Monday, October 1, 2007

Household Debt and GDP Growth

We know that GDP growth relies almost entirely (over 75%) on consumer spending. We also know that starting in 2000 consumers went on a borrowing binge to purchase homes and other items, thus boosting the economy through debt. In the next three charts I will compare the growth of such household debt to the growth of GDP.

The first chart shows the annual rates of nominal GDP growth and household debt (mortgage plus consumer debt) for each year - click to enlarge. The disparity between the two becomes very wide after 2000 - debt grew much faster than GDP. The last two bars - showing a clear deceleration - are for the first half of 2007.

Data: Federal Reserve

The second chart shows the difference between the growth rates, i.e. how much more debt grew than GDP, in percentage terms. From 1975 to 2000, household debt grew on average 1.9% faster than GDP, but from 2000 onwards the difference rose as high as 7.3% and averaged 5.1%. Again, there is a clear slowdown in the first half of 2007 (last bar).


The third chart shows the RATIO of debt growth to GDP growth, to better examine their relationship independent of absolute values. Whereas until 2000 household debt grew somewhat faster than GDP (the average ratio of debt growth to GDP growth was 1.3), afterwards the ratio zoomed as high as 3.5 and is still quite high, though tapering off.


Conclusion: Our economic growth during the past few years was almost entirely a result of households consuming by going deeper into debt. It's not like we didn't know this already, of course, but a picture is worth a thousand words.

What does this mean for the future? As household credit becomes tighter - as is already happening - the economy will slow down fast, unless it disengages from consumer spending even faster and starts growing more in manufacturing, exports and capital investment.

38 comments:

  1. Any opinion on the asian mkt?

    The stock mkt is shooting through the roof in Asia.

    But since asian economies are mostly export based, won't the economic conditions in USA affect the asian mkt?

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Asian markets are in full-blown speculative bubble mode - I am referring to the Chinese markets, mostly. Just look at the madness of crowds...

    Fundamentals don't stand a chance when greed takes over.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Does the USA still have the manufacturing industries, which could take over when the customers cannot take any additional loans?

    It is a while since I saw any "made in the USA" products here in Finland.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hellasious,

    Does government spending, specifically the expense of the mistake, eh, "war" go into the GDP?

    Tim

    ReplyDelete
  5. nothing to say against the chart but to be more precise one has to look on a net asset basis (assets minus liabilities). Picture is then a bit different but does not solve the problem (asset prices, ie property is going down now)
    Miju

    ReplyDelete
  6. Mane,

    There is very little made in the US these days...planes? - even there Boeing is subcontracting engineering design work out to Russia and India. I think the view that "high-end work stays in the US, cheap mfg. goes elsewhere" is a myth.

    As I said in a comment two days ago, the single sector that created most new jobs between 2004-now (1 million out of a total 7 million) was bars and restaurants! Another 1.4 million were created in private healthcare: outpatient, nursing homes, hospitals, etc. Retail and wholesale +900.000...Construction +800.000...

    Manufacturing LOST 300.000 jobs.

    Not a good sign.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Simplytim,

    Govt. spending most definitely DOES get included into GDP, mistake or not.

    ReplyDelete
  8. miju,

    Asset appreciation is not GDP.

    For example: you bought a house 10 years ago for X and it is now worth 3X. This has no impact on GDP until you borrow against it and spend the money.

    It is VERY dangerous to focus on the Asset/Liability ratio, particularly when debt is rising fast while incomes do not.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hellasious :
    I agree, no impact on GDP, but it is nevertheless better to have bigger assets than liabilities (rather the opposite) as it means that you can redeem you liabilites by selling some assets, especially if you do not have sound cash flow to pay the debt cost (interest plus amort). And the consequence of that is an asset deflation

    ReplyDelete
  10. To complete the picture some data or a chart about wage/personal income growth -- or relative lack of it -- would be a good addition, because I believe it has lagged, making the accumulation of debt, or rather the likelihood of increasing difficulties servicing (not to mention increasing) it, more dramatic.

    eh

    ReplyDelete
  11. anonymous :
    financial charges as a % of disposable income are near the record (about 18 %, end 06 was 18.2 %). for the moment personal income growth is still ok at about + 5 % in real terms yoy. that is why everybody is watching the employment statistics (less employment = less income = less ability to pay financial charges = less consumption = less economic growth = less CAPEX and less employement...)
    Miju

    ReplyDelete
  12. Mane,

    Retooling the US for exports would be painful, but it could be done.

