tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post8212930250425672534..comments2024-03-22T05:15:17.042+02:00Comments on Sudden Debt: Zeroeing-In On DeflationHellasioushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03564511281240682625noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-51010731054929322112009-01-03T09:00:00.001+02:002009-01-03T09:00:00.001+02:00funny vedio ,online games this is my site see thi...<A HREF="www.entertainment-help.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow"> funny vedio ,online games </A>this is my site <BR/>see this site u really enjoy and click my advertisement , <BR/>it yours friend requestAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-56552883481335528642009-01-03T09:00:00.000+02:002009-01-03T09:00:00.000+02:00ur blog Is very niceur blog Is very niceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-61322494512414432422008-12-15T08:28:00.000+02:002008-12-15T08:28:00.000+02:00TFS,This article by Michael Hudson does a good job...TFS,<BR/>This article by Michael Hudson does a good job of explaining the instablity of the current imbalances in the $ reserve system:<BR/><BR/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/12/capitalism-ii-brave-new-world.htmlyoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-12988248076237630212008-12-15T08:16:00.000+02:002008-12-15T08:16:00.000+02:00TFS,Many foreigners want to get rid of their $ but...TFS,<BR/>Many foreigners want to get rid of their $ but everyone is afraid of triggering a stampede and the US govt will not allow the orderly purchase of assets. China tried to buy an oil company and Dubai tried to buy the ports operator and congress blocked both deals. <BR/><BR/>Foreign $ holders are being held hostage, either hold on to your $ or get scalped in the FOREX market but no asset sales will be allowed. Foreign investors often are stripped of voting rights when buying equity in US banks. The pressure will continue to grow; either asset sales must be allowed or eventually someone will trigger a panic by trying to be the first to dump their $ in the FOREX mkts. Fewer and fewer people believe anymore that US debts can be repaid.yoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-51839751141027808402008-12-15T01:26:00.000+02:002008-12-15T01:26:00.000+02:00Thai:Interesting you should say that the Chinese t...Thai:<BR/><BR/>Interesting you should say that the Chinese trust each other. A friend of mine has a Chinese girlfriend (born, raised, and still a citizen of the country). He is an American, and is presently living with her in China. <BR/><BR/>His comment, and she agrees, is that China is more like 1984 than a country throwing off communism. One must be very careful of what one says, for fear of being reported. Also, one cannot expect personal property to be respected. At the same time, he reports there is no feeling of a need for change, or that there is anything 'wrong' or dysfunctional with the society. This may be an American bias, true, but it is collaborated by a Chinese person.<BR/><BR/>Whether or not the Chinese people change the system, one way or the other I don't think China as we know it will survive this depression.<BR/><BR/>Yoyomo: <BR/><BR/>I find your hypothesis of inflation-by-dollar-repatriation very interesting. Do you see any real-world moves in that direction? <BR/><BR/>One of the 'problems' with causing inflation is, of course, velocity of money. How do you see the repatriated dollars flowing into the greater economy, rather than simply languishing on a marked-to-make-believe balance sheet somewhere?<BR/><BR/>Greenie: <BR/><BR/>I read London Banker's post, and I confess that I found his argument for deflation irrational at best. Even if deflation were in the works (which I will argue it isn't), it would seem to me that cash (or equivalent) would be a better holding than gold in such an environment. <BR/><BR/>Gold is only a good investment, really, when inflation is burning through purchasing power. Another issue with gold is government confiscation. It happened in the 1929 Depression, so there is no reason it won't happen in the 2007 Depression. But, again, confiscation is a concern brought on by inflation, not deflation.The Frugal Scotsmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11463422163905012400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-70897544227604008952008-12-15T01:13:00.000+02:002008-12-15T01:13:00.000+02:00Oops, Thai, bilingualism got to me.The word that i...Oops, Thai, bilingualism got to me.