Friday, June 15, 2007

Inflation Is Dead...

...but it depends on who's counting and what is being counted.

"Core" inflation for May came in "lower than expected" and markets cheered. But regular inflation, the one that includes such trivial items like food and fuel, came in higher than expected and, indeed, matched the highest one month rise in at least 15 years (+0.7%), with the exception of one month in 2005 when fuel prices soared after hurricane Katrina.


I think the usefulness of "core" data has reached its limit. The items being left out are essential and the higher prices are hitting middle-class household budgets the hardest.

Some calculate the difference between core and headline inflation and assume that corporate profit margins are getting squeezed. If this was my daddy's BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) I would agree without a second thought. But the way CPI is calculated these days has made any serious comparisons a Kafkaesque experience. Take hedonic pricing, for example:

Is olive oil for your salad getting too expensive? The government statisticians say that you, the educated consumer, will immediately switch to cheaper vegetable oil - no matter that it makes your salad taste like greasy chopped cardboard. And if greens for your salad get too expensive, too, how about bean salad, instead? You could produce your own methane gas and save on fuel (note to BLS: if bean prices rise, make sure to cut natural gas price indexes to balance).

I actually have a personal experience to relate on this matter: I was shopping for a vacuum cleaner a couple of months ago and I stupidly ended up buying one with a reputable brand on it (once famous for making sewing machines) for what seemed like an absolutely bargain-basement price: $35. Made in China, of course. Well, it worked for exactly three times and then the cheap-o shell wouldn't close properly after changing the bag, the vacuum escaped and the best it could manage was to suck up chicken feathers. Slowly.

I went back to the store and this time I chose a real machine made in Germany for 8 times the going price of the worthless p-o-s (which I am giving away for free, but no takers). The story does not end here: as I was walking to the cashier with my new vacuum, I noticed a young man carrying the exact same p-o-s I had bought two months ago and a saleslady trying to talk him out of it (she didn't exactly say it was garbage, but damn near in salesperson talk). "You really don't want to buy that", I chimed in. "I am not trying to be a busybody, but look: I bought the same vacuum as you a month ago and here I am again... see what I am carrying?"

The young man was quickly convinced to buy something else, but I bet the BLS is not so discriminating. If I am wrong on the bet, the prize is a vacuum cleaner - like new and entirely useless at any price.

11 comments:

  1. Why do you have chicken feathers in your house?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Always a worthwhile read senor. And now this:

    http://www.californiahousingforecast.com/commentary/severe-recession.html

    ReplyDelete
  3. You made my day

    "But the way CPI is calculated these days has made any serious comparisons a Kafkaesque experience. "

    I nod and chuckle morosely.

    "Kafka's works – including the stories Das Urteil (1913, "The Judgement"), In der Strafkolonie (1920, "In the Penal Colony"); the novella Die Verwandlung ("The Metamorphosis"); and unfinished novels Der Prozess ("The Trial") and Das Schloß ("The Castle") – have come to embody the blend of absurd, surreal and mundane which gave rise to the adjective "kafkaesque"."

    ReplyDelete
  4. I am with the chicken feathers crowd. Inquiring minds want to know.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I had to laugh at your post.

    I would MUCH rather buy items of quality - they last longer and cost less in the long run. Some things, you just cannot skimp on. Other things, well, you just have to decide if you can stomach that greasy imitation salad dressing.

    There are other things that you may have to cut out just to get what you want, but that is the nature of the beast...

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hellacious,

    I hope you are well and that your not posting recently is an indication that you are on vacation.

    Be well,

    Tim

    ReplyDelete
  7. Maybe his abscene has to do with the chicken feathers...

    ReplyDelete
  8. dude, come back. Sorry about the chicken feathers remark, I was just kidding.

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