Friday, April 20, 2007

Commercial Real Estate...Again

I will once again focus on commercial real estate and mortgages. While popular attention is currently focused on residential sub-prime and near-prime mortgages, commercial mortgages are also - ever so quietly - crumbling all around us.

The CMBX indexes produced by Markit track the default risk of securities constructed from commercial mortgages (CMBS). Just like the other indexes, CMBX has several tranches rated from BB to AAA. Here are some charts tracking their yield spreads (the higher the spread, the worse the performance).
  • The lowest, "junk" rated BB tranche has zoomed to 412 basis points (4.12%), up sharply from a "reasonable" 160 bp just six months ago.

CMBX-NA-BB 2
  • The BBB tranche (officially investment grade) has gone from 45 to 164 bp.
CMBX-NA-BBB 2

  • The A rated tranche is suffering badly, up from 12 to 60 bp.

CMBX-NA-A 2

  • But even the super-safe AA tranche is taking a beating, from 8.5 bp to 24 bp.
CMBX-NA-AA 2

Such CMBS securities are the second largest sector in structured finance, after residential mortgage bonds (RMBS). According to the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association, CMBS issuance in the US alone reached a record $207 billion in 2006. International issuance is growing too, bringing the total to $302 billion.

CMBS Issuance ($US Billion)

Although still relatively new in bond markets, CMBS's are a significant part ($770 billion) of the total $3 trillion in commercial US mortgages. For comparison, RMBS are at $6 trillion, US Government bonds at $4.9 trillion and corporate bonds at $3.2 trillion. No small change...

Commercial real estate includes multi-family residential and office, commercial, etc. buildings. Activity in this sector of the construction business is still quite strong, probably due to the longer lag time needed to obtain local permits and financing for such larger projects. For February 2007 vs. February 2006, total spending for non-residential construction was +13.6% vs. residential being -15%. For example, office construction was up 27%, lodging up 53%, healthcare up 15% and commercial buildings up 9.5%.

For the whole of 2006 vs. 2005 non-residential construction spending was +13.6% vs. residential at -1.8%. In dollar terms, 2006 residential construction spending was $639 billion and non-residential $558 billion - almost the same.

It is plain that non-residential construction business is just as important as home-building and therefore terms and conditions for commercial mortgage loans can impact the overall economy significantly. The recent run-up in the CMBX spreads is a bad omen for loan availability and cost and may soon translate into lower activity in a sector that has been healthy, until now. And that will be the point in time when total construction employment finally takes a significant hit (see two previous posts).

32 comments:

  1. Not sure if I read it here or another blog about the correlation of a 6 month lag between commercial and residential construction. And if I remember right the commercial end had a deeper pull back before turning up. My guess is that like you say there are many projects in the pipe line with big money behind them and you have to finish the full build out, can not just pull the plug. But that cycle was in a "normal" business cycle, this time with all the cards stacked so high and the amount of over build.......?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Great post.

    Right now, according to WSJ, only 10 million square feet of office space is being absorbed each quarter. The 77 million square feet of office space projected to come online this year should do wonders for the current 13.1% office vacancy rate. I wonder what will happen to that 27% office construction spending increase.

    Its also a good thing spending on construction lodging is up 55% since hotel room rates fell 2.3% last month.

    However, it shouldn't be a problem because, according to Fitch, no money down interest only loans are common in the commercial mortgage market.

    No contagion here. It will all surely stay contained in subprime residential.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks to both "Anon" and Alex for your inputs - I appreciate the data.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The yesterday jump looks very significant to me. What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  5. This may help to explain what's going on:

    http://tinyurl.com/2v3uoz
    http://tinyurl.com/39fmo3

    April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service, one of the two largest credit-rating firms, will require more protection for investors in securities backed by mortgages on apartment buildings, offices and other commercial properties because of ``a continued slide'' in lending standards.

    Surging delinquencies on subprime residential mortgages caused by looser lending practices are an ``elephant in the room'' that has called attention to standards on other loan types, Moody's said. As with home loans, commercial mortgages have been requiring less documentation and including the use of more interest-only loans and secondary financing, it said.

    ``This is a direct response to the slow but steady erosion in underwriting quality within the securitized commercial mortgage lending world,'' Jim Duca, a group managing director at Moody's in New York, said in the statement.

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