Once again, economic data was announced in such a way as to produce maximum cheer from the peanut gallery. Factory orders up 3.1% in March vs. February, when the "consensus" expectation was 2.0%. Riiiight... Of course, we had gotten an advance indication last week from the durable goods orders (also up "more" than expected), so the total manufactured goods number should have surprise no one.
Instead, look at the year-over-year comparisons for factory orders...Around August 2006 their rate of increase plunged and has been negative for every month so far in 2007 (Jan-Mar), i.e. fewer orders than the same time last year. This is in current dollars, too, so real figures are much worse.
Instead, look at the year-over-year comparisons for factory orders...Around August 2006 their rate of increase plunged and has been negative for every month so far in 2007 (Jan-Mar), i.e. fewer orders than the same time last year. This is in current dollars, too, so real figures are much worse.
What does Year-over-Year mean?
ReplyDeleteDoes it mean comparison of change, for example of June 07 vice june06, July 07 vice july 06 and so on?
wawawa,
ReplyDeleteYOY is as you said, change from prior year.
Regards
I am aghast at the mendacious tripe that gets trotted out (pardon the purple prose) from the MSM as if the latest data indicated a stengthening economy. Are there any financial reporters out there who know what the %$#! they are doing? Everyone in the financial business should know that for the purposes of trying to determine a trend, one compares a given month to the the same month of the prior year, not the previous month of the same year. Duh! Do the currency traders know what they are doing? I have to ask since the the dollar has been up four days in a row. Trading the hype, perhaps?
ReplyDeleteSo now the current "wisdom" seems to be,
"See the Fed doesn't need to lower after all. The eCONomy is strong! Party on dudes. "
'Splain?
ross:
ReplyDeleteI think problem is that very few people have "intellectual integrity".
Most of commentators are not "free thinkers" due to the fact that they have to follow institutions that they work for.
ross+wawawa,
ReplyDeletere: financial reporters
Murdoch wants to buy the WSJ.
Quick, someone clone Orwell to write another book.
Yes, I forgot about that little detail, Rupert=Darth V.
ReplyDeleteGood chart!
ReplyDelete