<BR/>The word that interests me is not CONSCIENCE.<BR/>It is consciousness. That is in a different league.<BR/>Jacques Lacan attempted to reduce human psychology to mathemes.<BR/>Whatever way you look at it, it is still reductionist thinking. For me, it doesn't work, and is a major part of our collective problem.<BR/><BR/>Greenie, I didn't want to imply that you had willingly belittled me in the past. Far from it.<BR/>But I definitely do not believe that free market capitalism is what is going to save us.<BR/>I hate big government too, or at least a big government which is constantly legislating on nitpicking things, and not working on the essentiels: example, Bruxelles has recently decided to take cold water out of all public baths (reminds me of the piss warm water coming out of all those shower faucets in U.S. youth hostels this summer ; must be the same reasoning). Because we might get hydrocution (cardiac arrest from shock due to cold water). At the same time Bruxelles has also raised the minimum levels authorized for pesticides in our food (the level is up 20% in the past 5 years).. Bruxelles makes me foam at the mouth.<BR/>But trusting the markets to make things right is naïve in my book. Free market capitalism is anthropophagic : it eats up anything and everything, like those angry African ants. And it is self-destructive.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-68958568847162750132008-12-15T00:53:00.000+02:002008-12-15T00:53:00.000+02:00Just a Bit Late but:Hurrah for Sue "Personally Iḿ ...Just a Bit Late but:<BR/>Hurrah for Sue "Personally Iḿ having a blast in this deflation. I saved like crazy since I graduated college, and I didn´t buy much..."(Dec 10th). I have lived on a boat for 12 years and am driving a 10 year old car into the ground while knocking down 6 figures- DO NOT SPEND ANYTHING!<BR/>And Kudos to Anon for recognizing what I have been harping about, that our overconsumption cannot be fuelled by more liquidity - if we are to survive.<BR/>p.s. I am hard pressed enough to comprehend everything here without having to worry about grammer.Ricochet Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14095051832984123551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-53394030698605048702008-12-14T16:58:00.000+02:002008-12-14T16:58:00.000+02:00Life After ZIRP?What might be the unintended conse...Life After ZIRP?<BR/><BR/>What might be the unintended consequences if ZIRP goes negative and the following were put into effect?<BR/><BR/>The Gov. uses 'force' on mortgage and debt holders to decrement debt by -10% (of the original amount) for each -1% in CPI(the ShadowStats version)?<BR/><BR/>Cancel all credit cards and rely on debit cards instead.<BR/><BR/>Brian PAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-65753018388969986742008-12-14T15:43:00.000+02:002008-12-14T15:43:00.000+02:00Regarding gold, this article will explain why I pr...Regarding gold, this article will explain why I prefer gold.<BR/><BR/>http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2008/12/deflation-has-become-inevitable.html<BR/><BR/>I do not want to be looted, and my option is either to park my money in another foreign currency or gold. Given that all governments are following US's lead to rob savers to support failed bankers, gold is the best currency to survive the theft.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-79284598849199936012008-12-14T15:40:00.000+02:002008-12-14T15:40:00.000+02:00Debra, I do not recall knowingly mocking you. Only...Debra, I do not recall knowingly mocking you. Only thing I mock here is Hell's posts that start with criticizing government's control of money and economic system, and ends with yet another idea for manipulation (energy-backed currency), or increasing funding for alternative-energy research, as if society is unable to do that without government meddling.<BR/><BR/>Regarding whether human action is natural, I do see continuity between all organisms every time I sit with the genomes. However, what I meant by natural action here is to reduce the amount of government meddling we see lately. Why does government have to bailout a small group of bankers with money from all of us? Why does government want to support zombie car companies, whose products are rejected by people? Where does it end? <BR/><BR/>If Bernanke and Paulson claim that they could not see it coming, why not let the central bank being run by those who could see it, or even better shut down the central bank? <BR/><BR/>I do not understand what you mean, when you say that you are not on the same wavelength. Are you for failure to be supported and success/prudence to be rejected, as I see in every stage of US economy? <BR/><BR/>If you do not see that as a good way to run the country, there are two alternatives - (a) government needs to support success and reject failure, or (b) government needs to stay out of propping any kind of business. When I say human nature should work, I am for (b). Hell is for (a), but in my opinion, capitalistic system can already do it. Why do we need government to meddle at all?Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-89290597559699468162008-12-14T14:00:00.000+02:002008-12-14T14:00:00.000+02:00Debra,conscience, i.e. the ability to distinguish ...Debra,<A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscience" REL="nofollow">conscience</A>, i.e. the ability to distinguish 'right' from 'wrong'- I thought you were the psychologist? <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/13/magazine/13Psychology-t.html?pagewanted=all" REL="nofollow">"Math" has very definitley moved into the realm of descibing just how natural conscience is</A>.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-46307515103033893172008-12-14T13:00:00.000+02:002008-12-14T13:00:00.000+02:00Thai, I'm not sure that CONSCIENCE (whatever that...Thai, I'm not sure that CONSCIENCE (whatever that is...) is natural.<BR/>But, our evolutive course is taking us further and further away from being embodied (just like in that Star Trek episode I keep harping about), and I see a relation between disembodiment and technological rapine and spoliation. It is not a constructive relation, I fear.<BR/>I don't really think that I am a Rousseauist, Thai.<BR/>But I definitely reject mechanistic "explanations" of human behavior.<BR/>They are soulless, and I want to be a person with a soul (an animal with a soul, not necessarily immortal), not a complex, mathmatical machine.<BR/>Actually, I see no reason why animals can't have souls, too. All living things. (See Pullman, the Dark Matters Trilogy).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-71564286177197247582008-12-14T10:49:00.000+02:002008-12-14T10:49:00.000+02:00Thai,My question to you is "Can't a collapsing dol...Thai,<BR/><BR/>My question to you is "Can't a collapsing dollar act exactly the same way as the Fed turning on the printing presses?"<BR/><BR/>For the purpose of creating price inflation, yes it will have the same effect but that would be tantamount to default. The govt can't afford a $ collapse before working out a repayment agreement with its creditors; its hegemony is no longer so total that it can dick its creditors/trading partners with impunity. <BR/><BR/>Someone has to take the loss on all that bad debt and foreign creditors want it to be the Americans who incurred it. If Americans flee the $, it will collapse and foreign creditors will be stuck with worthless IOU's. Its the same reason Argentina froze the savings accounts of its population when they had their crisis, so the peso would retain some value on the FOREX market and enable the govt to buy $ to cover essential imports. To do that it had to prevent its citizens from flooding the FOREX markets with pesos and the US would be expected to do the same.<BR/><BR/>WRT expat$ coming home, if that dam breaks it would lead to hyperinflation and the govt would be hard pressed to prevent foreigners from using their $ to buy assets that they are currently prohibited from buying. It's not a workable plan for solving the debt overhang. You can't claim reserve currency status and screw around with exchange rates to that extent.yoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-87139260353033429322008-12-14T05:16:00.000+02:002008-12-14T05:16:00.000+02:00LOL!!! I am not so quick to rule the Chinese out;...LOL!!! <BR/><BR/>I am not so quick to rule the Chinese out; I have been hearing 'breakup' stories for years (ever since Russia collpased). <BR/><BR/>From my perspective, China still has perhaps the greatest resources any country needs going for it:<BR/><BR/>1. <A HREF="http://www.deanlebaron.com/misc/speidell_files/image026.jpg" REL="nofollow">They trust each other</A>.<BR/><BR/>2. <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_and_the_Wealth_of_Nations" REL="nofollow">They are very intelligent</A>.<BR/><BR/>It is hard for me to see how a very bright people who play well together cannot accomplish amazing things. And the more China throws the shackles of communism off, I think the better they will do- yet the still cooperate on areas that matter, such as fertility. <BR/><BR/>FYI- for these same reasons, the Chinese do not scare me either.