I have posted various debt statistics before, but perhaps the single most troubling one is that of debt intensity of economic growth, i.e. how much additional debt is taken on to generate one more dollar of GDP (see chart below - click to enlarge).
US Debt Intensity of GDP Growth
It now takes roughly 5 dollars of new debt to generate 1 more dollar of GDP. In gross dollar terms, during 2006 total debt grew by $3.55 trillion whereas GDP grew by just $0.79 trillion. Notice how GDP growth in dollar terms has been stuck in the same place for 4 years running, whereas debt growth has moved steadily upwards.
Which begs the question: where does all this added debt go, since it does not get consumed or invested in plant and equipment (it would have shown up as GDP growth)? And what are the final consequences if this imbalance keeps going on? These are truly not easy questions, so I will leave them open for your comments...
P.S. There are no singular "correct" answers. There is the "easy" Ponzi answer, i.e. issuing more debt to pay interest on existing debt, but I think there are more elements at play here, particularly in the nature of the debt itself (e.g. financial vs. non-financial in origin).
Which begs the question: where does all this added debt go, since it does not get consumed or invested in plant and equipment (it would have shown up as GDP growth)? And what are the final consequences if this imbalance keeps going on? These are truly not easy questions, so I will leave them open for your comments...
P.S. There are no singular "correct" answers. There is the "easy" Ponzi answer, i.e. issuing more debt to pay interest on existing debt, but I think there are more elements at play here, particularly in the nature of the debt itself (e.g. financial vs. non-financial in origin).
The debt can be looked at as public and private. Private can be looked at as household and corporation. Public debt is going to entitlements, the war, among other things (like Ponzi debt service). Private household debt is going to living expenses and consumption of consumer goods and otherwise living beyond ones means, among other things (like Ponzi debt service). Private corporation debt is going to M&A, stock repurchase, and speculation.
ReplyDeletehellasious,
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of financial and consumer debt is double counted when mortgages and asset backed debt is securitized. For example, FNMA and GNMA backed bonds are considered financial debt.
I think a far more important statistic, revealing the true extent of debt accumulation in the US, is household debt as a percentage of annual disposable income. The most relevant statistic, however, is the record level of the financial obligations ratio (FOR) of 19.40, despite historically low interest rates.
The household debt service ratio (DSR)at 14.53 is an estimate of the ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income. Debt payments consist of the estimated required payments on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt.
The financial obligations ratio (FOR) adds automobile lease payments, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners' insurance, and property tax payments to the debt service ratio.
What will happen to the FOR as mortgage equity withdrawal is increasingly replaced by credit card debt?
The only way out of this dilemma, at least for the average American household, is a combination of both savings and wage gains. Since I don't foresee significant wage gains in the near future for most American workers the only viable alternative remaining is savings.
one aspect of Marx's theory of crises seems particularly applicable here:
ReplyDeleteAn (over) expansion of credit can enable the capitalist system to sell temporarily more goods than the sum of real incomes created in current production plus past savings could buy. Likewise, credit (over) expansion can enable them to invest temporarily more capital than really accumulated surplus-value (plus depreciation allowances and recovered value of raw materials) would have enabled them to invest (the first part of the formula refers to net investments; the second to gross investment).
But all this is only true temporarily. In the longer run, debts must be paid; and they are not automatically paid through the results of expanded output and income made possible by credit expansion. Hence the risk of a Krach, of a credit or banking crisis, adding fuel to the mass of explosives which cause the crisis of overproduction. (Ernest Mandel)
While not specifically stated, the solution to what has been a 'solution' should take debt deflation form and may be quite severe as not only overpriced financial but also overaccumlated physical capital undergoes liquidation.
