When looking at inflation, the Fed doesn’t much like the mainstream CPI statistics; instead, it prefers the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE). April’s numbers just came out yesterday, see below. It’s the highest monthly reading in ten years.
PCE Inflation Running Super Hot
The Fed keeps on claiming that this is temporary and will go away soon. Further, it says it’s all due to “supply chain disruptions” due to COVID. Really??? How the heck are soybeans impacted, or lumber, or iron ore (China is importing the stuff heavily once again, even at record prices). There is no supply disruption, obviously. It’s just that those many, many more dollars it created are chasing a finite supply of “stuff”. It’s as simple as that...
Iron Ore Prices At All Time Highs
The cost of shipping all this very expensive iron ore to China is also going through the roof - Capesize charter rates have doubled.
It will print more money, arguing that America clearly needs more money to keep up with the ever rising inflation; I am not making this up, it was the argument in Wiemar Germany.
ReplyDelete.... Yes, it was... amazingly enough. And Mr. Biden just came up with a budget proposal that envisions even more printing to fund education and healthcare in the $6 trillion federal budget for 2022.
Deleteever hear of this?
Deletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink
Those poor rats :( what a cruel experiment. Among so many others :(
DeleteI am not sure abt the conclusion they used for the study (that population collapse is linked to overcrowding); i have a suspicion it is more correct to say that infinite food causes population collapse in social species.
Deleteconsider two kinds of rats (people): those that are parasitic (only care about themselves) vs workers that care about community.
In the wild, with finite food supply situation, a community with too many parasites collapses, allowing the better run communities to take over. This favors well run communities.
With infinite food supply, parasites that focus only on themselves out-compete the workers. Due to the huge food supply, such communities do not collapse from the inefficiency; instead a social death occurs, when society no longer functions.
I think that is the fall of civilization mechanics that Hell was referencing; problem is that with globalization, it is one great civilization...
the following explains why the population does not recover after it drops below the original level; basically the workers have been bred out of the population.
DeleteWell... I’m sure we’re a lot smarter than rats. We’ll come to our senses, albeit only after some serious pain is felt. It took two WW’s to establish the UN..
ReplyDeletesounds like fun =)
DeleteDear Hell,
ReplyDeleteYou have been very generous with your sharing; for what it is worth, I will say what I think will happen.
Medium term: the U.S. will die a death by numbers.
I believe that if you are prepared to push every policy lever (i.e. no more free market), you can both print money and have no inflation, NAZI Germany proved that one. The price is an enormous economic crash later on or a war; we all know how that one ended.
The U.S. wants the status-quo to continue; it measures the status-quo in terms of numbers, inflation, GDP, employment, etc. The U.S. will get exactly what it wants but at the expense of everything real. The result will be jobs without work; wealth without worth; laughter without joy.
Long term: The U.S. will rise like a Phoenix (or the French Republic if you prefer), a thing of beauty and splendor.
Warning to the Chinese: do not confuse illogicality with stupidity; kindness with weakness; strength with power.
Best Regards,
Chicken
Well, currently the US is in a cultural civil war (voter restriction bills, QAnon kooks, social conservativism on the rise in trumpland, out of control mass shootings, police accountability blocks, etc.). And the wrong side is winning, at least locally. It's like trumpers are carving out a new secessionist South.
Deletei kinda like the trumpers really; they are one of my favorite bits of America... i find i really like the states and the sort of people that vote trump... the mainstream democrats, not so much... trump himself, not so much...
Deletei think trumpers are not wrong really; they feel something (that is actually good) but don't have the words to say it out properly. they should hire chicken to write for them. joke of the century, a Chinese writing far-right propaganda.
Too bad about the Asian hate business... we deserve it... actually I think it is a good idea, at least for the western societies.... maybe in the long term, it will be good for Asians too, force them to build their own communities, rather than trying to get a pre-built western one.
to answer the question i know camabron will ask...
DeleteI think this is the flaw in the democratic program; love does not conquer all. One cannot love people who steadfastly refuse to love you back, all it does is poison your system. Love of good must be coupled with hatred of evil.
