The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (January 2008, pdf document) vividly demonstrates that a one-two punch is being delivered to credit expansion: lenders are furiously tightening lending standards and borrowers don't want to borrow. The following charts are from the above survey and tell the story succintly.
First, residential mortgage lending:
First, residential mortgage lending:
Net Percentage of Respondents Tightening StandardsFor Residential Mortgage Loans
Net Percentage of Respondents Reporting Stronger DemandFor Residential Mortgage Loans
Next, commercial real estate credit.
Net Percentage of Respondents Tightening Standards
For Commercial Real Estate Loans
Net Percentage of Respondents Reporting Stronger Demand
For Commercial Real Estate Loans
Net Percentage of Respondents Tightening StandardsFor Commercial Real Estate Loans
Net Percentage of Respondents Reporting Stronger DemandFor Commercial Real Estate Loans
Net Percentage of Respondents Reporting Increased WillingnessTo Make Consumer Installment Loans
Net Percentage of Respondents Reporting Stronger DemandFor Consumer Loans
The picture is the same for corporate and industrial loans, albeit slightly less "crunchy" so far.
Net Percentage of Respondents Tightening Standards
For C&I Loans
Net Percentage of Respondents Reporting Stronger Demand
For C&I Loans
The Borrow-Spend-Grow economic model was never in the best of health, to begin with; the charts now officially proclaim it clinically dead. It is time for the attending physicians and the relatives to realize that they won't revive their patient by increasing the dose of the same medicine. Better to pull the plug and focus on the "maternity ward", instead. That's where the new economy will come from.
It's no time to wallow in sorrow about the dearly departed asset inflation economy. Let's move on: Save-Invest-Sustain.
Net Percentage of Respondents Tightening StandardsFor C&I Loans
Net Percentage of Respondents Reporting Stronger DemandFor C&I Loans
The Borrow-Spend-Grow economic model was never in the best of health, to begin with; the charts now officially proclaim it clinically dead. It is time for the attending physicians and the relatives to realize that they won't revive their patient by increasing the dose of the same medicine. Better to pull the plug and focus on the "maternity ward", instead. That's where the new economy will come from.
It's no time to wallow in sorrow about the dearly departed asset inflation economy. Let's move on: Save-Invest-Sustain.
Is it the end of an era, or a bump in the road?
ReplyDeleteJason B
"Is it the end of an era, or a bump in the road?"
ReplyDeleteNo matter which angle I choose - energy and resources, environment, population, monetary and fiscal policies, macro economics, geopolitical challenges, etc. - the picture keeps looking the same.
The permagrowth model is dead.
Better to pull the plug and focus on the "maternity ward", instead.
ReplyDeleteIt won't be allowed to die.
The permagrowth model is dead.
Let alone be declared dead.
Expect the crackpot bailout schemes to come thick and fast, especially in an election year.
Following the popular financial media pre-crisis, I was often struck by the tone -- it was seen and reported as a problem if the stock market did not go up every day. It was the right of every "investor" that the stock market go up every day. The same mentality is still there, for all to see, and not just in the media.
As I put it on another blog: there are powerful forces arrayed against short sellers.
"As I put it on another blog: there are powerful forces arrayed against short sellers."
ReplyDeleteForget about short sellers. What about just plain sellers.
Mortgage applications in the U.S. increased for a fifth consecutive week, led by a rebound in purchases.
ReplyDeleteThe Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications to buy a home or refinance a loan rose 3 percent last week to 1086.6, the highest since March 2004. The group's purchase index jumped 12 percent and the refinancing gauge fell from a four- year high.
The collapse in the subprime market and tougher lending rules may be prompting borrowers to file multiple applications to ensure financing, economists said. Still, the decline in mortgage borrowing costs as the Federal Reserve has lowered rates may be making homes more affordable for some buyers.
``With tighter lending standards, many applications may be rejected,'' Sam Coffin, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stanford, Connecticut, said in a note to clients. ``Still, the pattern suggests some stimulus from recent declines in interest rates.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a5MECtgQ6EJo&refer=us
Looks more like the lenders don't or can't lend vs borrowers that don't want or need to borrow.
Been reading the blog for a while, good work Hell!
