Sudden Debt

It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are difficult.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Zero Day Options

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 According to CBOE data almost 60% of all SP500 option daily volume now comes from the most extremely speculative and leveraged instrument o...
1 comment:
Monday, October 20, 2025

Margin Debt Soars

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The amount of margin debt in the US has soared to a new high of $1.13 trillion in September (data: FINRA). Some will say that we should look...
Saturday, October 18, 2025

Leverage and Risk Transmission Mechanisms

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 The Great Debt Crisis of 2008-10 was the result of inordinate leverage created by arcane derivative instruments like debt tranches, Collate...
4 comments:
Friday, October 6, 2023

Bonds And Money

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The US bond market is getting hammered lately as investors and traders realize that (a) the economy is not collapsing and (b) the Fed will k...
9 comments:
Monday, August 28, 2023

Debt To GDP For The US - We Have A Winner!

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Note: Numbers on Debt/GDP below have been calculated using GDP on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis.  Also, I have removed countries suc...
7 comments:
Sunday, August 27, 2023

US Inflation And The Fed

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 The one certainty from Mr Powell’s Jackson Hole speech a couple days ago is this: The Fed remains firmly committed to its 2% inflation targ...
4 comments:
Friday, August 25, 2023

Charting Tealeaves

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 In my experience, charting as a market analysis tool is as useful as reading tealeaves.  But, occasionally it actually works, so when I hav...
Thursday, August 24, 2023

Maybe The Real Reason Bond Prices Are Dropping Is...

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 Analysts are somewhat baffled by the drop in bond prices.  Inflation is moderating and the Fed is sending "hold" messages. So wha...
Wednesday, August 23, 2023

The Trillion Dollar Question

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A one question post today: Given its enormous debt load and the spike in interest rates driving debt service closer to unsustainable levels,...
3 comments:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023

More Trouble Ahead From Bonds

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I don't think most people realize the massive losses that have been suffered by bond investors in the last year and a half - take a look...
2 comments:
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Hellasious
I was educated as a chemical engineer but spent almost my entire career in finance, particularly in money, FX and bond markets. The name stands for Hell-as-IOUs and the picture points to Quixotic endeavors.
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