Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Houses As Places To Live In

What a shocking idea, eh? Imagine that... Houses simply being structures that house families, instead of assets that may be sold for immediate gains, or cash cows that can be milked indefinitely. There is a logically simple way to estimate the fundamental demand for housing: all other things equal, the more people that are around the more housing is needed. let's examine this correlation...

First a chart of annual new housing completions (click to enlarge), i.e. how many new houses were actually being built per year. This is probably the most striking housing "bubble" chart that I have seen: since 1970, previous housing booms lasted just 4 years, trough to peak. However, the last one started in 1992 and went on for a full 14 years.

This means that there have been a heck of a lot of new houses built in this 14-year uninterrupted boom phase, many times more than any other cycle. Comparing the number of new houses with the increase in population is revealing. Following is a chart for the 1992-2006 period comparing how many houses were built every year to the annual increase in population. More and more new houses were being built, even as fewer people were added to the population.

For the 14 year period, there were a total 23.1 million housing units built, while population increased by 46.4 million people - one new housing unit built for every 2 additional people. The chart below shows the progression of this ratio during the boom phase. At the end of the bubble, there was an incredible one new house being completed for every 1.5 new persons! And remember, this was not something that happened over a short 4-year boom, but went on for a full 14 years.


Bottom line? There were A LOT of houses built, outstripping by far the "natural" demand that arose from population increases. The current glut in housing was a long time in the making and will take a long time to go away, certainly more than 2-3 years. This is quite simply just the beginning of the bust cycle: assuming it bottoms out at the previous ratio of 3 new people per 1 new house, it would result in 960.000 housing completions per year. To give you an idea of where we are right now, last month (August) completions were running at 1,523,000 per year and starts at 1,331,000 per year.

I think we have a very long way to go. I wouldn't want to be near a mortgage-related investment, no matter if it is prime, AAA, backed by an agency or Mammon himself.

22 comments:

  1. If a large number of these new constructions is not generating income (i.e. rent), then eventually it may show up as non-performing loans in banks, CDOs, etc.

    PS. I love your blog. You bring up timely, relevant, and unique points. Keep it up.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The percentage of vacant houses for sale only (i.e. not for rent)is also at an all time high.

    Thks for your kind remarks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ..., outstripping by far the "natural" demand that arose from population increases.

    IMO the more appropriate statistic to use is household formation (rather than raw population increase) -- I believe this data is also available. One would expect the conclusion to be even more emphatic. Especially so when you start getting into affordability.

    I do not doubt that too many houses were built. The proximate reason for this was, of course, the rapid price appreciation, which created demand from 'flippers' and other owner non-occupiers.

    And, believe it or not, even this far into the housing bust this summer's snapshot data shows, when projected annually, builders are starting way more single family homes than are being sold (and sales numbers are declining rapidly). But that's what builders do -- they build. If they didn't, they'd go out of business I guess. Which may yet happen to some of them.

    But the market will most probably finish up today. Which is a cause for jubilation. For all of those readers not feeling too jubilant, please note this. As we all know, if the markets go down, well, then there is something wrong; markets must always go up. Consult your favorite popular (i.e. tabloid) financial news outlook to see this confirmed. And open a brokerage account via one of the display ads, if you are so inclined. Or just want to encourage their find coverage.

    eh

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hellasious,

    I bought my home in 1972 and have not jokingly said that it has a large tap root under it, meaning that it would be very hard to pick up and leave it.

    I have seen the "value" of my home appreciate very nicely, thank you, over the decades, probably peaking about a year ago.

    Someone commented to me that I missed an opportunity to sell it at the "peak" and I responded that "it's my home, not a commodity, not just a house."

    (Anyway, I still, in my mind see the dollar value of my home as the same as when I bought it in 1972. All the monetary "appreciation" seems just like so much funny money for a variety of reasons. One of which is that if the really tanks out BIG, really BIG time, then my net worth, in my mind hasn't changed all that much - it works for me.)

    P.S. I'm a long time reader of your blog - all the way back to your first entries on the value of the can of sardines. Keep it coming. BTW, would you like to do an update post on those sardines?

    Be well,

    Tim

    ReplyDelete
  5. Singles, especially b boomers are buying houses—this might help demand in the lower ranges. How much of the new stock are condos? I think the pain will come when boomers want to downsize and sale their 3 bathroom 6 bedroom houses—to whom? Now that the wealth glamour has worn off from housing, I’m hearing from boomers about the headache and cost of a owning a larger house.

