The current economic model focuses on “growth”, ie the constant expansion of GDP, a condition I have termed Permagrowth. Since 1960 global GDP has expanded from $1.37 trillion to almost $90 trillion today.
The only solution is to quickly transition to a radically different economic model that will focus on Development instead.
or hurry up and start world war 3 ... that works too =)
ReplyDeletebtw, Hell... on a more serious note. I don't see any solution to global warming that does not include china... but in general, the Chinese don't see honoring agreements as an impt moral value (not judging here, just stating... will explain if you want)... fun right?
ReplyDeleteChina’s greenhouse gas emissions exceed those of U.S. and developed countries combined
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/chinas-greenhouse-gas-emissions-exceed-us-developed-world-report.html
Hi Juanita,
DeleteGreat to see someone new! Are you from Mexico city (like camabron)?
Best Regards,
Chicken
Thank you for the greeting, but I'm not "new" just not very active at posting. I believe my first comment was in 2009 (or thereabouts).
Delete=)
DeleteLaugh... I think Hell thinks I have gone mad and can't figure out how to say it politely.
ReplyDeleteLet me start off by laying out my assumptions clearly.
1) China's current economic model is not sustainable. You can follow mpettis for a long explanation but basically it is that you can't focus constantly on growth at all cost.
https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
2) Where I think Pettis goes wrong is his assumption that the system (being unsustainable) will naturally collapse. Sure, that is true if you play by the rules but China has decided to double down on not playing by the rules.
3) It means there will be no way to negotiate with China on economics, environment on anything else. At least not in the western way of thinking. From here on out, everything will go back to basics... if you cannot make me do something, why should I?
4) The western system is more hollow than anyone gives it credit for. Try reading this:
http://www.dcscience.net/lawrence-the-heart-of-research-is-sick-2011.pdf
It is not me that is mad... it is everyone else... =)
I think China has decided to ride the tiger... it is not going to self implode the way Japanese did. It is going all in on growth at all cost and it needs to make a profit from it somewhere. This means cannibalizing everything in its path.
The scary thing is that this strategy might work.
All I know is that US equity markets are experiencing something extremely frothy... Every other day there's a huge rally in the market. It's just desperate to climb higher.
ReplyDeleteNature which includes humanity, has a way of self-correcting. Just ask the dinosaurs 😜
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