Here's an interesting recession predictor: every time the spread between 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the 30 year Treasury rises to around 250 bp (2.50%) a recession follows shortly thereafter (grey shaded periods on the chart below).
Given that 90% of all home mortgages are 30-year fixed, it makes sense... it's a sign of mortgage lenders pricing-in increased default risk, which naturally rises during a recession.
30 Year Fixed Mortgage Minus 30 Year Treasury (%)
Mortgage delinquency rates are still very low near 2%, but data are from 1Q22 and in any case delinquencies are a lagging indicator.
Mortgage Delinquency Rates
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