ReplyDeleteAs a psychiatrist I deal in a different type of madness than the financial lunacy of the past 10 debt soaked years.
Have we reached peak personal debt yet? I believe the cheap narcotic of credit will have to be wrenched away from the patient, there will be no voluntary detox.
Some recent figures from the UK:
According to KPMG, 22 per cent of those adults with debts - equating to 6.6 million - are already finding it difficult to meet their repayments.
However, 35 per cent - or 10.6 million - are worried they will find it even more difficult to pay back their debts in a year.
Consumer debts have trebled in the past decade with each household in Britain owing £51,730 ($100,259) on average - a total of £1.345 trillion.
The country is more indebted than any in Europe.
The MBA numbers are going to be quite useless for comparison purposes until next year. During the boom years many (most?) of the mortgages were provided thru mortgage brokers that were non-MBA members, which have since gone bust.
ReplyDeleteThe pick up in applications, to a large extent, is the business now going back to MBA member banks.
Regards,
H.
Hel,
ReplyDeleteHow do you think the tightening will affect the numbers in the next Z.1 Flow of Funds Report? What changes do you expect in comparison to the December report?
About z.1 numbers.
ReplyDeleteDebt is already being destroyed and I'm not sure the Fed's report will (or can) capture it fast enough.
For example, when a CDO was issued at par (100) it raised debt by 100 "points". Let's say it is now worth 10, even if the SPV corporation that issued it has not declared bankruptcy. Theoretically debt is still at 100 - but in practical terms it has decreased by 90 points.
At some point the Fed's data will capture the change but not before official write-offs occur, such as what happened with banks recently.
Regards,
H.
Two very interesting articles related to credit default swaps:
ReplyDeleteInsight: CDS market may create added risks
In case of default, the protection buyer in CDS must deliver a defaulted bond or loan – the deliverable obligation – to the protection seller in return for receiving the face value of the delivered item (known as physical settlement). When Delphi defaulted, for example, the volume of CDS outstanding was $28bn against $5.2bn of bonds and loans. On actively traded names CDS volumes are substantially greater than outstanding debt making it difficult to settle contracts.
CDO Market Is Almost Frozen, JPMorgan, Merrill Say
Those investors previously bet the classes would default by using derivatives called credit-default swaps. By buying the classes, they want to collect their windfalls sooner, as well as end the regular default-protection payments they owe, which may stretch on for more than a decade, he said...Under about half of the swap contracts, Rizzo said, they can collect their windfalls sooner by delivering the class after a steep-enough downgrade to the bank that's taken their wager. The bank, which doesn't want to own the class, could then sell it to a similar investor..."I've traded one bond that's worthless eight times this year," Rizzo said. "So it's like, 'How many times can I trade the same bond that's worthless for five cents?' It is kind of funny."
Your thoughts on this would be very much appreciated, H.
The reality may prove different.
And so much more interesting.
It seems to me that the baby is already formed and its parentage is well-known: Lockheed Martin and the Carlyle Group. As our energy dwindles and our ability to create real capital also diminishes we will face a fork in the road from which there will be no return. We will use military domination and intimidation to get what we need for the existing growth paradigm, for a while, or we will put our energies into peaceful reorganization of existing living arrangements and modification of expectations.
ReplyDeleteOne path gives substantial benefit to global corporations and banksters, for a while, and the other path gives greatest benefit to U.S. citizens for the long term. It should be recognized that dissipative structures (this includes global corporations) are most interested in their own well-being and energy acquisition and not that of their host countries. They will play whichever side pays the bills and supplies the sugar.
Perhaps a panel of scientists and social leaders should vote yearly upon the charters of these corporations. If they operate in the interest of the citizens of the United States they are allowed to survive. If they do not their charters are revoked. Lobbying would be punishable by death. Socialist? Maybe. But people really don’t know what’s best for them, they just know what feels good.
Next domino: Student Loans? If (when) lenders start tightening standards will it be based on the quality of the school and the probability that a graduate of said institution will be able to secure a job that will enable them to repay?
