April CPI data came in and, just as for payrolls, they were waaaaay beyond expectations, with core inflation (ex food and energy) rising at the fastest pace since Ronald Reagan’s first presidency. But unlike Ronnie’s Fed which had the good fortune to have a giant (literally) as Chairman (Paul Volcker), today we are stuck with a wishful thinking non-professional (Jerome Powell).
Good luck to us all, but mostly say a prayer for the US dollar as global reserve currency. Because with Jerome and Janet calling the shots, it hasn’t got a prayer...
Core CPI Rising At Fastest Pace Since The Gipper Was Prez
This tweet nailed it lol... transitory?
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1392478963033837570?s=19
Hi Hell,... I was thinking about what you said... many posts ago...
ReplyDeleteIf my reading of history is right,... I don't think the U.S. is done. This is not the end game. The game has only just begun.
I like Churchill's quote. You can always trust the Americans to do the right thing; after they have tried every other way.
Or maybe in the words of Bismarck are more appropriate. There is a special God that looks after fools and Americans.
Not a scientific analysis... just a feeling ...
Yet, all Empires eventually decline and fall. History is always a great guide and it always repeats/rhymes because human wisdom and folly are unchanged throughout the millennia. However... the speed with which history proceeds has accelerated to its current breakneck pace. Rome rose and fell in 1500 years, China took 600 years, Britain around 300 years. I doubt the US will be a global power past 2050, if not much sooner. All the signs are there, from populism and political polarization to monetary failure.
DeleteThe decline vs. China started some 20 years ago and is accelerating. If nothing else, look at the stunning difference in how each country handled the pandemic, medically, politically, economically fiscally and socially. For the US the basic solution was ... more debt. For China, it was to ask (well, force) people to sacrifice 90 days in a brutal lockdown. Which one is the stronger, more “imperial” nation/society?
To paraphrase (hapless) President Biden: China is.already eating America’s lunch.
a culture where the President can say someone else is eating its lunch, that culture has strength that goes far beyond material resources... and America has material resources.
Deletei think the current system is bankrupt... yes. but the will is there to build something new and that is the important thing... all round the world, people pray for your success... surely God cannot ignore so many prayers.
ok... i know... not logical... i will see if I can put in the logic later...
But China is a decadent totalitarian dystopia of a State. I don't think the American empire will be replaced. There will just not be a new empire in its place; but rather, several wannabes... including the US. That's not necessarily bad.
ReplyDeleteHi camabron, if you take the U.S. out, China will dominate. Its not about resources, we have that mix of intelligence and brutality that allows us to win any game with fixed rules... what the Chinese don't do well at is war and system building (new ideologies, new scientific fields, etc, etc)... what we need now is system building...
DeleteI suspect the only road forward is for the U.S. to become a real empire... It has to go for world government or die trying... And to answer Hell, that road will also solve many of the U.S. internal problems... and global warming.
That means current form of democracy is out, since the current U.S. people probably will not accept others voting on their national policy... but I don't think that is a bad thing. The one man one vote thing never really worked (even the Greeks never thought pure democracy is a good idea).
In their heart of hearts, many Americans are also tired of democracy. Look at Trump's supporters... and on this I concur. Democracy only works if everyone (or most people) put country first. It cannot work if so much of the population has the idea that the country owes them a living. This is true especially of the Blacks. You fight a civil war to free them and they think the country owes them reparations. If you wish, read "Go set a watchman" by Harper Lee... it tells the other half of the story of "To Kill a Mockingbird". The two books must be read together.
America needs to do what Rome did. To hell with democracy... Now the question is what to put in its place... we need some new ideas here... I am thinking of a pay to vote... the more money you give, the more votes you have... solves the taxation issue too. =)
There's no denying the historical, and continuing, social and economic injustice that black people suffer on a daily basis. In the absence of that, reparations are hardly a substitute. Btw, aside from Affirmative Action in colleges, what reparations are black people actually receiving?
DeleteAnd yes, it has been said that the best government is a moderate dictatorship. Which China most certainly is not. Problem is that human nature makes it difficult for dictators to remain contained/moderate. But with social justice, the ills of democracy resolve themselves alone. Problem is, having a one person/one vote system when so many voters have actual, or perceived, grievances. Trump voters have a mix of both. Addressing the real grievances should resolve the problem. Bernie Sanders had it right: We need social programs in order to level the playing field and thus get to actual capitalism; instead of the plutocracy/oligarchy the US now has. It's not different in other underdeveloped countries, Mexico included.
Hi camabron,
DeleteI just really don't like the attitude that the blacks have... feels like they think the country is there to serve them, rather than the other way round... and I don't see any deep gratitude towards a country that actually fought a war with itself on their behalf, feels like the other way round. That style of thinking is poisonous in a democracy.
