Monday, November 19, 2007

Washington (Not Constantinople)

The title is a parody of Istanbul (Not Constantinople), the fun 1953 song by The Four Lads. The tune, which is very similar to Irving Berlin's 1929 Puttin' on the Ritz, has since been covered by many bands, including They Might Be Giants in 1990.

For a hilarious Daffy Duck/Porky Pig cartoon with their version, click here.
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I have on occasion remarked that the current situation, with the US as the largest debtor in the world while still maintaining a huge military machine with ongoing commitments in at least two "hot" wars, has parallels in the waning years of the Ottoman Empire.

Two similarities stand out:

High Debt and Corrupt Financiers

"The Sick Man of Europe" was massively indebted, had a thin and ineffective domestic tax base and relied on foreign loans arranged by London and Continental bankers, who demanded several pounds of flesh. The stories of quick 12-18% gains (in hard currency, no less) from one or two year Ottoman Treasury bills are legion, particularly during the latter part of the 19th century. Many a "respectable" European house made killings in such operations, always in co-operation with local bankers in Istanbul (Constantinople). Look at this review of Gold for the Sultan, a specialist book I do not dare put on the Amazon sidebar: they want almost $100 for it! For those interested, I am certain it can be had for less elsewhere - or you can try the local library.

The instruments and details are different today, of course, but the machinations of mortgage and structured-finance bankers to create and extract embedded fees are identical. Only collusion, malfeasance and determined obscurantism can transform a basket of 100% CCC loans into 85% AAA bonds and produce huge fees paid to all involved. Just look at the food chain: mortgage brokers and supervisors, their shareholders, loan warehousers, loan servicers, the packagers, rating companies, salespeople and managers at investment banks, their shareholders...they all gorged on the spread between what the hapless (and sometimes illicit) borrowers paid and what the ultimate "investors" received.

How large were the spreads? In a word, huge - particularly when compared to regular corporate AAA bond issuance fees. I have heard of spreads of 10 points and in some cases even more. Before anyone objects, these are not basis points but bond price points, i.e. "investors" (in quotation marks because they were either complete fools or corrupt) bought bonds that were worth 85-90% of what they paid, right out of the box. This is money that will never be recouped, under any circumstances. It has been transformed into, and readily consumed as, bottles of Cristal, Porsches, Hamptons homes and vacations in Mustique. I am not surprised that no one is making a big stink about the role of such fees in the creation and propagation of the MBS crisis: It's called Omerta.

Look at who owns the largest heaps of such stinking waste: funds, funds, funds - whose managers bought them because they were such good investments? No: some did it after considerable research and analysis contained within sealed brown envelopes and others just got plied with the business-as-usual extra-curricular goodies (boobs and booze). Like the befuddled innocent said long ago: But...where are the customers' yachts? (see the last book in the sidebar).

An over-indebted state populated by apathetic citizens and feasted upon by legions of perennially corrupt financiers and corruptible politicians: That was what the once mighty Ottoman Empire had become by the 1850's. I leave it to everyone's common sense to determine if there are any Sultans, Grand Viziers, Pashas and Constantinople Bankers around today.

Political and Cultural Paternalism

The political system of the late Ottoman Empire centered around a succession of Sultans who based their power on primogeniture and ruthless elimination of other candidates (usually by strangulation or "accidental" drowning) . If any of you have been to the Topkapi Palace and taken the tour of the private quarters, you know what I'm talking about (reader contest: why were all harem eunuchs negroes?). The ablest candidates rarely made it to the throne: the palace intrigues were constant and the cliques favored those weakest and easiest to manipulate, in order to maintain their privileges and status quo.

In the past quarter century the political scene in the US can only be described as "same old, same old". There are no candidates with fresh ideas out there - or if they have them, they do no dare voice them in public. Yes, there are are credible and attractive non-mainstream candidates, but the idea is to change the mainstream, not to have to reach out to the fringe. Broad-based political innovation is a sign of social, economic and cultural vibrancy, a dynamism necessary to maintain a top spot in the world. Paternalism, repetition and "playing-safe" is a sure sign of society's dissipation.