ReplyDeleteIf so this could provide some interesting dynamics: lenders rating schools level of quality (as opposed to magazines). What will be the ramifications to the ever growing number of ivory towers and degree programs?
hell - when you state falling " Demand For Residential Mortgage Loans" or "and borrowers don't want to borrow" is it because people do not 'want to borrow' or their applications are being rejected? i can not imagine that people will stop borrowing considering it is their only source of income to cover debt service. ties in to the deflationary argument in that 'people refuse to borrow'.
ReplyDeleteif i owed $1mil and didnt have a job and you offered to loan me $100k to keep going what do i have to lose?.............................great blog!
Shades of the 70's, and "Small Is Beautiful" (Schumacher)!
ReplyDelete"No matter which angle I choose - energy and resources, environment, population, monetary and fiscal policies, macro economics, geopolitical challenges, etc. - the picture keeps looking the same.
ReplyDeleteThe permagrowth model is dead."
Unless we keep it going until there is an environmentally imposed population reduction, once we damage the web of life so badly that we cripple the Earth's carrying capacity. I belive we are incapable of regulating ourselves as yeast in a vat of wort, and we will keep on consuming and polluting right down to the bitter end, until we die in our own filth.
Jason B
Things are reminding me of the end of the movie "Three Days of the Condor" which used to be on all the time;
ReplyDeleteTURNER:Do we have plans to invade the Middle East? HIGGINS:Are you crazy? TURNER:Am I? HIGGINS:Look Turner TURNER:Do we have plans? HIGGINS:No! Absolutely not! We have games! That's all; we play games! What if? How many men? What would it take? Is there a cheaper way to destablize a regime? That's what we're paid to do. HIGGINS:No, it's simple economics. Today, it's oil, right? In ten or fifteen years, food, plutionium, maybe even sooner. Now what do you think the people are going to want us to do then? TURNER:Ask them HIGGINS:Not now; then! Ask em when they're running out! Ask em when there's no heat in their homes and they're cold. Ask em when their engines stop. Ask em when people who've never known hunger start going hungry. Want to know something? They won't want us to ask em! They'll just want us to get it for em.
Jason B
Jason B,
ReplyDeleteI've been lurking on a lot of scary financial blogs today, but you've actually got me tweaked into thinking that its time to buy vitamin and ammo..
Jason B.
ReplyDeleteAs much as I enjoyed 3 Days of the Condor...don't tell me...let me guess...you think Oliver Stone's films are "documentaries", too, don't you?
Hellasious:
ReplyDeleteAnother well-placed sledge-hammer hit.
You've inadvertently switched on one of my favorite hobby horses. It goes something like this:
Have you been wondering what's keeping 'merkins from shifting out of consumption into innovation/creation mode?
The internet makes it relatively easy to find like-minded people...the tools and materials and know-how have never been easier to source. So, there are no big missing-resource obstacles.
That said, I wonder if we aren't approaching some type of cultural tipping point. I can't see it, I can't predict it...I just feel as if it must be happening. There's a lot of really smart people spending prodigious amounts of time and energy on the web. We can't be that far from the innovation that will enable us to step up the value-chain from just exchanging information to the next stage, e.g. organizational formation and plan execution (implementation).
I'm saying that there's a "missing mechanism" obstacle. The building blocks are available, but the synthesis to a higher-order molecule hasn't occurred yet. Haven't had the lucky lightening yet.
Think about Facebook, or blogs. Maybe throw in open source culture. Now layer on the "vet the business plan in front of seasoned VCs" shindigs that were all the rage in late 90's. Mix.
Using those building blocks, can you synthesize a higher-order bundle of web-based functionality that acts as a concept-refinement, team-building, resource-acquiring prototype-building super-collider mechanism? One that results in strangers being able to find the right strangers and actually working together as a distributed team, well enough to actually build prototypes/pilots, and from there getting a few customers, a little financing, etc., etc. & then airborne.
This isn't the right forum to fully develop this package of ideas, but I wanted to put a few shiny objects on the table, and see what happens.
eh offered...
ReplyDelete"It (the perma-growth model) won't be allowed to die. Expect the crackpot bailout schemes to come thick and fast, especially in an election year."