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adorable allie -
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all ashlee -
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all over lexi -
all ruth -
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amateur galore -
amazing ty -
amber kelly -
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angelina virgin -
anna 19 -
ann angel -
annas assets -
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ashlee and serena -
ashley brookes -
asian suck dolls -
ass like whoa -
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aunt judys -
bad tushy -
beautiful bri -
beckys love -
bella spice -
big blowjob chicks -
big older women -
big wet butts -
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blazing vids -
blonde passions -
brandy jacobs -
brandys box -
bratty brittany -
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bums in action -
caged tushy -
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casey parker -
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dream of dani -
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durty girls -
easy teen sluts -
elite movie pass -
ember 19 -
emily 18 -
emilys world -
ericas fantasies -
eva luv -
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exotic kisses -
explicit art -
far east desires -
fiona luv -
first gay orgy -
fishnet models -
fruity babes -
fruity files -
fruity toys -
ftv girls -
full bush -
fun brunettes -
gia la shay -
girlfriend handjobs -
gotta love lucky -
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guys get fucked -
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hailee jordan -
hands on hardcore -
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hot braces -
hot legs and feet -
hot pool girls -
hot wife rio -
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janet plays -
jen 18 -
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jessica virgin -
jessie brooks -
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katrina 18 -
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kelly madison -
kendall blaze -
kimmie cream -
kira dreams -
kiss kristin -
kitty leigh -
kori kitten -
krissy love -
k scans -
kylies secret -
lainey moore -
lana brooke -
latin teen pass -
la zona modelos -
leia loves you -
lesbo mat -
lia 19 -
lick me girl -
little miss freckles -
lolly pop blowjobs -
love leialovely marilyn -
love your tits -
lunas cam -
luv alicia -
luv nikki -
maniac pass -
mariah spice -
marketa 4 you -
martina dreams -
matts models -
meat my ass -
megan michaels -
megan qt -
mega summers -
melissa midwest -
meredith 18 -
met art -
miami voyeur -
milfs on sticks -
molly meadows -
monster movie pass -
my pov bj -
my wife ashley -
nadia virgin -
naomi model -
nasty 19 -
natalie 18 -
natalie sparks -
naughty alysha -
naughty at home -
naughty belle -
naughty chrissy -
naughty dom -
naughty faith -
naughty girls zips -
naughty starri -
nebraska coeds -
next door nikki -
nina virgin -
no limit vids -
nubiles -
oc girls -
office gals -
older women -
only blowjob -
only tease -
only teen blowjobs -
open up girls -
pacinos world -
panty girl upskirts -
parkers panties -
paul markham teens -
peachez 18 -
phil flash -
pictures of dudes -
piper dreams -
play with paris -
plunder bunnies -
poolside giovanni -
poolside kelly -
porn fidelity -
porn flux -
princess blueyez -
pure dee -
rare asian -
rare asians -
real 8 teens -
real pantyhose teens -
rebecca love -
rock star pixies -
sapphic angels -
sara cutie -
sarah dreaming -
savanna virgin -
seanna teen -
selena luv -
selena spice -
serenity love -
sexxxy celeste -
sexy sindy -
sexy teen ella -
sexy teen sandy -
shabby virgins -
shana dreams -
shanes world -
share my cock -
sharing paris -
she got knocked up -
shelby virgin -
shy black teens -
sierra love -
simon scans -
sky modeling -
sleeping tushy -
slutty gal pals -
smokin hottie -
