Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Les Liaisons Dangereuses

Let's say we are mortgage lenders who managed to dodge most of the bullets that killed or maimed so many of our fellow bankers last year. We want to stay in business and keep lending to qualified borrowers, so we must come up with updated lending standards for 2008 and 2009, specifically the down payment required.

The reason we focus on down payments is because research has shown that negative equity (i.e. a house worth less than the mortgage outstanding) is the single biggest factor leading to default. Most models today view mortgages as contracts with attached put options favoring the borrower: when the house value drops significantly below the loan amount the borrower can "put" the house back to the lender and simply walk away (a.k.a. "jingle mail").

In recent years, we have also become aware of shifting social attitudes: debt is no longer viewed as a "moral" obligation, a binding social contract between consenting parties, but as an adversarial relationship between borrower and lender. Therefore, as conservative businesspeople we must also account for a higher probability that borrowers will walk away from their debts, if it suits them.

(This phenomenon requires a discussion all by itself. In brief, I believe it is ultimately the product of leadership failure, the placing of inordinate emphasis on "free" markets and individualism instead of regulation and the development of cohesive social structures. Let me put it in this - admittedly extreme- way: in the jungle no one owes anything to anyone.)

In order to set the down payment percentage required, we must first predict the direction of house prices. In the past, declines were rare, isolated to specific areas and/or lasted for brief periods. Clearly, this is no longer the case; the bursting of the national real estate bubble has changed everything. We must, therefore, come up with some reliable estimate of what house prices will do over the next couple of years. So, we turn to Fannie Mae, the world's largest mortgage buyers, who predict that on top of the 2.2% decline in 2007, house prices will drop another 4.5% in 2008 and 2.6% in 2009. This means that a house we finance today will be priced at 93 cents on the dollar two years out, i.e. our collateral will be worth 7% less.

Based on the above, what down payment will we require to minimize defaults? What kind of error margin are we going to add - if any - on top of Fannie Mae's projections? Will 10% down suffice, or will we ask for 15-20% to be on the safe side? Or will we throw caution to the wind, call it a bottom and try to become the Sultans of Loans by increasing our market share with no-money down loans?

See the problem? The Sultans of Loans model is dead (just ask Countrywide) and the remaining, conservative lenders are increasingly asking for higher down payments. How many savingless Americans can today afford to plunk down 10-20% cash for a house? Let's do some more simple arithmetic:

A two-earner American household has an average disposable income of $70.000/yr. Let's assume they want to buy a $300.000 house and need to put down 15%, i.e. $45.000. Starting from zero, the couple will have to save 5% of their income for 13 years, or 10% for 6.5 years. Compare that saving rate with reality, as shown in the chart below:

Personal Saving Rate

Americans haven't consistently saved 5-10% of their income in decades and are currently at 0%, or even negative saving rates. How will they put together the required deposit for a house?

Ladies and gentlemen of the SuddenDebt S&L Credit Committee,

I am sorry to report that we are in for the long haul in this real estate/credit crisis. It's simple arithmetic... And on this day of hugs and kisses for our loved ones, I have to recommend that hard love is the only course we can take with our potential borrowers. Otherwise, our liaisons will become very dangerous, indeed.

Sincerely,

Val Mont
CEO

P.S. I just got this from our Realtor (R) friends:

The median sale price of a U.S. home dropped 5.8 percent to $206,200 in the last three months of 2007 from $219,000 in the same period of 2006, the realtors group said today. Prices fell in 77 of 150 metropolitan areas, the most since the group began tracking values in 1979. The decline was 10 percent or more in 16 metro areas, the association said.

Val



59 comments:

  1. Incomes will have to rise, house prices will have to fall, until the equation of downpayment/mortgage rate, price and income triangulate again.

    Going into a recession, real incomes will not go up but down. Bankers will demand a downpayment after being burned, so the buyer has some skin in the game. This leaves housing prices to plummet.

    How low can they go, Hellasious?

    ReplyDelete
  2. A two-earner American household has an average disposable income of $70.000/yr.

    H:

    Are you sure you didn't add a zero to this statistic? I would never have thought that disposable income was that high. For that matter, I would never have thought that average total income was that high in a two-earner household.

    Maybe it's because I am from Oklahoma, and people just don't make that kind of money in Oklahoma.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Re: incomes

    It's always tough to provide a clear picture of family finances. The ~$70.000 figure is a simplistic division of total DPI ($10 trillion) with total population (300 million).