This decadence can even be identified in popular culture: a steady stream of "safe" movies (remakes, I/II/III/IV series), music stuck for years in an amorphous rut, TV programs that reach for the basest human emotions of violence and lust, incessant shopping for needless trifles as a passtime. How much precious brainpower is applied daily to the production of blast-em' video and computer games? Why are stores now crowing about being first to open their doors after (or even before) Thanksgiving?

I don't demand of our society to reach for a modern-day Sophocles as popular amusement for the masses, as it once was in ancient Athens. Not even Mozart and Bach as creators of everyday music, as they were two centuries ago. But how about a current version of America's own Irving Berlin or George Gershwin? They were wildly popular in their time. Heck, I'll gladly settle for mainstream music with more than a throbbing beat and lyrics containing words exceeding four letters.

Quality for the average American has been thrown away, replaced by the cheapest possible denominator. Cheap thinking, cheaper goods, cheapest culture; and above them all a dissolute political machine that has become so self-indulgent that in the face of adversity it demands nothing more of us but to borrow and shop. We deserve much better than this madness. Contrary to many I don't think average Americans have become thoughtless slobs: but the average "Sultans" have, because we have allowed them to. We do not demand more of them.

We are guilty of neglect towards our democratic institutions. We have too easily fallen prey to a corrosive rhetoric that debases our individual and collective responsibility to our society, to our polis. True democracy is a fragile and precious construct; neglect brings about naive populism, itself one precarious step away from fascism and dictatorship. We the people need to get involved again. It matters little what party, candidate or principles we espouse, so long as we are willing to debate and challenge them and one another.

Or we might as well all go shopping. But we should not then complain if USA comes to stand for United Sultanate of America.

34 comments:

  1. A great entry.

    The same political ideologies: reducing everything in money, especially one's own money, demanding lower taxes. The neo-liberal thinking (greed) has taken over other form of political discourse (justice, fairness, happiness, civil duty), very much in the ways Marxism degenerated to Stalinism a while ago.

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  2. That was one of the best things I have seen in a long time. Thank you for it!

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  3. Nice post. I wouldn't be so optimistic about Boobus Americanus getting out of their rut. The last time I was in the US, everyone looked around 100 lbs overweight, which I thought reflected not just a physical dissipation (well, reverse dissipation; you know what I mean), but a moral and intellectual one as well.

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  4. I have heard of spreads of 10 points and in some cases even more.

    I was involved in a deal a few years ago where we took 50 points out of the trade. Yep, we structured a deal that was worth 50 cents and we sold it to a client at par (100). Lots of morons out there who bought stuff they really had no clue about, and the street was happy to oblige...you just gotta hope its not your pension money going into those deals...

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  5. Well, this sounds european :)
    Just like the great democracy in the US: you can choose between ultra-right wing, or ultra-ultra-right wing. Then you end up with the Bush family, 4 times!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dear "Hellasious",

    I get that you're targeting George Bush again, but I can't for the life of me see where the comparison to the Ottoman Empire comes in. One obvious difference: America is not an empire, unless you're suggesting that Mexico is going to reclaim Texas.

    Sincerely,

    John

    John J. Xenakis
    E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
    Web site: http://GenerationalDynamics.com

    ReplyDelete
  7. Wonderful and perceptive article!

    I didn't get that you were targeting Bush or anyone in particular - more like a very wide segment of the US.

    thank you for all of your bloggings.

    I'm curious, what do you think will happen with gold and silver in the coming years?

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  8. The last time I was in the US, everyone looked around 100 lbs overweight, which I thought reflected not just a physical dissipation...

    I wouldn't pin it all on moral dissipation.

    Subsidized corn forms the base of our food pyramid. Almost 70% of our carbohydrates come in the form of high fructose corn syrup.

    HFCS has a high glycemic and inflammation index and rockets blood sugar and insulin levels. This leads to the body storing additional fat. The large amount of insulin in the body creates inflammation which leads to heart disease, diabetes and other health issues.

