Wednesday, July 18, 2007

AAA CDO's and Other Myths

(Special Intra-Day Post)

As trouble in the mortgage-backed securities market is deepening, the effects are suddenly widening out to the supposedly rock-solid A to AAA tranches. Readers who have been following this blog for a while are fully aware that the problems lie exactly with the tranche structure and the assumptions made to turn junk obligations into a AAA bonds. As they say, the truth always outs.. we should probably stop calling them CDO's and choose GIGO, instead (garbage in, garbage out).

Here are three eye-popping ABX charts from Markit, following the various tranches' CDS's.

First, the AAA tranche:
Next is the AA tranche:
And, finally, the A tranche:
Obviously the market is not waiting for the rating agencies to downgrade the referenced bonds from CDO to GIGO - it is doing it all by itself and in a huge hurry. Who was it that said the sub-prime problem is contained and will not affect other segments? Well, the market, that final arbiter of fact from fiction, is very clearly telling all concerned to quit fooling around with mythology and sauve qui peut.

And for what must be the Nth time, I will repeat: the next trouble spot will be on the "regular" CDS market connected with corporate bonds, which in turn is joined to the stockmarket and linked to the yen carry. And did you know that at least 60% of all CDS's are held or sold by hedge funds?

9 comments:

  1. Ok, Hellasious:

    what will be the ultimate cost/consequences of all of these garbage debts? What is going to happen as a result of all of this?

    Please explain in layman's language. Thanks,

    By the way, you have a good blog.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear wawawa,

    Thanks for your kind words abt. my blog.

    In layman's language:

    Portfolio investments (stocks and bonds, derivatives) and securitized assets like real estate are in for a long period of weakness. There is so much debt holding up their prices that, as the debt load becomes unbearable, they will have to be sold to repay some of the loans.

    By the way, some get fooled by talk of "liquidity" pumping up prices: liquidity is just another name for high debt. What commentators should be saying instead is this:

    "Asset prices are being pumped up as more and more debt is being piled on top of already high debt to buy these assets".

    That doesn't sound as good, however. The word "liquidity" has this rich, Daddy Warbucks feeling to it. Debt, on the other hand, is associated with bankruptcy and prison.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thank you for writing a very lucid piece on a very complex subject. But there is one thing I don't understand.

    Your premise seems to be that the counterparty risk in CDS is borne by whatever investor happens to be on the other side of the trade. This is the same as in, for example, futures and options markets. But in those markets, there is a third-party counterparty risk guarantor or referee. For example, the FTC is not going to let one greasy spoon futures trader just walk away from obligations to fulfill a contract. Is there no such guarantor/referee in CDS? If so, yeah, big problems.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hellasious...

    You hit the nail on the head here...How much longer until this reveals itself?...The largest cluster of Hindenburg Omens since September of 1987 has occurred in the last month...IMO..
    ___________________________________
    By the way, some get fooled by talk of "liquidity" pumping up prices: liquidity is just another name for high debt. What commentators should be saying instead is this:

    "Asset prices are being pumped up as more and more debt is being piled on top of already high debt to buy these assets".

    That doesn't sound as good, however. The word "liquidity" has this rich, Daddy Warbucks feeling to it. Debt, on the other hand, is associated with bankruptcy and prison.

    ReplyDelete
  5. The CDS market is completely OTC.

    There is no third party in between to guarantee performance of the contract.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
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