:00Eww, Greenie, I got goosebumps reading the first t...Eww, Greenie, I got goosebumps reading the first two paragraphs of your link on democracy.<br />WE NEED THEORY ???<br />DRING. It's about time that I launched into my monthly incitation to you guys to go BACK and read the Merchant of Venice.<br />So much more enjoyable than economics/history professors, too.<br />Wouldn't you rather get your cultcha from a playright than a professor ? And be... entertained too ??Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-40082223220544553142009-12-02T20:25:50.285+02:002009-12-02T20:25:50.285+02:00Marcus, you have lost me. I do not follow you.
Som...Marcus, you have lost me. I do not follow you.<br />Sometimes I think that you must go all emotional over me on this blog.<br />I still maintain that every political system has its.. advantages and disadvantages, and that corruption is endemic in every society.<br /> HOWEVER... to get back to Hell's... IDEALISM, shall we say, democracy's... ADVANTAGES are more APPARENT in a society with an educated citizenry. And democracy certainly works best in SMALL societies, NOT in large ones where I think it becomes impracticable because of those sheer numbers that you guys are all so attached to...<br />Good point about Christianity, Greenie. <br />I DO think that it is positive that we are at least starting to QUESTION that democracy ideal.<br />Questioning means that... THINKING is on the way. <br />Geez, it's about time that we stopped bowing down in front of that idol (sorry Hell, what did you say, IDEAL ?).Debrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01510189619803992336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-72104416535354425612009-12-02T18:44:34.226+02:002009-12-02T18:44:34.226+02:00Debra: "Which is why I say that it is the na...Debra: "Which is why I say that it is the nature of MONEY to corrupt, and this corruption transcends ALL political systems."<br /><br />The nature of gold is to be very malleable, non-corrosive, and rare element. <br /><br />The nature of man is to be corruptible by power. This is why we have three branches of government, an attempt to create a balance of power and a check on absolute power.<br /><br />Very cynical in a way, yet an attempt at mitigating a flaw in the nature of man. That is what is forgotten in the age of idiocy we find ourselves. Conservative v liberal--bullshit--the good of society v the innate corruption of man.marcusnoreply@blogger.com