Sudden Debt

It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are difficult.

Sunday, November 23, 2025

The Ultimate Meme

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One chart best captures the AI meme stock nature of equity markets right now: SoftBank owns a considerable chunk of OpenAI equity, currently...
3 comments:
Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Bitcoin and S&P 500

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 In these frothy days I view cryptos and stocks as two sides of the same risk coin - pardon the pun.  I'm pretty sure that many risk-hun...
1 comment:
Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Market Rout? Really??

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 Yesterday S&P 500 fell a mere 0.92% - and yet the news today talk about a "market rout".  What does this mean to me?  That ...
Sunday, November 16, 2025

Treasury Basis Trade

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The US Treasury basis trade consists of buying a Treasury bond in the cash market and selling the underlying futures contract. The differenc...
7 comments:
Friday, November 14, 2025

The Pools of 1929

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 In the months before the Crash of 1929 the phenomenon of “bull pools” gained great popularity. A bunch of wealthy individuals would pool th...
Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Sociopolitical Risks

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 Following the Democratic sweep in yesterday’s elections, it is a good time to ponder socioeconomic risks facing the US and their likely imp...
2 comments:
Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Zero Day Options

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 According to CBOE data almost 60% of all SP500 option daily volume now comes from the most extremely speculative and leveraged instrument o...
1 comment:
Monday, October 20, 2025

Margin Debt Soars

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The amount of margin debt in the US has soared to a new high of $1.13 trillion in September (data: FINRA). Some will say that we should look...
Saturday, October 18, 2025

Leverage and Risk Transmission Mechanisms

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 The Great Debt Crisis of 2008-10 was the result of inordinate leverage created by arcane derivative instruments like debt tranches, Collate...
4 comments:
Friday, October 6, 2023

Bonds And Money

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The US bond market is getting hammered lately as investors and traders realize that (a) the economy is not collapsing and (b) the Fed will k...
6 comments:
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Hellasious
I was educated as a chemical engineer but spent almost my entire career in finance, particularly in money, FX and bond markets. The name stands for Hell-as-IOUs and the picture points to Quixotic endeavors.
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