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-48178648158976821222008-12-14T02:31:00.000+02:002008-12-14T02:31:00.000+02:00Thai: sorry to be a bit late in replying.Given the...Thai: sorry to be a bit late in replying.<BR/><BR/>Given the United States' new policy of preemptive assault on sovereign nations, nuclear war is not completely out of the picture. In fact, I would posit that any future resource grabs made by this country will become more and more automated (armed drones, smarter weapons, etc.). ICBMs aren't exactly subtle, but tactical ('bunker buster') nukes are possibilities; artillery-fired nukes were experimented with, so it's not like it can't be done.<BR/><BR/>However, Russia has as big of a stick as the United States (perhaps bigger), so it would take some serious effort to keep Russia from feeding the US some nuclear medicine, if the US should go nuclear.<BR/><BR/>I really don't think a nuclear winter is something that Russia wants. If they can maintain a level of energy leverage, especially as the United States becomes poorer and relatively more deindustralised (due to increased energy scarcity), Russia can probably convince the United States that it really doesn't want to become radioactive. But, this is all speculation... nuclear war isn't out the window until the ability to wage it is gone.<BR/><BR/>Regarding currency devaluation: the physical amount of US Dollars is actually relatively insignificant; M0 and M1 are tiny compared to M2 and M3. <BR/><BR/>Also, one's debt would not be halved in 'painfulness' unless one's income doubles; the amount of money in the economy doesn't do anything to values unless it has velocity. If enough money starts slopping around that one sees a nominal doubling of one's wages, then at that point one's debt load has been effectively halved.<BR/><BR/>Regarding cooperation: there is a possibility that Americans will wake up on Monday and want to actually work for an honest living... but I really don't see that coming for quite some time. People have, quite frankly, gotten used to the gravy train: fiat money. The day that the country forswears paper currencies and accepts classic hard money is the day that honest productivity will return. <BR/><BR/>This isn't very popular, of course. Hard money will reveal to the country what it doesn't want to hear: we are a very poor people. If you take money out of the picture, I agree with Greenie's observation: unnecessary meddling with the economy has destabilised the system (and thereby distorted markets and impaired their function).<BR/><BR/>Finally, a general comment on China. I realise it seems that China will be a big player on the world scene in the coming years, but I posit that the country will fall apart long before then. The why is several fold:<BR/><BR/>1) Communism has always failed<BR/>2) No common law tradition<BR/>3) A socially destructive male/female ratio imbalance (thereby guaranteeing demographic collapse)<BR/>4) Unsustainable energy requirements<BR/><BR/><BR/>...no, I don't just like to hear myself talking... :-PThe Frugal Scotsmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11463422163905012400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-37206764827841292462008-12-14T02:16:00.000+02:002008-12-14T02:16:00.000+02:00Deb, my apologies for the all the spelling/composi...Deb, my apologies for the all the spelling/composition/grammar/syntax errors. Okie has also asked the same of me on several occasions. I truly am the world's worst student of english grammar- I literally just don't see my errors until long after they have been posted. I do promise to keep trying to improve- no promises on results however.<BR/><BR/>As for your man 'not natural' argument- nonsense. <BR/><BR/>Are beaver damns 'not natural'? <BR/>How about bee hives?<BR/>Or ant colonies? <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/16-11/pl_print" REL="nofollow">The idea of the <B><I>superorganism</I></B> is pretty firmly established in biology today</A> to the point it is almost considered 'fact' in some academic circles.<BR/><BR/>Remember, evolution is pushing us to cooperate every bit as hard as it is pushing us to compete.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-996411614243794322008-12-14T01:02:00.000+02:002008-12-14T01:02:00.000+02:00Greenie, I can tell that we are not on the same wa...Greenie, I can tell that we are not on the same wavelength, but, sigh ! ... I'm afraid that my attempts to convince you otherwise will be ignored/belittled.