Friday, March 9, 2007

The Rising Sun?

Today's Japanese machinery orders (for the month of January) showed an increase of 3.9% versus an expectation of 1.4%, signifying further capital spending increases ahead. After a decade of stagnation caused by overcapacity, more capital is finally being directed towards the country's aging manufacturing infrastructure.

Last quarter's GDP growth (4.8%) was the highest in three years and will likely be revised upwards to 5.1%. The low dollar-yen FX rate is encouraging exports not only to the US, but also to other rapidly growing economies whose currencies are pegged to the dollar like China and the Middle East oil exporters.

Two implications from a stronger Japan:

a) Household incomes will start to rise, creating an impetus to spend.
b) Higher interest rates, as BOJ moves away from what are super accomodative real rates.

The great gusher of cheap yen liquidity is looking more questionable all the time.

Another thought that pops into mind is this: if (or rather, when) the Chinese decide to revalue the yuan upwards, the very first beneficiary will be Japan's export-driven manufacturing sector.

Plus, this just came out from Bloomberg: China announced today that it will set up a separate government agency to actively manage its $1 trillion in reserves, modeled after Singapore's Temasek Holdings. What are the Chinese authorities telling us? No more simple recycling of dollars into Treasury bonds and mortgages. I think this is very important.

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