Sunday, May 6, 2007

Margin Debt and S&P

A chart pair for Sunday...

The NYSE reported that margin debt reached $293 billion at the end of March 2007, a tad below the all time high of $295 billion reached the month before. Since the cycle low of 1974, margin debt has increased a whopping 74 times, for an average compound annual rate of 14.1%.


US Margin Debt, Log Scale

In the same time S&P 500 has gone up 25 times, for a compound annual 10.4%.

S&P 500, Log Scale

One more observation: It is certain that margin debt reported by NYSE no longer provides an accurate picture of stockmarket leverage. Financial derivatives that create huge gearing are now so prevalent that the Fed's 50% margin rule (Reg. T) is essentially a dead letter.

Oh, and something else: it was reported in the latest BLS employment data that 14.400 jobs were lost during April from the "credit intermediation and related activities" financial sector. That's the biggest one month drop since such data started being collected in 1990. If I understand it properly, this is were all those mortgage broker jobs reside.

Credit Intermediation Jobs - Change from month before

5 comments:

  1. I asked my magic 8 ball if we were headed for a recession. It responded "All signs point to yes" And they do. But the stock market, the consumer and the economy are doing a levitation trick fueled by debt originated liquidity. I have watched Roubini struggle with the question of when for the last year. When the correction comes, it will really be hellacious.

    Jason B

    ReplyDelete
  2. The economy and markets are rarely in tune, short-term. One is a slowly evolving fundamental process and the other is an ephemeral psychological phenomenon swinging from fear to greed, passing successively through all gradations in between.

    I think that right now in the US and Europe we are very far removed from "fear" and are plateauing around "certainty" (a grade or two less than "greed"). In China we have pure, unalloyed "greed", as we also have in Brazil and possibly Australia.

    Those last two are tightly related to China because of the resource plays.

    Regards

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