<BR/>But, just because I can't resist provocation...<BR/><BR/>Since when was there anything "natural" about man ? Man hasn't been natural since he started congregating in the cities, in the hope of blotting out any conscience of his dependance on nature.<BR/><BR/>Just how, pray tell, does one envisage an economic system WITHOUT TAKING MONEY INTO ACCOUNT ?<BR/>A little bit like taking a drive without the car, perhaps ?<BR/>My lovely Bernard Maris book calls money "le nerf de la guerre" : the nervous system of our collective combat, certainly the most important means of alienation that we have come up with for millenia.<BR/><BR/>Lastly, my friends, I don't want to sound like a prissy schoolmistress, or, God forbid, one of those preppy Ivy League types that turn so many Americans off these days (I swear to God, I didn't go to an Ivy League school, promise...), BUT...<BR/><BR/>Could we all make a little more effort with our spelling /composition/syntax on this blog ? It's getting a little difficult to read the posts (and I'm not talking about those evidently written by foreigners, for whom I am willing to make concessions.)<BR/><BR/>Thank you and good night. : )Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-13369194895603782432008-12-13T21:15:00.000+02:002008-12-13T21:15:00.000+02:00Thai, How about thinking each currency as the stoc...Thai, How about thinking each currency as the stock certificate of the country? In that case, all your inflow-outflow arguments will only be a small part of the big picture, such as assuming that every stock investor is rational and buys stocks based on the profitability, balance sheet and PE of the company.<BR/><BR/>What I want to say is that there is a large component of emotions involved and that emotion drives the relative values of currencies more than money flow. You need to predict emotions (try it with your girlfriend/SO first :) ).Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-69426396368023947242008-12-13T18:31:00.000+02:002008-12-13T18:31:00.000+02:00Greenie- you are correct, part of the difficulty i...Greenie- you are correct, part of the difficulty in discussing value and assets classes (like a country's fiat currency or gold, or any other investment) is the lack of a "fixed" fundamental currency benchmark- Hell is saying the same with his Greenback proposal, the only problem is the Greenback still has the same 'human analysis' wild-card/corruption element our current Federal Reserve-fiat currency system has... And 'yes', the desire to live off the 'sugar daddy' labor of others has been amply expressed by a several of commenters on this blog- It is a human trait not unique to only Wall Street.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Yo- I think I understanding my confusion and it centers around your statement- "If the $ collapses from outflows before the Fed has printed what it needs to bail out the banks the banks will collapse..."<BR/><BR/>My question to you is "Can't a collapsing dollar act exactly the same way as the Fed turning on the printing presses?"<BR/><BR/>What percentage of all dollars in the world are really outside the US? How big is the dollar FOREX market? If my memory serves me correctly, I think it is enormous... A quick google search says it's about $30 Trillion/year, i.e many times the size of the US economy (about $14 Trillion). <BR/><BR/>So a repatriation of even a small % of those FOREX bills back to US boarders would represent a massive increase in the supply of dollars within US boarders would it not? And isn't this the very definition of inflation? (i.e. an increase in the money supply?)<BR/><BR/>So if the money supply in the US doubled from FOREX repatriations, all debt in the US to others in the US would be worth 1/2 as much as it is today- that would go a long way towards solving the issue internally. That would go a long way towards helping debtors in the US with NO WAY that the Chinese could say we didn't pay them back. <BR/><BR/>Is this logic correct?Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-73929329336825514612008-12-13T14:56:00.000+02:002008-12-13T14:56:00.000+02:00CHINA'S COMMUNIST PARTY: ATROPHY AND ADAPTATIONWas...CHINA'S COMMUNIST PARTY: ATROPHY AND ADAPTATION<BR/>Washington, D.C.