    The majority of our fats are low Omega 3 corn oil or soybean oil where the Omega 3 has been converted to trans fats. Starved of an essential fatty acid we crave fat. Trans fats increase inflammation while Omega 3's decrease it for a double hit to the heart.

    Our protiens are mostly hormone and anti-biotic ladens beef and chicken fed on a diet of mostly corn. Other than an increase in e-coli I don't know what impact that has.

    The baby boomers were the first generation raised on industrial food processing. An entire generation doomed to chronic health problems.

    The Romans swapped out sugar for lead acetate. I wonder if HFCS and trans fats are Americans lead acetate.

    ReplyDelete
  9. We have too easily fallen prey to a corrosive rhetoric that debases our individual and collective responsibility to our society

    In part because that has been the conservative mantra for the last 25 years: "The collective is evil, the individual is pre-eminant. Any strengthening of the common good is an effront to liberty." And this is what we end up with.

    ReplyDelete
  10. America is not an empire

    Oh no?

    According to the Defense Department's annual "Base Structure Report" for fiscal year 2003, which itemizes foreign and domestic U.S. military real estate, the Pentagon currently owns or rents 702 overseas bases in about 130 countries and HAS another 6,000 bases in the United States and its territories. Pentagon bureaucrats calculate that it would require at least $113.2 billion to replace just the foreign bases -- surely far too low a figure but still larger than the gross domestic product of most countries -- and an estimated $591,519.8 million to replace all of them. The military high command deploys to our overseas bases some 253,288 uniformed personnel, plus an equal number of dependents and Department of Defense civilian officials, and employs an additional 44,446 locally hired foreigners. The Pentagon claims that these bases contain 44,870 barracks, hangars, hospitals, and other buildings, which it owns, and that it leases 4,844 more.

    These numbers, although staggeringly large, do not begin to cover all the actual bases we occupy globally. The 2003 Base Status Report fails to mention, for instance, any garrisons in Kosovo -- even though it is the site of the huge Camp Bondsteel, built in 1999 and maintained ever since by Kellogg, Brown & Root. The Report similarly omits bases in Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Qatar, and Uzbekistan, although the U.S. military has established colossal base structures throughout the so-called arc of instability in the two-and-a-half years since 9/11.

    For Okinawa, the southernmost island of Japan, which has been an American military colony for the past 58 years, the report deceptively lists only one Marine base, Camp Butler, when in fact Okinawa "hosts" ten Marine Corps bases, including Marine Corps Air Station Futenma occupying 1,186 acres in the center of that modest-sized island's second largest city. (Manhattan's Central Park, by contrast, is only 843 acres.) The Pentagon similarly fails to note all of the $5-billion-worth of military and espionage installations in Britain, which have long been conveniently disguised as Royal Air Force bases. If there were an honest count, the actual size of our military empire would probably top 1,000 different bases in other people's countries, but no one -- possibly not even the Pentagon -- knows the exact number for sure, although it has been distinctly on the rise in recent years.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Excellent commentary Hellasious. That really resonated with me.

    There is an excellent Fortune magazine article that explains the "CDO manufacturing process" in more detail, with a particular focus on Merrill. Some of the details are actually kind of shocking. A must read.

    Key excerpts:

    Merrill and other banks typically don't operate CDOs. True to their role as middlemen, they help clients create CDOs, take a fee, and then exit the deal. It was Merrill's decision to alter this template - by becoming a huge investor in the funds it assisted - that got the firm in trouble.

    To keep the merry-go-round spinning, Merrill apparently made a pivotal - and reckless - decision. It bought big swaths of the AAA paper itself, loading the debt onto its own books. "Merrill took the top tranches onto its own balance sheet," says Scott Sprinzen, an analyst with S&P. "The amounts were staggering."

    By the end of June, Merrill held $41 billion in subprime CDO and subprime mortgage bonds.

    Merrill's $41 billion exposure to subprime paper was more than its entire shareholders' equity of $38 billion.