    For more detail, the Fed runs a triennial survey of households, latest is for 2004. According to that, the MEAN pre-tax family income is $70.000, but it is heavily skewed: 80% of households made $70.000 OR LESS. The next 10% made $105.000 and the top 10% made $185.000.

    It's the "Bill Gates walks in the bar" effect..

    Regards,
    H.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'm sorry, but I was left at the door with that statement too: "A two-earner American household has an average disposable income of $70.000/yr."

    That's so far above the median income for most families, I just don't know what to say. That may be the mean, but the median is far less.

    Based on the median, house prices are so far out of whack, they just have to come down.

    Also, with regards to jingle mail -- corporations stopped caring about workers decades ago. Why should workers care about corporations? It's that old saying "What goes around, comes around." If banks want to make loans that get paid back, well, I think we're quite a few years away from that. First housing prices have to fall and incomes have to increase or at least stabilize.

    But, in the meantime, I read today that car companies are now making 84 month loans on cars. That's just hysterical if you ask me. Most cars don't even hold up for 84 months.

    Let's face it. Our financial system is out of whack. Maybe we should throw it away and start over again?

    ReplyDelete
  5. This phenomenon requires a discussion all by itself...: in the jungle no one owes anything to anyone.

    Recent discussions about the effects of 'diversity' (and attendant 'multiculturalism') ring true to me.

    Another take on the same phenomenon.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thank you H. Brilliant summary of the way it goes!

    Exactly! There is no easy, painless way out of this. It will hurt, and the pain will just last a lot longer, the more the government tries to interfere. It will hurt many, as the housing prices will be cut by 50% from the top. Banks that have leached their customers and investors for years will go belly up. The choice is to take the medicine now - and write this year off from the history - and start again building from the ashes next year, or slowly suffer the next decade.

    And yes Gracie, totally agree with you. As the banks and big corporations have no responsibility to common man, why should there be responsibility to them.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Median household income for two-earner housholds in 2005 was in the neighborhood of $60,000. (For all households it was near $48,000). At $60k, with two kids, standard deduction, federal income taxes will be in the neighborhood of $4k a year. SS / Medicare I don't know. All told that will leave somewhere in the range of $50-55k of disposable income per year for a median two-earner household.

    (nb disposable income is different from discretionary income!)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thanks to Andrew for the median income data.

    Based on $55.000 median income and the median price of a home in the US (latest ~$220,000), a 15% down payment at 5% saving rate would take 12 years to accumulate. Throw in interest accumulating at ~2% per year and it will probably drop to 10 years..

    Regards,
    H.

    ReplyDelete
  9. It wasn't "leadership" that ended the moral contract regarding debt, it was and is the usurious interest rates.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hellasious wrote:

    “in the jungle no one owes anything to anyone”

    That could be my motto, although I do feel I owe my family support and aid.

    Instead of “In God We Trust” on our currency I would like to see “in the jungle no one owes anything to anyone” and instead of presidents likenesses maybe we could substitute the most voracious predators. After all, isn’t it time to get real, before it’s too late?

    My parents still believe that they are borrowing “hard-earned” money from bank and have the highest moral responsibility to repay it. I, on the other hand, defaulted on all of my obligations (credit cards) after being jerked around for too many years. I could also see that having loans for any type of consumption would be unaffordable in the future. Car loans, home loans, credit cards - the average family will be and is unable to pay any interest to banks. There simply won’t be enough earned income to feed oneself and the lenders.

    FICA score? More important than your blood pressure? Not for long. Borrowing money will be like smoking cigarettes, dangerous to your health and too expensive. And God help you if anyone in your family gets sick. Can you afford interest or a mortgage payment and $12,000 a year in health insurance premiums? Can you afford anything when you see your pension vaporized and home value sink into the abyss.

    Lenders should be seen for what they have become – predators. It is now time to hold on to what you have and build a wall of resilience as every organization that feeds on energy (money) will be looking for someone or something to plunder in the future.

    Last night I fell asleep in a most comforting fantasy land – this morning the sun broke upon a vast jungle.

    Watch the movie “The Naked Prey”, it will give you some flavor of what things will be like for those foreclosed upon in fossil fuel fantasy land and dumped back into life’s jungle.

    ReplyDelete
  11. dopamine wrote:

    ...after being jerked around for too many years.

    How were you "jerked around" into buying all that stuff with your plastic? Did you not read and understand the terms and conditions of the card? Including the interest rate on unpaid balances?

    anonymous 3:55 wrote:

    ...the usurious interest rates.

