Thursday, April 5, 2007

China = 1.3 Billion
India = 1.0 Billion
Σ = Deep Trouble

The People's Bank of China (PBoC), the country's central bank, today raised bank reserve rates yet again by 0.5% - the sixth time in a row. Banks must now re-deposit 10.50% of their deposits with the PBoC instead of loaning all the money out. Loan growth is zooming, with M2 rising 17.8% in February. With the yuan effectively hard-pegged to the US dollar, monetary policy is becoming a weak tool to control inflation and growth rates - unless it becomes truly draconian.

The PBoC has a problem in its hands: it's called wild-eyed capitalism after decades of Maoism, state control-ism and creaky bicycles as worker productivity rewards. In other words, "how are you gonna keep 'em in the farm after they have seen Paree?" - and the Chinese are notoriously infamous traders, speculators and gamblers.

This will end in tears simply because of the Law of Very Large Ugly Numbers, as in 1.3 billion people wanting to own a car - or even a scooter. Did I hear you say "India"? As in another billion souls? Unless we import energy from a black hole and copper from Mars it can't be done.

So...here's the hard brick wall(s): The US numbers 300 million people and consumes 21 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd). China's consumption is 7 mbpd and India's 2.5 mbpd. See anything wrong with these numbers? How long can growth be sustained in China and India before we end up nuking each other for precious natural resources? Or cooking ourselves in greenhouse gases?

Here's a chart, just for laughs.

Oh, sure this can go on indefinitely....no worries at all.

11 comments:

  1. The simplest and most convincing explanation of peak oil ever. Great!

    Keep on blogging.

    ReplyDelete
  2. While I agree with your argument that we should be actively seeking alternative renewable energies for a myriad of reasons, I think this chart is rather misleading in that it is long term but not log based.

    Because it is not log based, the chart also does not adequately illustrate prior price fluctuations including the major runup in oil prices prior to 1920 and then the long downward price trend into the 1930s depression.

    Nor is it adjusted for inflation or a basket of other commodities like the CRB. This is critical in light of the recent massive monetary stimulation we have experienced over the last 4 years.

    All the chart shows is that at least recently relative to the supply of dollars the price of oil has increased.

    It says nothing about the potential future supply of oil, which as you know are based on a complex set of estimates re: reserves and recovery costs.

    To what degree the price of oil has been inflated by a shift to commodity based investment strategies as opposed to an increase in actual consumption of oil or lower future production levels is also an important consideration.

    However, I do agree that we need to adopt policies that will allow the US to move away from propping up monarchies in the middle east that then proceed to export jihad to the rest of the world. It would be far better if the US focused on sustainable economic growth and internal development rather than militarily enforced trading relationships.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear anonymous,

    Thank you vm for your comments. I did say the chart was for laughs! I am quite aware that linear (non-log) charts have limitations.

    However:

    1. Log charts show the rate of increase. But the "real" world works in absolute numbers, as the camel that collapses under that last piece of straw can readily testify.

    2. I am wary of inflation-adjusted crude oil prices. A very large percentage of inflation comes from energy prices as they work their way through the commodity/production/distribution channel. Energy IS different from all other goods and services. Still, I readily admit I have no satisfactory way to present "real" energy prices.

    3. I claim nothing about the future supply of oil. All I am saying is that 2.3 billion Chinese and Indians cannot ever hope to approach even a fraction of the living standards of the US (viz. energy use) and that their recent mega growth trends are unsustainable.

    4. Prices certainly have been influenced by futures market speculative froth, but in the end physical supply/demand matters the most. The spike is too uncomfortable a sign about current marginal conditions. Having said that, maybe Halliburton & Co. will be able to work with the govts. of Iraq and Iran to boost their production by 100%. Clearly that's where the "loose" oil is.

    But those 2.3 billion souls need much more than just a few more mbpd's.

    The limits to constant growth are clearly visible anywhere we look. From energy and resources, to global climate change and debt.

    We NEED a major slowdown to reassess our global socio-economic model. Even locusts eventually run out of food and die.

    ReplyDelete
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