    Merrill still has $21 BILLION OF UNHEDGED EXPOSURE to subprime bonds.

    It's also holding $11 BILLION IN CDO BONDS that it says are fully hedged. Analysts are worried about how effective those hedges will be as prices plunge.

    http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/11/26/101232838/index.htm

    ReplyDelete
  12. Today, Nov 19th, is the anniversary of The Gettysburg Address. It is a sobering read.

    Each time I visit the US I make a point of asking anyone I can, 'who was the leader of the Confederate States'. I get some very odd answers. Initially this ignorance concerned me. Afterall, the Civil War was THE cataclysmic event in your history - it defined the Union.

    The current political/economic/social situation in the US is not unique. We have somewhat similar situations in parts of Europe; feckless politicans and ruthless and greedy globalists. The situation is a phase; it will pass, but the unwinding is likely to be quite unpleasant for ordinary folk.

    Individuals or even groups, could hasten the unwinding process, but they would have to possess extraordinary resources to withstand the withering onslaught of the powerful, decision-making elites. Anyhow, it seems as these same elites may just have 'engineered' a self-destruct tipping point. We shall see.

    Tonight I shall light a wood and turf fire and re-read The Patriot (Sen Gary Hart; 1966) - accompanied with a few glasses of Chateau Musar. To-morrow I shall continue to enlighten my grandchildren. It's the only road that I have control over at present.

    Brian P

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  13. Hellasious:

    Perhaps you think we will soon be like the Orphans of God.

    But they have captured our siblings and rendered them mute
    They've disputed our lineage and poisoned our roots
    We have bought from the brokers who have broken their oaths
    And we're out on the streets with a lump in our throats

    We are soot-covered urchins running wild and unshod
    We will always be remembered as the orphans of God
    They will dig up these ruins and make flutes of our bones
    And blow a hymn to the memory of the orphans of God


    And kicker, I like your comment about corn. I think there is good evidence that it is right on target. Can you give me the sources of your information?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Si jefe, 'America is not an empire'

    but a patch put over the bloody wounds left when, post-WWII, the arrows of European colonialism were withdrawn and driven out.
    A 'patch' though which through political economic control of, and assistance by, local elites not only failed to staunch the flows but enhanced them to the greater glory and good of a neocolonial not-imperial center with its pretensions to democracy. A democracy made affordable through dollar hegemony, tied loans, bribes, direct interventions, control of supranational institutions such as FMI..all the magic of unequal exchange.
    But all good things seem to end...

    ReplyDelete
  15. The Eunuchs were black for insurance purposes I imagine One might assume that removing the sexual reproductive apparatus would be sufficient to insure against the emergence of unwanted offspring, but just in case some sperm got though, at least folks would know who was who.

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  16. Your thesis is pretty much nonsensical right from the start. While the perpetually bankrupt Ottoman Treasury was paying out 12-18% on short term bills, US Treasuries are now yielding as low as they ever have in the last decade. Also, foreign inflows of capital into US Treasuries even as global equity and credit markets are in turmoil.

    Clearly, the market sees the US Treasury (and, by implication, the US government) as the safest creditor around.

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  17. america does have an empire. an empire of culture.

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  18. jag, let Brad Setser update you on foreign inflows into U.S. treasuries. Other than from foreign central banks, it appears that such flows have come to a halt, i.e. private parties are apparently not so enamored of U.S. paper.

    Another bad TIC data release

    Brad Setser | Nov 19, 2007

    http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/227482

    ReplyDelete
  19. re: jag's comment

    "..While the perpetually bankrupt Ottoman Treasury was paying out 12-18% on short term bills, US Treasuries are now yielding as low as they ever have in the last decade."

    The Ottoman Treasury did not pay 12-18% interest rates, nominally. As I said, these were the total gains made by the financiers, who traded and manipulated the FX value of the Ottoman currency, as well as other inside deals, all based on moving T-bills around. If you are interested in more in depth info I recommend you read the book, or other sources dealing with that period.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
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