    Not sure what "usurious" rates you are thinking of (in my middle class life I've not really encountered any rates that I would call "usurious", except maybe...), but one reason credit card rates are so high is that many people default on their balances, and these losses have to be made up some way.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hellasious

    Can we draw the conclusion from this that if banks require 20% down, it will take 10 years to get out of this housing downturn?

    Jason B

    ReplyDelete
  13. People walk away when values drop below debt. Even more smart people, stuck with adjustable loans, walk away when they realize rates are lowest in 35+ years.If whatever happens in the future involves higher rates; RE prices are certain to continue their decline.They're thinking, "Why pay more for less?"

    ReplyDelete
  14. Eh wrote:

    “How were you "jerked around" into buying all that stuff with your plastic? Did you not read and understand the terms and conditions of the card? Including the interest rate on unpaid balances?”


    I think it was the “universal default” rules that finally clinched it for me. I was late on one credit card payment and the rates on my other cards skyrocketed to 27%. They gave me the option of paying off all of my balances on all of my cards, but that was not really an option at the time. It became clear to me that they were “predators”. I don’t tremble before the almighty credit scores and agencies. I fight predators and do all I can to see them perish. I’m glad their creditworthiness is now or soon will be worse than my own. I wish more people would just stop paying so we could put a stake through the beast’s putrid heart.

    ReplyDelete

  15. Based on $55.000 median income and the median price of a home in the US (latest ~$220,000), a 15% down payment at 5% saving rate would take 12 years to accumulate. Throw in interest accumulating at ~2% per year and it will probably drop to 10 years..


    And how many years if the real interest rate is negative?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hel,

    This was an excellent post. The absence of sizable down payments is one of the most important reasons for a lot of the debt bloat. Higher down payments would have prevented the housing bubble and made the net cost of owning homes lower. Unfortunately, lowering net cost is something our financiers and securitizers hate.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Birthrate predicts slow housing recovery
    http://acheson.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/birth-rate-predicts-unusually-slow-recovery-from-current-housing-downturn/

    ReplyDelete
  18. When house value drop and ARM adjusted upwards with plenty of foreclosures around, SMART people could just buy the bigger and upgrade galore house opposite the street for probably $100K less.

    Then, the smart people would just walk away from their current house of negative equity.

    Granted, their credit history will get destroyed. But I read that it will be erased after 7 years.

    Over $100+K home equity for 7 years destruction? Why not?

    An even smarter way is to transfer existing mortgage to one of the couple and the foreclosure hit only 1 person. Then the good credit partner can still get good rate of all loans in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  19. This bail out is getting me real sick!!!

    =================================
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120294935869166831.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

    Worried Bankers Seek to Shift Risk to Uncle Sam

    WASHINGTON -- The banking industry, struggling to contain the fallout from the mortgage debacle, is urgently shopping proposals to Congress and the Bush administration that could shift some of the risk for troubled loans to the federal government.

    One proposal, advanced by officials at Credit Suisse Group, would expand the scope of loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration. The proposal would let the FHA guarantee mortgage refinancings by some delinquent borrowers.

    Credit Suisse officials have met with senior officials from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which runs the FHA, and other policy makers to discuss the proposal.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I don't know who said it, but I agree 100%: if you see a society where banks and gambling parlours are doing well, be very very concerned.

    With 27% "universal default" penalty rates the banks are stupidly gambling that their customers (prey?) will keep paying off their debt instead of rebelling.

    Such schemes are not only immoral; they are STUPID business. I, for one, can adequately protect myself against solitary predators. But it is much more difficult to protect oneself from lots of incompetent, stupid businessmen, because they end up destroying the whole shebang.

    ReplyDelete
  21. It's been some time since i lived and breathed mortgage defaults, but the relationship between downpayments and default rates isn't really about EQUITY. It's about having skin in the game.

    If you put 20,000 on a house, no matter how small a percentage it is, you will fight not to 'lose' it. Even if the value of your house goes down, mentally, you haven't 'lost' it until you sell. Most mortgageholders will wait and try to hold on.

    Traders spend a lot of time overcoming this kind of thinking. You mark to market partly to help come to grips with the loss, so that you will make good decisions based on the current reality.

    A long way to say that i don't think lenders have to require downpayments that are large enough to overcome falling housing prices, just large enough that the homeowner will feel pain if they have to accept the loss.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I think it's important (for reasons not altogether clear to me at the moment) to clarify that this new attitude towards debt has not evolved over recent years, but has come to pass over the last 6 months. (People have been defaulting forever, people have been feeling less shame only very recently.)