<BR/>Tuesday, April 15, 2008<BR/>DAVID SHAMBAUGH<BR/>Nonresident Senior Fellow<BR/>The Brookings Institution<BR/>Discussant<BR/>CHENG LI<BR/>Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center<BR/>The Brookings Institution<BR/><BR/>Interesting paper in context to thought in policy to date. I see the asian currency market swaps are "hopefully" leveling solutions instead of demanding so called Western Fiat currency calls and there leveling of contracts will enable stabilization to there trading partners tendacies to demand interests. In context to debt issues I will try to pass there firewall and discuss there current bent of mind to there extended currency policy to contact in earnest.<BR/>My expierence with there culture has been positive as we discussed tools of reason to free market looking to solutions. We started out watching our children grow and discussion on Hayek, Mises, and what we trended to classical economic misnomers to ignore the common man. Fiat as we know as "let it be". We reasoned shoes on people feet and roof's over people feet with minimal interference from the state was a good start and when to protect capital in malinvestment periods to normalizations and jurisdictioanl interferences to waste. Wisdom is never given but must be passed to each other. I enjoy this format here and as we all know capitalism does need a leash to assist ordianary solutions infrastuture needs. Indeed there are imbalances and 44% of my capital is to the next predicated cycle. As to the IMHO survey to date: History will show this as a failure of Socialism and Socialists. We have not seen the top or the end of this house of cards. Eventually the cards have to collapse like the Soviet Union except this will be a worldwide collapse an a lot more people will suffer. What is needed to prevent any further credit expansion is to place the banking business under the general rules of commercial and civil laws compelling every individual and firm to fulfill all obligations in full compliance with the terms of the contract.<BR/>A society that chooses between capitalism and socialism does not choose between two social systems; it chooses between social cooperation and the disintegration of society. Socialism: is not an alternative to capitalism; it is an alternative to any system under which men can live as human beings. If some among you fear taking a stand because you are afraid of reprisals from customers, clients, or even government, recognize that you are just feeding the crocodile hoping he'll eat you last.<BR/>Thank you all for the food for thought.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-439198498787871732008-12-13T12:13:00.000+02:002008-12-13T12:13:00.000+02:00Thai,Yo- help me out. Why would the government not...Thai,<BR/><BR/>Yo- help me out. Why would the government not want some flight from the dollar? Wouldn't that create the inflation they want without resorting to printing? And 20% in my opinion is definitely hyper inflation.<BR/><BR/>The Fed needs to print not primarily to inflate but first to cover the bad debts of the banks which will result in inflation eventually. If the $ collapses from outflows before the Fed has printed what it needs to bail out the banks the banks will collapse and then the only avenue left would be wholesale nationalization of the entire financial system as their would no longer be left enough of a banking infrastructure to function, the network would be spread too thin and would rip apart. <BR/><BR/>The Fed needs our savings to siphon off the value it needs to settle with creditors otherwise they would consider payment in Monopoly money as a form of default. <BR/><BR/>As for casus belli, China will not attack the US but it can move on Tiawan, give the Afghans & Iraqis stinger missiles like Reagan did and agree with Russia to provide Iran with offensive capabilities to threaten US bases in Qatar & Bahrain, etc. There's a lot a hostile superpower can do short of direct confrontation to damage an adversary the way the US and the USSR did in the Cold War. Don't underestimate the sanctity of debt in Eastern culture, to this day people in the Far East sell/indenture their children to pay their debts. Most Americans have no idea how hostile China is prepared to be if the US tries to renege on its debts to them.yoyomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06357340275250708990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-21615388832751824082008-12-13T02:09:00.000+02:002008-12-13T02:09:00.000+02:00@Yoyomo-Great links :) Two sci-fi precedents come ...@Yoyomo-<BR/>Great links :) Two sci-fi precedents come to mind: <BR/>1)Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars (and sequels Blue Mars & Green Mars). It won Hugo and Nebula if I recall correctly. 