southern brooke -
southern kalee -
spice twins -
spoiled virgins -
spring break fantasy -
spunk bunnies -
spunky zips -
stacey online -
starla rocks -
stockings angels -
straight guys voyeur -
strapon lesbians -
strapon service -
stuffed petite -
stunning misty -
stunning serena -
suki model -
summer banks -
summer party time -
suzy stevens -
sweet adri -
sweet apples -
sweet danni -
sweet kacey -
sweet kara -
sweet krissy -
sweet leah luv -
sweet models -
sweet n soft -
sweet russian girls -
sweet vids -
tailynn -
taras cam -
taryn thomas -
taste of uk -
teenage depot -
teen charms -
teen kara -
teen stars magazine -
tere 19 -
throated -
tiffany teen -
tiny gwen -
total super cuties -
toy desire -
toy stuffers -
trailer park tiffany -
trinitys toybox -
trista stevens -
trixie storm -
tushy lickers -
tushy massage -
tushy school -
twinks -
uk porn sluts -
vicky vane -
victoria holyns -
victoria pink -
view pornstars -
vika dreams -
virtual bjs -
watch 4 beauty -
wet tshirt -
why be dressed -
wild young honeys -
wow wendy -
x crib -
x gape -
x lez -
x movies -
you love lucy -
young and banged -
young cum gulpers -
young models casting -
zexy teens -
squirt hunter -
1by day -
18 virgin sex -
702 daisy -
1000 facials -
abigail 18 -
abrianna -
action girls -
adorable allie -
alexa model -
alexis virgin -
alicia rhodes -
all ashlee -
allison virgin -
all over lexi -
all ruth -
amateur facials -
amateur galore -
amazing ty -
amber kelly -
amy amy amy -
amy virgin -
angelina virgin -
anna 19 -
ann angel -
annas assets -
anna virgin -
ashlee and serena -
ashley brookes -
asian suck dolls -
ass like whoa -
ass terdam -
aubrey addams -
aunt judys -
bad tushy -
beautiful bri -
beckys love -
bella spice -
big blowjob chicks -
big older women -
big wet butts -
bikini voyeur -
blazing vids -
blonde passions -
brandy jacobs -
brandys box -
bratty brittany -
britney virgin -
brutal dildos -
bums in action -
caged tushy -
cam girls planet -
candi malone -
casey parker -
caseys cam -
cassandra calogera -
cassie leanne -
cheaper than agf -
cherry jul -
cherry spot -
claudia nichols -
club cherries -
college town cuties -
cory heart -
country cutie -
courtney virgin -
creampied sweeties -
creampie thais -
cum 101 -
cum academy -
cute anne -
cute chloe -
cute lisa -
cutie pie teens -
cynthia sin -
danni virgin -
danya licious -
ddf busty -
diddy and serena -
diddy licious -
digital angel girls -
dirty home vids -
doctor tushy -
dollie deathray -
doms delight -
do my wife slut -
dream of dani -
drilled mouths -
durty girls -
easy teen sluts -
elite movie pass -
ember 19 -
emily 18 -
emilys world -
ericas fantasies -
eva luv -
eva virgin -
exotic kisses -
explicit art -
far east desires -
fiona luv -
first gay orgy -
fishnet models -
fruity babes -
fruity files -
fruity toys -
ftv girls -
full bush -
fun brunettes -
gia la shay -
girlfriend handjobs -
gotta love lucky -
guys caught wanking -
guys get fucked -
gypsy kay -
hailee jordan -
hands on hardcore -
hardcore saints -
hot braces -
hot legs and feet -
hot pool girls -
hot wife rio -
i cum alone -
i heart eden -
jacy andrews -
janet plays -
jen 18 -
jennas wish -
jenna virgin -
jenni carmichael -
jessica virgin -
jessie brooks -
jody love -
joi ryda -
just teen site -
kandis clubhouse -
karas handfull -
karen and amy -
karen dreams -
karen loves kate -
karen palms -
kari sweets -
karla spice -
kates playground -
kathy ash -
katrina 18 -
kaylas clubhouse -
kelly madison -
kendall blaze -
kimmie cream -
kira dreams -
kiss kristin -
kitty leigh -
kori kitten -
krissy love -
k scans -
kylies secret -
lainey moore -
lana brooke -
latin teen pass -
la zona modelos -
leia loves you -
lesbo mat -
lia 19 -
lick me girl -
little miss freckles -
lolly pop blowjobs -
love leialovely marilyn -
love your tits -
lunas cam -
luv alicia -
luv nikki -
maniac pass -
mariah spice -
marketa 4 you -
martina dreams -
matts models -
meat my ass -
megan michaels -