Friday, July 13, 2007

Purity In Charting

For those pure chartists amongst you (I am not, but frequently a picture is worth a lot more than babble), here is one to ponder: $TNX, the yield of 10-year Treasurys (click to enlarge). I have marked a couple of patterns that chartists will immediately recognize:
  1. An inverted head and shoulders that has already broken conclusively on the upside.
  2. A flag, trend- continuation, pattern.
The first "reads" to a yield of 5.40% (essentially already reached) and the second to 5.90%-6.0%.

OK, some more fun with this chart, from a longer perspective (click to enlarge).

Another couple of patterns being formed here, both of which are on the "cusp" of resolution, but have not yet confirmed:
  1. Another inverted H&S - reads to 8%
  2. A down trendline penetration - reads to 8.50%
It all boils down to this, IF you are a pure chartist: both short and long-term chart patterns are coming together to form a powerful technical picture, arguing for significantly higher long rates.

I'll shut up now and let the pictures talk.... OK, I can't resist just one comment: with all this debt sloshing around, money has got to get expensive at some point.

9 comments:

  1. "all this debt sloshing around, money has got to get expensive at some point."
    Why does it have to get expensive? I mean couldn't the Yen Carry Trade go on for another 100 years? I realise that this is not sound fiscal policy, but rates going up to 8+% will create havoc in housing, commodities and the stock market and probably put us in a multi year depression. Nobody (OK, at least most folks) wants that.
    Today we have fools with borrowed money engaging in Vegas style gambling and call it "investing". Looking at the price of housing, health care and energy we have inflation between 5-10%. Not good, but I still don't see why it has to end. Do You?

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Not good, but I still don't see why it has to end."

    Please see yesterday's graph.

    ReplyDelete
  3. If the cost of money is going to go waaay up, there must be reasons. I can think of quite a few, some are a tad exotic, like the Yen trade going poof, which will have all sorts of knock on effects. And what might cause the YC to go poof? Glad I asked.

    See the following:

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1865460/posts

    But what is at the link, namely Iran asking to be paid in Yen, not U.S. dollars, is just the tip of the iceberg. Rates are going much higher because they will need to to attract capital. And they will need to because the PTB are going to print money like they've never printed it before.

    We are probably just about to enter the teeth of what Mises called the crack up boom. I suspect the stock market's recent melt up may be the beginning of is adjustment to the fantastic realities of the crack up boom. We'll know soon enough. If indeed the crack up boom is in play,
    precious metals and pretty much any commodity will be about to launch in spectacular fashion. Once again, we will find out relatively soon.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Boy, I hate when I have typos. Allow me to say this again correctly.

    I suspect the stock market's recent melt up may be the beginning of its adjustment to the fantastic realities of the crack up boom.

    ReplyDelete
  5. anonymous1,

    perhaps think of it this was - modern money creation is credit and with this also an accumulating quantity of debt that at some 'point' can no longer be maintained via further credit creation, especially as the debt side progressively becomes a drag on productive economic activity.
    That is, the claims require servicing and there are limits to this as quantity modifies quality...

    Same time, quite dramatic changes/advances in the creation of structured financial products have permitted a displacing, really pretending away, of risk...which has a tendency to reappear and not always at most opportune times.

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