    The US still has a lead in chips, software, drugs, and healthcare. Our infrastructure isn't bad, our work force is literate, and the regulatory environment is benign. Contrary to popular belief, there are still a lot of smart people here and it's still a nice place to live.

    The real road-blocks would be upper management in the US who have been trained mostly to "manage the street". It would take a long time to replace them with operational CEOs.

    And, in a real pinch there are certainly a lot of countries that wouldn't mind buying military goods. I'm sure there would be a rush to re-arm if the US scaled back its presence in Asia.

    The real question is who has the unencumbered income to displace the American consumer?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Woh DJI is going to break thru 14k pt again!

    Why is there only doom and gloom here?

    ReplyDelete
  14. why is there "doom and gloom" while DJIA going over 14.000?...

    Maybe because 10% of the US population own 85% of stocks (directly OR indirectly) and the other 90% are not the least bit affected by DJIA breaking 14.000?

    However, as the price of basic foodstuffs and energy goes much higher, that affects the "bottom" 90% MUCH more than the top 10%. They can't defray the higher living costs from portfolio income.

    So they go into debt...terrible fiscal policy, don't you think?

    ReplyDelete
  15. The fed has now managed to gurantee an even more spectacular decline than in august.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thanks for running this blog Hellasious. I remember your posts from TOD and always thought you knew what you were talking about. We were discussing this at TOD back in early 2006 if memory serves.

    I edit TOD:Canada these days if you'd ever like to do a guest post. We cover finance quite prominently twice a week, and substantive articles end up on the front page as well. For instance, I wrote this one about a month ago:

    The Resurgence of Risk – A Primer on the Developing Credit Crunch

    (http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/2871)

    ReplyDelete
  17. "Maybe because 10% of the US population own 85% of stocks (directly OR indirectly) and the other 90% are not the least bit affected by DJIA breaking 14.000?

    However, as the price of basic foodstuffs and energy goes much higher, that affects the "bottom" 90% MUCH more than the top 10%. They can't defray the higher living costs from portfolio income.

    So they go into debt...terrible fiscal policy, don't you think?"

    Hey at least a financial crisis is averted. If wall street crash all of ppl from the banking sector will lose their job too!

    ReplyDelete
  18. re: TOD postings

    Certainly I remember. My positive experience there provided an impetus to run my own blog, so as not to "hog" TOD's comments section with mostly financial topics.

    I will be very happy to contribute to TOD, as and when I come up with energy-related topics. Which should not be very tough, since energy is "everything". I also have a chem eng background which helps things - plus I did a thesis on synthetic fuels...way back when..

    I will be in touch - and thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  19. TOD:C covers energy, finance and environment, tying them together when possible, but also running pieces exclusively on one or the other. Finance has been very prominent in what we've done recently for obvious reasons - the impact of the looming credit crunch will be huge and soon.

    We've been covering the Northern Rock bank run in the UK, the ABCP crisis in Canada as well as the ARM resetting in the US and other manifestations of the unravelling in our Round-Ups (where we've linked to some of your very perceptive pieces).

    Articles on purely financial issues are not at all out of place at TOD:C, and TOD:Main runs some things as well. Basically a massive deflation and derivatives meltdown is hardly something anyone could be unaffected by. TOD says its focus is 'energy and our future' and the consequences that will flow from this are a huge part of our future.

    If you'd like to chat about doing anything for TOD at any point, then you can reach me at Stoneleigh(at)theoildrum(dot)com.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Re Miju's comment on incomes: My impression is that the monthly statistics often report good income growth, but the less frequent Census reports on income are pretty grim. Am I wrong, or is their such a disconnect?

    ReplyDelete
  21. I would be curious to see a chart the breaks down the rise in household debt/HELOC's. From what I have read, from 2001-2006 the US used real estate as a virtual ATM machine, cashing out billions and billions of "equity" cash. The sad part is from what I recall, none of that money was actually saved. Most of it went to Hummers, boats, Harley's, and that "investment" property in Florida. I remember seeing a story a few months back where the savings rate for homeowners was in the negative, worse than renters.

    Helicopter Ben and his GS cronies will keep printing money and killing the dollar so that the debts are paid off in depreciated dollars. Am I wrong in thinking this is their plan, to cause inflation so that the debt is reduced by a devalued dollar?

    ReplyDelete
  22. The U.S. is still the world's largest manufacturer. Many of the companies, particularly smaller ones, don't have the expertise to export (they didn't need to in the past).

    The U.S. has some tough adjustments ahead to compete in a global economy, but they seem (to me) much more adaptable and flexible than many other countries (say Japan and old Europe).

    ReplyDelete
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