Perhaps I see them from a more international perspective... sure ... you have been ill treated by the whites... what is the big deal, every people has its tale of woe. Overall, the whites have treated you well beyond any belief. A black child in the U.S. has opportunities that others would kill for... what... not enough?... grab more from your country. Of course someone always has more... but you can't just compare up, you must compare down as well.
That the blacks have the nerve to ask for reparations and no one says it is utterly stupid is because of the power handed to them by democracy... if it does not stop, everyone will stretch out his hand and say me, me, me ... madness ensues... has ensued...
The U.S. thinks voting is some sort of magic that will make the political system right, it is not. It starts from the people. There must be reward for those that care and punishment for those that do not... right now, there is reward for those that grab and punishment for those that say it is bad.
I can say this cause I am not actually in the U.S... if I was there... I would not dare.
The thing is precisely that no, a black child does not have equal opportunity as other children WITHIN the US have. Black children in the US live and must develop in the US, not Ghana, Senegal, etc. That's why they compare themselves to others within the same United States. There's tons of data to support this. It's not a made up racial grievance like many in the Trump camp have.
Deletewhat makes within the US so special? honest question. is some accident of birth so important? more important than accident of color?
DeleteI mean that they must compare themselves to their fellow citizens because they live and must thrive and develop within that same country. So they have to compare themselves, apples to apples, to the people in their own country.
Deletehmmm... I would say it is a multi dimension thing right? You could say compare to:
Deletepeople of the same color;
people of the same country;
people of the same intelligence;
people who work the same number of hours;
people with the same crime rate;
people with the same amount of wealth;
and each comparison seems as valid as any other. I guess the only truly apple to apple comparison is to compare to people, period.
it is not exactly fair to just pick out exactly one set of aspects (say color, being in america) and claim on that basis life has been unfair. actually, the U.S. has been very unfair (within) to poor whites as well... in general, life is unfair to the poor...
anyway, if you did (color, living in america), life is even more unfair to the asians... you don't hear them complaining... they think it is a great country. I know Chinese who worked menial jobs their whole lifes, invested a little (nothing fancy) and are now multi-millionaires. If someone from overseas (who did not speak your language) can do that, surely any poverty problem in america lies with the person himself.
Anecdotal evidence does not a trend make. There is ample proof that the system is more disadvantageous to people of color. I.e. more people of color are poor than white people. It is not by coincidence. Asians are the least prone to be poor, probably because they have access to much better education as a whole than black people. Again, data is ample. Real data, not anecdotal.
Deletesighz... you mean the research done by bogus professors...
Deletethat research all starts from the same fundamental assumption... that all races are equal... is that even true? show me the proof of that.
if you read what they are saying it seems to be oh yes.. we know different races have different color and height... but their i.q. is the same and their cultures all equally good... i swear it and right "scientific" papers on it.
anyway, you can do the maths for yourself on income and returns, you know my story is not implausible... in fact is highly likely to be true for many people.
btw... camabron... sorry abt it, I guess it comes out a bit rude... but for that generation, they came out of the cultural revolution. no school, insane turmoil. arguing that they had a better education does not work.
Deleteif you give chinese a better education (this generation), there is no contest.
sorry, i know there is no way for you to know... but i was just a bit triggered... I apologize about the tone. but i think the point stands.
Private and public data shows black people are way more disadvantaged akoc. Mentally all races are equal, yes. Just as all cats can hunt mice, independent of their fur color ;) No need to apologize. Regards!
Deletethe chinese sometimes say, let us not talk about money, it hurts the friendship.. its usually a sneaky way to get out of debt... lets do the same. =)
Deleteits the American's problem, let them figure it out.
btw camabron, do you think the Mexican people would accept joining the U.S., with citizenship but not full citizenship...
ReplyDeleteNo. Actually it's the southern US, from California to Texas that seceded from Mexico. Not the other way around.
Deletebtw, I have algorithmized my thoughts.
ReplyDeletethis is my proposal for an alternative system... I think it can work and will give the U.S. a huge international appeal... and enormous war fighting capability.
https://a-kind-of-chicken.blogspot.com/2021/05/project-america.html
Gentlemen (ladies?) racial issues come about from social and economic bias. Forget the US for a moment and look at India’s caste system. By comparison (😄) the US smells like a rose. Anyway, yes, colored people in the US are statistically less advantaged... but, look at the incredible progress made in just 50 years. From separate bathrooms to a black man becoming President!!
ReplyDeleteIncredible, just incredible, and I believe possible only in America. Could an Ainu become PM in Japan? A Turk Chancellor in Germany? An Algerian President of France? A Muslim PM in Israel?
And just as incredible, sadly, a Trump right after... what a country, what a people...
yes, i know... even i fell in love with it.
Deleteit is the things that you love that kill you... never a truer statement...
ReplyDeleteEntrepreneur or not, your lifestyle and your decisions should be as thoroughly backed by the maximum amount meticulous planning and care as you'd once you are choosing the annual allow a corporation of your own.
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