It Ain’t Over Until It’s Over

Markets are getting a chilly feeling down their spine these days.  Over-confident of humanity’s victory over the viral world, they are ridiculously over-extended to a degree never seen in history, when adjusted for risk. For share valuations to make any sense at all everything must go 100% right, and right away: COVID, inflation, geopolitical tensions, all must end, now!!

Professional money managers are always cautious under normal circumstances, carefully assessing the risk-reward balance. But they are not the ones driving the market now: it’s the very young, very clueless speculators who know nothing but momentum. And when upward momentum shifts, as it always does, what will happen? 

Pros will certainly not try to catch a falling knife, so no buying from there. Will the young and the clueless jump in? Some will see a drop as a buying opportunity and jump in - this is exactly what has been happening in the last 3-6 months, with varying degrees of success:  Equities were ok, but cryptos not.

I see cryptos as the leading indicator of market mania, the canary in the mine. And the canary is very much in trouble, if not quite dead - yet.