Human rights are great but they come with human duty... And if we go down that path, all those who refuse human duty are by definition, not human... the two go together, good and evil; love and hate... you cannot have one without the other.
the democrats have forgotten the hate in the equation... they exiled it, creating the trumpers... those guys, they want exactly what you want... except they are prepared to kill for it... take them in and you will be whole again...
neither is the break between democrats and republicans real.... it was manufactured by your ruling elite. they have nothing left to offer... so they create artificial divisions and offer the other side as the enemy.
Deletethere is no democrat republican split.... the really split is between people on one side and biden-trump-obama-clinton-bush (and their puppet masters) on the other...
And who might those elites be other than powerful multinational corporations (both private and public)? Nah, the break is very real. It's just that the trumper side is merely "fake breaking", at heart they're the same Corporate hacks as always. The real break though is on the social front. The trumper side has gone full racist. That's why you see those constant culture wars references and legislative bills coming from their side. Trump legitimized their racism and now they're trying very hard to carve out a new white South. The civil war is being re-fought on the social front. And this time they're winning by passing all those voter restriction bills. The Supreme Court should strike them all down, but it's now also leaning toward the trumper side.
Delete...of course the reasons come down to the Democratic party having become full corporatist (corporate hacks) as well. They betrayed their voters' progressive agenda all the way back to Bill Clinton and Obama. And in a nutshell, that's why Trump won, thus encouraging what is happening now.
Deleteahh... racism... sorry I was working of different assumptions.
DeleteHere are mine. A certain amount of racism is fine. Racism taps into the same basic impulse as nationalism, people like me are innately better. If one thinks people of this country are better because they are of this country, he will naturally think people of his color are better too. Thus, if you want a man to die for his country, he is going to be somewhat racist too; no harm in that.
Banning racism is like banning prostitution or banning alcohol; silly and doomed to fail. Anyway the whites are already the least racist people around.... wait till you see the Chinese, they may say the right thing, but they flat out don't see the problem (witness yours truly).
If the Dems don't take the racist/ sexist rhetoric to such extremes and they will be fine. Problem is the racist rhetoric is the only thing they can use to rally support, without offending corporate interest... and there you see the knife hand...
In any case, there's no way of being moderately racist Lol. Any amount of racism sux ballz Lol. Really.
DeleteYou want soldiers? Don't discriminate against them. In war they all bleed red. Trust me. They do.
DeleteSorry friend, racism has been tried. A lot, and it just doesn't work. For nobody. Black and white. Red or yellow.
DeleteBtw, people don't die in a war for their color, unles they're 100% racists. But then, they wouldn't be dying for their country. At least not for a country in which other races have equal rights ;)
Deleteto be fair, racism has worked quite well for the whites... i suspect they are regretting the act of voluntarily giving it up... =)
DeleteNo it hasn't, why do you think they buy guns like mad? Lol
DeleteThey didn't give it up voluntarily at all... They fought wars to keep it, and lost each one Lol. From European colonial wars to the US civil war.
DeleteI think the racist question has been answered once and for all by the Nazis. A “little” racism (anti Semitism of a sort was always present in Europe), when allowed to be established in law and then the state itself, turns society into a blame/hate/kill machine. It’s evil, not just bad.
ReplyDeleteThe comments section in your most excellent blog has devolved into 4chan Hells :(
Deleteyes, too much racism is bad... is the answer really to try to remove all racism, from all civil discourse?
Deletetoo much nationalism is bad too, led to ww1, ww2, is the answer to remove all nationalism?
ask yourself this honestly... would Martin Luther King really approve of what the left is doing?... would the thousands of whites who gave their lives for the North approve of the left? ... what happened to freedom of speech?
i am signing out guys... wish you all the best.
Truly, from the bottom of my heart.
Chicken
MLK was far more to the left than today's almost non-existent left in the US. You want left? Elect Bernie Sanders and get real progressive change! Well, Congress would be another obstacle. Sorry to break it to you my friend, but there's hardly any "left" left in the US.
DeleteThere's no such thing as a little good religion in politics, racism or extreme nationalism. It's like mixing a little manure with ice cream, the manure stays the same. But the ice cream is ruined...
DeleteFreedom of speech is sacrosanct. Freedom of deed is very much another matter, however. Which leads to the most important maxim of all: Watch what I do, not what I say 😁
ReplyDeleteAKOC, stay and play please. Your comments are highly appreciated.