    It's important partly because we brought this on ourselves. It's slowly beginning to occur to people, just like our friend dopamine, that the recent wave of mortgages were designed to blow up the borrower, force the borrower to refinance, force the borrower into an endless series of fees, late fees, refinancing fees and fines. There is an anger that is still muted by the old-fashioned ideas about honoring debts and fairness, but is getting ready to blow. This will be exacerbated dramatically by the coming recession and scaling down that is going to be required.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Repeast After Me: A House Is Not An Investment, A House Is Not An Investment, ...

    once you get past the denial then the numbers will work once prices drop low enough.

    Most $300,000 condos in my area are worth perhaps $30,000.

    ReplyDelete
  24. “Most $300,000 condos in my area are worth perhaps $30,000.”

    Man, come out to Perth, Western Australia and I can show you an entire landscape of development (some 300 square miles of it) going back more than twenty years where the value of liveable accommodation is shortly to be worth something like between forty and fifty percent of its present District Land Registry value. Just one more case of Aussies sleepwalking their way into the 21st Century.

    ReplyDelete
  25. When are we going to admit that not everyone can own a house? Not everyone makes enough money, not everyone manages their finances well enough.

    My parents didn't own a house for the first 15 years of their marriage. They couldn't afford the down payment, they didn't make enough, they didn't have family to borrow from. So they rented.

    The 69% home ownership level recently achieved at the height of the bubble was a fraud (much like a subprime mortgage rated AAA) and its reversion to long long term trends is inevitable. That fact alone boots about what, 3 million people, out of their houses.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I miss "cohesive social structures" already. The jungle lacks many comfy conveniences that I've come to like exceedingly.

    Dopamine-
    The idea of replacing the portrait of Ben Franklin with one of a velociraptor on US currency is fantastic.

    ReplyDelete
  27. This same risk equation relates to refinancing. Upside down loans cannot refi without basically coming up with another down payment.

    Subprime is the big story, but exotic loans were also tools of the "investors" who made up 30%+ of the buyers from California to Oz. The idea there was always to put little skin in the game: zero-down, min payment, flip, sell or refi, cash out. Prices fall - liquidate. It is like stock.

    How much impact does this have on inventory/price/long term de(or a-)appreciation?

    Considering how low the "average income for families" it's no wonder people have taken on so much debt. I imagine a lot of CC purchases paid for the days after one paycheck had run out before the next; over-consumption is only one facet. Most down payments are probably augmented by family.

    It may be the long haul but it's time to look at income, debt and consumption.

    Then again, I fully expect a total bailout.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hellasious: "Let me put it in this - admittedly extreme- way: in the jungle no one owes anything to anyone.)"

    Add our government to the entities that deserves to be ignored or cheated. Illegal war, massive spying programs, amnesty for telecoms, we live in a corrupt broken society--banana republic here we are.

    The majority of people will eventually see the collusion between Washington and Corporations and will feel their patriotic duty to starve the beast.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Choderlos de LaclosFebruary 14, 2008 at 5:03 PM

    And the stupid businessmen will say to Hellasious,

    "It's beyond my control."

    To all his protests and entreaties,

    "It's beyond my control. It's beyond my control...."

    ---------

    But I really don't see Hellasious as Madame de Tourvel. Maybe M. Danceny, after all, he's an intellectual and "one of those rare eccentrics who comes to the opera for the music."

    ReplyDelete
  30. eh:

    re: credit card practices and consumer behavior

    Are credit card practices unconstitutional?

    and today in the Washington Post, I recommend you read Eliot Spitzer's post: Predatory Lenders' Partner in Crime. Here is how it begins:

    Several years ago, state attorneys general and others involved in consumer protection began to notice a marked increase in a range of predatory lending practices by mortgage lenders. Some were misrepresenting the terms of loans, making loans without regard to consumers' ability to repay, making loans with deceptive "teaser" rates that later ballooned astronomically, packing loans with undisclosed charges and fees, or even paying illegal kickbacks. These and other practices, we noticed, were having a devastating effect on home buyers. In addition, the widespread nature of these practices, if left unchecked, threatened our financial markets.

    Even though predatory lending was becoming a national problem, the Bush administration looked the other way and did nothing to protect American homeowners. In fact, the government chose instead to align itself with the banks that were victimizing consumers.


