The World Is Shifting Left

 The world is shifting left/green politically. Here’s proof:

Item 1 - The German Elections 

Go past the headlines and yesterday’s German election results are crystal clear: the country’s voters are moving left of center, with significant gains for the Green Party in particular. Angela Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU had its worst showing since its founding right after WWII.

The shift becomes more obvious when we exclude the far right AfD and far left Die Linke parties and look at the results for the two blocks: conservative [CDU/CSU + FDP] versus progressive [SPD + Greens].  The table below tells the story. 

To a large degree the shift comes from young under-30 Germans who voted for the Greens en masse (around 32%) and completely spurned the conservatives (around 11%). Change is definitely in the wind in Europe’s largest economy. 

Item 2 - USA

Though European and American politics are very dissimilar (it’s like comparing American football with soccer,  the “real” football), things are on the move in the US, too.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez  and Bernie Sanders are enjoying tremendous, mainstream popularity. Like in Germany, they are particularly popular with young Americans.

 

They are now among the most popular mainstream American politicians, ranking #6 and #7. But if we exclude Carter, Obama and Schwarzenegger who are no longer active, they rise to #3 and #4.  When was the last time that left-leaning, progressive politicians were so popular in America? In FDR’s time, and his opponents called him a communist!

Item 3 - China

In case you haven’t noticed, China has recently shifted its socioeconomic policy, moving away from a winner-take-all free market capitalism to what Xi Jingping calls Common Prosperity. Notice the Common part, ie as opposed to the creation of individual billionaires.  The party has clearly shifted gears towards its ideological foundation (Marxism) as a tool for the creation of a large thriving middle class.

The signs are everywhere, from the dismantling of Evergrande’s empire (more are certainly coming) to stomping on Macau’s foreign-owned casinos. 

Bottom line: the world’s #1, #2 and #4 economies are shifting left. Their combined GDP is $44 trillion or 52% of the world’s total. Yes, I think we can safely say that the World is shifting left.