Monday, October 15, 2007

Super SIV? No: PBoC Policy

No. This post is not going to be about the Super-Sieve, the structure that will act as sinful banks' SIV Purgatory. Intelligent people with a modicum of market knowledge and experience can come to their own conclusions, always depending on their individual perspectives. All I can do is refer history buffs to the Borgia Pope.

On to other, more important news.

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) raised its reserve ratio yet again on Saturday, trying to control surging credit expansion and inflation. They upped it by 0.50% to 13% - the eighth such move this year and the thirteenth in a tightening cycle that started four years ago. Clearly, their determination to tighten money has become significantly more forceful recently. The chart below chronicles their moves since 2004.


We can immediately see the genesis-point of today's Chinese bubble: the two year period between 2004 and 2006 when PBoC maintained very low interest rates and reserve requirements. Cheap money resulted in massive capital investment, sucking in huge quantities of raw materials and further boosting cheap exports to the US, which was itself going through a rapid real estate, credit and consumer expansion. The dollar-yuan peg and low Chinese rates made US borrowing from China easier, to finance a ballooning trade deficit.

But PBoC is now moving in the exact opposite direction from the Fed: they are tightening, while the Fed is easing. Unless the US can rapidly increase its own saving rate to provide more domestic credit to the economy, borrowing from abroad is going to get less available and more expensive. And this at a time when the mortgage and LBO debt markets are themselves contracting.

This is the real news...the SIV to end all SIVs is public relations.


9 comments:

  1. ...while the Fed is easing.

    By "easing" I guess you mean lowering interest rates. But I have seen in several places analysis that suggests the money supply has actually shrunk as a direct result of Fed action:

    Bernanke Has Snookered Us All:

    Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have done something extraordinary. They have publicly lowered the FedFunds target rate, and have forced down the actual FedFunds rate to meet the target rate, while deflating the money supply.

    eh

    ReplyDelete
  2. Regarding savings rate of Americans.

    The higher the savings rate, the less money left for private consumption. The less money left for consumption, the lower growth of GDP.

    I assume that higher savings rate would lead to immediate recession. Am I wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  3. I assume that higher savings rate would lead to immediate recession. Am I wrong?

    Of course you are right. I can tell you that the consequences of such a move (we are going through it here in Europe) are quite tough.

    Unemployment will rise quite fast. It cannot be prevented whatever politicians do say and will alas be very corrosive.

    Of course deficits will run down. But only slowly. As everybody is aware, spending money ain't so difficult, saving it is tougher, making real money takes years...

    So far I cannot see any alternative to saving. First step.

    I have no doubt Washington and New York will try to convince the US middle class that a drastic plunge in private consumption can be avoided. sincerely hope that on such subjects the US people will listen to honest voices (Ron Paul, Bloomberg,...?).

    Re-building a money-conscious economy will take a generation and will require some mental re-tooling.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Oh look, the hedge funds are now targeting the currency pegs in Asia and the Middle East. Recognize how this storyline ends?

    Just to underscore the point, here's an excerpt:

    As Nomura's chairman, Junichi Ujiie, told me in Tokyo: "We're all trying to get money into China any way we can because we know the renminbi has to rise. It's a one way bet. It's wonderful."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/15/ccview115.xml

    The pegs will be broken. When the pegs are broken, the market for US Treasuries will dry up. This is the end game.

    Bernard

    ReplyDelete
  5. I, for one, would value your specific perspective on the super SIV they put together. I've already asked my 401K provider if they plan on buying any paper issued by that stinker for funds under their management.

    In the meantime, everyone sign the petition.

    http://financialpetition.org/

    ReplyDelete
  6. SIV cows
    You give out cows to people who cant afford one. They promis to give you some of
    the milk. You pass the milk on to hedge funds, who are funding the purchase of
    the cows. The price of cows goes up, you book a fee. Everybody is happy

    Consumer cows
    You get your dream cow, that you could never have afforded. You promis to give
    some of the milk to your bank. Suddenly there is less milk, you give the cow
    back to the bank. You complain that you didnt realize how much milk you will
    have to give to the bank.

    Hedge fund cows
    You buy a promis that you will get milk from people you have never met. The milk
    is flowing nicely for a while. And then it stops. You tell your investors that
    this was not supposed to have happened for another 104,576 years. You buy a
    Ferrari to console yourself.

    Fed cows
    For years you overfeed the cows who become fat and get addicted to food. Some
    die of over-nutrition and heart failures. You give them more food, to keep them
    happy. The price of cows goes up

    Super conduit cows
    You breed cows at your farm with a genetical deficiency. They start dying. You
    take the sick cows and give it to a governement set up special farm for sick
    cows. You get to claim all your cows are healthy.

    Gold cows
    You buy a golden calf. It produces no milk, its very expensive but the price
    goes up every day.

    Sovereign cows
    You hear about cows. You set up a fund to invest in it. You allocate 200billion
    dollars out of your 2trillion reserves for that purpose. You start rumours about
    your Cow Fund

    ReplyDelete
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