    Credit Is Like Cigarettes

    ReplyDelete
  31. When house value drop and ARM adjusted upwards with plenty of foreclosures around, SMART people could just buy the bigger and upgrade galore house opposite the street for probably $100K less.

    shawn:

    Be very careful about saying this. In order to pull such a scheme off, it is very likely that the crime of fraud will have to be committed. When you fill out a loan application, you will have to disclose all of your debts (including your current mortgage). More than likely, disclosing said mortgage will disqualify you from obtaining the loan. Not disclosing the current mortgage debt would probably be tantamount to "fraudulent inducement to contract" or something similar.

    There are no easy (legal) answers.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Dopamine said:
    "I fight predators and do all I can to see them perish. I’m glad their creditworthiness is now or soon will be worse than my own. I wish more people would just stop paying so we could put a stake through the beast’s putrid heart."

    Reminds me of the scene at the end of Fight Club when they blow up all the credit rating companies to set the record back to zero.
    The first rule of fight club is...

    ReplyDelete
  33. I am still in the 90% less than peak camp until we hit a bottom and see a recovery. Personally, I feel that the current financial issues combined with job losses will drive house/rent values into the ground. Just like any 'investment', which a house has always been regardless of what people are now saying, it is only worth what someone else is willing (more like able, now) to pay.

    I'd say this value is currently: Not Much. This is especially true if you plan to live there for thirty years and pay for up-keep. Current values were achieved partly by the fact that few planned to own long enough to be responsible for any repairs. Anyone buying residential property for 'investment' purposes in the next ten years had better have deep pockets IMHO.

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  34. incompetent, stupid businessmen

    Thank you! I'll be so glad when this irrational worship of the CEO that's been in vogue for the last twenty years or so is dead and buried.

    ReplyDelete
  35. If you sell put options you better price them correctly...nuff said.
    Ah well, live and learn as some amateur investors at USB just figured out.

    ReplyDelete
  36. It's Friday, and it's been a long week! Lots of interesting discussion on here as usual.
    You've all probably seen this before, but it's
    an old one, and it still makes me laugh

    Have a good weekend!

    ReplyDelete
  37. This discussion is compelling.

    Moral obligation is really something difficult to factor in, in these times.

    Debt, as money, has become immaterial and elusive, and so the obligation. Media speak of Trillions, Billions being gambled around.

    There is no way for anybody to feel guilty for walking away from a few thousand $ when a good looking girl can smile on tv chiming that bank xy just wrote down z billions as a consequence of greed and fraud.

    I read the comments about diversity and trust.... interesting but somewhat misleading in this context. Anyway the naked ape is still under our clothes.

    ReplyDelete
  38. I need some help with this off subject decision I'm trying to make...Is it better to pay extra principle on a motgage with 50 percent equity or put the money somewhere else...I would like to cut my mortgage term in half by aggressively paying extra but can't seem to make a final decision...any thoughts are appreciated. I have no other debt except for my mortgage. Everything is paid off!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Here's a headline that I thought I would see discussed here:

    Struggling Citigroup hedge fund bars withdrawals

    ReplyDelete
  40. House prices in California, Florida, Arizona, etc. have fallen farther than the stock market. In our new reality, stock prices are sticky on the way down while house prices are not.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hellasious -

    I believe the shift in attitude re debt is due to the adversarial attitude taken by lenders. Anyone who's ever had a debt collector after them can attest to that. Consumers have finally figured out the game. Defaulting on debt has always been a business decision, but the consumer has baggage of shame and guilt. The cut-throat attitude of lenders in getting consumers to borrow, and then collecting the debt has finally taken its toll. Consumers have woken up, and did the only thing they can - refuse to pay.

    Jason B

    ReplyDelete
  42. Readers of this site will probably appreciate blogger Bonddad's recent missive:

    How do we get out of this mess?

    ReplyDelete
  43. Video:

    Recession - Is this the big one? Al Rosen, forensic accountant, examines a looming economic crisis

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a72_1203224957

    ReplyDelete
  44. Indeed rough times are still ahead for the mortgage industry. The average home price in northern NJ (I used to live there) is nearly $400K. Using otherwise-default figures in the mortgage calculator at the New Jersey HMFA site, I found that with a 5% down payment (about 20 grand) you still end up with a $3530 monthly payment for 30 years.

    My last year there I made nearly $100k, and that would not have been anywhere near enough to finance that loan. Literally that would have been over 3/4 of my take-home pay. I realized at the time that I just couldn't afford to buy, and what I have to wonder about is, who are these people who decided they could afford these enormous loans?

    There must be quite a few people right now wondering what the hell they were thinking.

    ReplyDelete
  45. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
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