50 males & 50 females, all PhDs between 40 & 60 to set up the 1st mars habitation. The author is smart, smart, smart. Also lots of lust, but lacking in "historical detail" ;)<BR/>The new Martians quickly tire of Earth's authority once they become self-sufficient. Human nature, no?<BR/>2)A TV series called Firefly that later became a movie called Serenity. Space colonization much like homesteading and the wild, wild west (backwater towns, weird sects, scavenging for parts). A lot messier than Star Trek which by default made it seem more realistic.<BR/><BR/>@Thai-<BR/>I truly appreciate that you think out loud and admit to not always forecasting the right answer. I'm in the same boat as you trying to figure my way out of the fog. I listen to the other "sailors" confidently say they have the answer and are setting course full-steam ahead, but at least half are going to wind up smashed into the cliffs. <BR/><BR/>@Gold-<BR/>Haven't bought any yet, but I have a link to a Canadian seller here in WA that seems reputable. I check the price every day online. Its slowly driving me insane. One day the price will be $2000/oz and Edwardo (and god forbid Greenie) will post "told you so". NO! One day the price will be $300 and I'll have dodged a bullet. NO! The Oracle of Sudden Debt is agnostic about PMs so they should be ignored. %@$&^ing fog!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-37700618449507578682008-12-12T23:49:00.000+02:002008-12-12T23:49:00.000+02:001893 depression had nothing to do with WW I? Only ...1893 depression had nothing to do with WW I? Only intellectually lazy people think depressions are always followed by world wars. A quick check of the history of 1800-1900 proves otherwise.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-71139654944361239342008-12-12T23:31:00.000+02:002008-12-12T23:31:00.000+02:00"Hell- would you pretty please answer this questio..."Hell- would you pretty please answer this question: what do you think will happen to the dollar?"<BR/><BR/>Thai, you have to ask the question in more specific way, because dollar's value is relative, not absolute to other quantities. Are you asking what will happen to dollar w.r.t. gold, or euro or Japanese yen, or Mexican peso or Zimbabwean dollar?<BR/><BR/>BTW, you would like this link:<BR/><BR/>http://humorland.wordmess.net/20081025/what-the-real-crisis-is-like/?ref=patrick.net<BR/><BR/>Their central bank recently congratulated US and UK for following its lead :)Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4102429195693595750.post-20167660064498845542008-12-12T23:27:00.000+02:002008-12-12T23:27:00.000+02:00"people just require retraining"Thai, all the jobs..."people just require retraining"<BR/><BR/>Thai, all the jobs you listed require hard work. Go tell a suited guy working in hedge fund industry that he will not be allowed to shuffle other people's money, but have to relearn to create something of his own - at a salary of $30-40K/year for a doctorate or post-doc in science, and see how excited he gets :).<BR/><BR/>Think about the system without any reference to money and you will understand the problem. The economic system got imbalanced on several fronts due to government meddling. There is oversupply of a certain group of people (realtors, hedge fund managers, bloggers, social network programmers) and undersupply of other groups. In another sign of imbalance, Americans take more and more debt to buy things, while China keeps manufactures everything in the world, but uses nothing. <BR/><BR/>In a natural economic system without government meddling, the system has a tendency to correct, because speculators see imbalance and bet their money accordingly to create the necessary correct. However, every time the system wants to correct, government meddles more with our money (rate cut, TAF, bailout with tax money, etc.). The problem is government meddling can only make the imbalances bigger and bigger, because if it were in the interests of government to fix the imbalances, they wouldn't have had to meddle and let nature work.<BR/><BR/>So, if you want to believe that ultimately government will win over nature, bet on inflation. In that case, you can also believe that government will be able to legislate eternal spring in Texas and cold north, because the winters and summers are so hard to bear.<BR/><BR/>Hell understands the imbalances, but he does not understand the cause. His knowledge of economics is poor. That is why his solutions require more government messing.Greeniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723475560144858107noreply@blogger.com