Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Monster Statistics

The Monster Employment Index is "a broad and comprehensive monthly analysis of of U.S. online job demand". It is calculated and released by Monster Worldwide, Inc. the large online employment company and it includes data from approx. 1,500 different employment sites. Why should you care? Because the Help Wanted Index of newspaper ads - the older, traditional gauge of current demand for employees - is no longer valid. The rapid spread and acceptance of Internet technology has completely changed the way employers advertise for open positions. Charts of both indexes are provided below.


This is the Help Wanted Advertising Index, published by the Conference Board. It is based on newspaper ads and several years ago it would point to a massive recession - but no longer, of course.







The green bars represent the Monster Employment Index (MEI), which is based on online job offerings and it obviously presents a very different picture, more consistent with what is actually happening in job creation and demand.





What is quite interesting with this index is that, unlike the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs data, it does not adjust its findings for the assumed "birth/death" of businesses, i.e. it does not add or subtract jobs depending on an estimate for the creation (or demise) of new business establishments. The BLS "birth/death" model is a very important element in the ultimate calculation of reported monthly job numbers; it skews them depending on its assumption of where we are in the business cycle. If we are deemed to be in an expansion, the model adds jobs to the actual BLS findings, on the presumption that the economy is adding new businesses and jobs quicker than the government can trace them - and vice versa if we are deemed to be in a contraction. This means that during inflection periods, i.e. when the business cycle changes direction - the job numbers as reported by BLS may be significantly overstated or understated until the "bias" in the model is adjusted.

Back to our charts: We observe that during the last six months the MEI is essentially flat and its annual rate of increase is rapidly coming down. This means the number of jobs advertised on the Internet are no longer rising from month to month. If we add that the Help Wanted Index is sharply down in the same period, we come to the conclusion that the total number of jobs advertised in the US is coming down. We don't quite know by how much yet, because the structural shift between newspaper and Internet job postings is still ongoing. But overall, it looks as if the employment situation has stalled.

18 comments:

  1. It would be interesting to see the Monster index by sector. You gave the number of new jobs per sector a while ago. But knowing which sectors are not even trying to recruit would be valuable.

    ReplyDelete
  2. About that rate cut:

    It was entirely necessary, given the heart attack in the commercial paper markets – which have contracted $368bn in seven weeks, and are still contracting;...

    eh

    ReplyDelete
  3. Don't forget most jobs are LOCAL.
    And, Craigslist is probably a better barometer. Would you kindly do a survey or index using Craigslist?

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Anonymost #2:

    what makes you think that the number of job ads in Monster and in Craigslist would behave differently? Why would the number of local (Craigslist) jobs increase when the number of nationwide (Monster) decrease, or vice versa?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Congratulations on more uniquely insightful analysis! Very interesting and useful.

    ReplyDelete
  6. All of this good analysis here and elsewhere aside, the markets now seem to mostly shrug off any and all bad news.

    I'm starting to be convinced that subprime etc will be stage managed well enough to stabilize the markets. People -- "investors" -- have confidence in this, which is absolutely key, because it will keep them in the markets in a climate of falling interest rates (i.e. what else are they going to do with their money?). Even if it means more rate cuts, and even if these rate cuts mean the dollar will fall further. The housing pain in the US can probably be strung out over a long enough time period that its impact during any one quarter or even year is not significant, i.e. threatens a recession. And even if it starts to look like a housing/foreclosure-led recession is in the works, the federal government will take action -- some sort of action to mitigate the impact. A taxpayer bailout will be seen as the 'lesser of two evils' by everyone whose opinion matters -- this is becoming clear.

    So TBH, I now have serious doubts that in the near- or mid-term future we will see a bear market worth trading on (in the long-term, who knows). I just see no sign of it.

    eh

    ReplyDelete
  7. Most of the jobs posted at Monster are from HR companies, potentially having a lot of duplicates.

    Jobs posted at Craiglist tend to come from direct employers. Plus, they will reflect regional hiring patterns more accurately.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I'm always confused by this, the debt level of the USA is 50 Trillion, and that's obviously a lot, but why can't we just keep creating more and more debt and just pay the min.? Figuring that money has to go somewhere, can't the creditors just keep creating more and more credit so people can borrow endlessly?

    ReplyDelete
  9. You can't borrow forever because your creditors will eventually demand repayment. And if you don't repay, they WILL dump your currency, which causes massive inflation. In other words, say goodbye to the balanced social structure that is the Great American Experiment. Expect your kids to become wage-slaves with NO long term prospects of becoming rich.

    ReplyDelete
  10. "Expect your kids to become wage-slaves with NO long term prospects of becoming rich."

    If you want to have an idea of what America may look like within say one or two decades (your kids at work), I can give you an example of what it will look like.

    Japand or, if you prefer, Belgium at the beginning of the nineties have been through.

    Countries with horrendous tax rates and a gloomy depressed atmosphere.

    Well that's the best you can expect. Hope the country to become kind of socialist. Well labour possibly more (not my cup of tea but national self-preservation is at stake).

    That will make business life even worse but may protect society from the worse.

    Make sure the most brilliant and/or active among your kids learn languages. Since it may and will trigger a generation of expats.

    Why not consider moving abroad if you have a chance to as well if you are young enough.

    Bush was the guy in charge. But the debt attitude is something wider that no leader is alone responsible for.

    It is still possible to reverse the trend but the political cost would be so high. Why would you expect this miracle to happen?

    Quite sorry about this all.

    ReplyDelete
  11. @anonymous, latest.

    I do not exactly know about Japan or Belgium, but in general we have rather high taxes in Europe. In Finland, we definitely have higher taxes.

    But we never,ever have had gloomy depressed atmosphere here in Finland. Nor have I seen such anywhere in Europe, not even in Hungary and Poland in late 1980s.

    And by the way, Americans in the USA are working much more than anyone in Europe.

    About socialism I do not know - I do not see the connection to this discussion.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Monsters is a much broader listing. Craig's Lists tend to the hi-tech.

    ReplyDelete
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