    ReplyDelete
  6. How about the swarm of illegals entering the U.S. How does that skew your population data?...

    ReplyDelete
  7. The population data comes from the Census Bureau. I believe they have ways of estimating and adding in the undocumented population.

    ReplyDelete
  8. How about the swarm of illegals entering the U.S. How does that skew your population data?...

    Even if you doubled the highest figures of illegal immigration, it wouldn't come close to taking up the huge amount of slack in the housing market.

    That being said, I think this really is a case where "location, location, location" matters.

    ReplyDelete
  9. eyeballing the graph, it looks like 1.5M homes per year is the long term average and further eyeballing reveals that from 1999 to 2006 about 1.7M extra units were built. Therefore, about 1.1M units would have to be built for 4 years to get back to long-term average. That seems about right. As far as the impact of illegals, I work for a developer in southern california. Through competitve shopping I have learned that Mexican families are getting together to buy houses in a significant number. Generally, one member of the family who is legal goes on the deed and numerous illegal members of the extended family put down extensive cash to purchase the house. This is a significant factor keeping the market viable in the high desert.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Your data suggests that the rate of house construction will drop rather dramatically, and I agree.

    However, the number of mortgages generated will probably remain significantly higher than construction since we are a mobile population. Isn't the average ownership time only about 7 years?

    Most will need a new mortgage to go along with their new job in a different city. I doubt we will become a nation of renters as a result of this change in the methods of raising money to finance mortgages.

    Mortgages will continue (at a slower pace) as we gradually work off the huge overhang of existing houses.

    ReplyDelete
  11. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  12. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  13. When I closed on my house a few months ago, someone commented at the closing table about my "investment." My reply was "a house is something to live in, not an investment." The seller's agent said, "I wish more people would see it that way."

    With that said...

    Your data doesn't take into account such things as the shrinking size of the average household and the amount of old housing stock that reached the end of its useful life. In addition, there has been a population shift from the industrial areas in the north to warmer climates in the south and west. Yes, that leaves vacant homes in the "rust belt" but it also makes for demand for new houses in places like Atlanta, Dallas, Orlando, Houston, and Phoenix. So your statistics are not as gloom and doom as you're trying to make them.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Re: population dynamics

    No question, there are many dynamics at play that shape the housing market.

    However, they occur slowly: for example the average household size that you refer to was 2.62 in 1992 and today it is 2.61 (Census Bureau data).

    As for older homes, it is always a factor throughout the cycle, i.e. the effect effectively cancels out.

    Of more interest is the population's geographic shift. Indeed, the bubble occurred mostly on the Coasts as the Mid-West started a Long Recession in the 1980s which is still going on. The manufacturing center of the US is continuously being hollowed out.

    The effects on middle class income has been horrendous - in real terms stuck for decades - as high value added jobs in factories were replace with so-called service jobs.

    That's NOT good for housing ultimately, because people just borrowed more heavily to maintain their spending/purchasing ability.

    Thank you for your comments

    ReplyDelete
  15. Does this analysis consider the number of houses torn down each year?

    Unfortunately most houses in the U.S. are built with inferior materials (wood, saphalt shingles as opposed to aerated autoclaved concrete with aluminum or tile roofs) and have a typical life of 50 years before maintenance costs become prohibitive.

    Also, as others have commented, geographical shifts in the job marked have left areas with declining population (Detroit) and areas with in migration, such as the sun belt.

    ReplyDelete
  16. It would be a better analysis if you included in the ratio the drop (or rise) in the number of persons per household over that time.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I absolutely agree with you. Where I live the town is surrounded by acres and acres of empty land, parts of it being rezoned residential every day. They're building houses all the time here. So do the math. Scarcity makes prices rise, not oversupply with infinite opportunity to keep oversupplying. I figured out a long time ago that where I live a house is a roof over your head. Period.

    ReplyDelete
  18. 'New People' -- that made me laugh.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Another STRONG consideration to take into account is the cost of homes vs. income. Cost has exceeded the natural balance with income for several years due to investor, spec. demand and the unnatural ability to borrow more than one could afford because of interest only,no doc. etc.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Another excellent post. I am glad I found this blog and have added it to my daily reading. Here in ground zero, otherwise known as South Florida, the situation gas gone from euphoria to denial to anger. Next stop panic, then acceptance. IMHO we have another 20-30% to go in price reductions before we reach some sort of "bottom."

    ReplyDelete
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