The schemes may come, but they will not come to fruition. It's over. The bond market, an organism that can not be defied, will see to that. Why do you think that the long end of the bond market is not following (as it should were things remotely normal) the short end lower? It's the fear of stimulus packages. You know, the ones that aren't being paid for, that are the reason the long end of the bond market won't come down. So, while a government that is hot for stimulus packages may indeed be something of an irresistible force, the bond market will prove to be the immovable object.
Someone else out here mentioned more military escapades to cope with the impending trauma. Quite possibly, but I hope not as not only would that be morally repugnant, but given the vastly altered geo-political scene, almost certainly doomed to failure.
Hellasious,
ReplyDeleteYou never commented on the non borrowed reserve hoopla of a couple days back (when the non-borrowed reserve column went negative--never before seen since 1959).
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
Did this not concern you...did it bore you?
The non-borrowed reserves..
ReplyDeleteActually I did comment...here it is again: it looks like the banks are replacing own money with cheaper money borrowed through the Fed's TAF. The before and after amounts matched pretty closely.
Regards,
H.
Does the US pay for anything anymore? Why should a stimulus package be any different? **rolling eyes**
ReplyDeleteOuterBeltway
ReplyDeleteA well written comment.
Wot? The web as a creative, alternative government! Instead of the collection of cranks, weirdoes and misfits it presently is? If the concept ever came into fruition it would be the worst nightmare imaginable for the traditional Judeo-Christian centric government of the day. But—I doubt if it ever could. Americans (especially Americans) are too wedded to the wage-slave/earn-and-spend model ever to challenge their masters in so blatant a recourse.
Spyware:
ReplyDeleteThere are some bottom-up phenomenons that are not stoppable once they reach a critical mass. I believe we are well-past that point. Every new blog, every new open-source project pushes us that much further past the tipping point.
The "masses" have never been responsible for any great advances. The advances come from small groups of outliers that somehow came together around an idea and built a prototype.
Our moment in history demands a whole bunch of new advances, and we need them right now. Therefore we need outliers, and the means to connect and empower them.
The question is only where and by whom the lightening bolt will be delivered that creates this new mechanism.
Why not from you?
Let's move on: Save-Invest-Sustain.
ReplyDeleteThe latest marvel of American business innovation:
http://www.pajamagram.com/
OuterBeltway
ReplyDeleteThis new economy idea is great in formulation but short on real world application. Pooling people in a room or on a blog has proven no more producytive at producing ideas (open source) than bill gates tinkering in his garage. Your idea is noble and new age, the application is a reach with no historical support. Americans need to return to a model of producing value added goods. tangible goods. I suggest reading MArtin Wolfs latest commentary in the FT. Your governement has leveraged the farm on the services business - namely financial - and as sub prime shows and savvy sovereigns also, that was bad bet. The dislocations and uneconomic allocation of resources decades over will not be easily reconciled. I agree with the conflict thesis. it is the only one that makes sense when the model finally proves itself bankrupt.
Thanks Hell, sorry I missed it the first time.
ReplyDeleteHuman beings consume until the resource is depleted. We don't self regulate, and we won't. Look at what happened to the large herbavores in North America when humans arrived. Gone. And the trees on Easter Island and Iceland. Gone. What will happen to the rainforests and oil and natural gas. All gone. Fresh water and topsoil. It will be gone.
ReplyDeleteThen we will be gone too.
Jason B
jason B, We will all be gone soon enough, right? Human life is fragile and ends quickly no matter how many natural resources are consumed or remain.
ReplyDeleteJason B:
ReplyDeleteNot all humans consume till resource depletion. Some are intelligent enough to realize what that means, and to adjust behavior in advance.
This is what Hellasious is doing. In addition to dodging the bullet for himself, he's attempting to help others dodge the bullet, too.
This is the first time in human history that there's enough cause-and-effect knowledge, and enough wealth to enable us to dodge the bullet as a society.
The bus that will flatten us draws nigh. I hope you don't spend any more time telling yourself that you can't avoid getting squashed. Darwin, and all your other friends would love to see you move quickly and decisively out of the way.
---------
And for 'S', who posted this:
"...the application is a reach with no historical support. Americans need to return to a model of producing value added goods - tangible goods."
I bet most inventors could care less whether there's "historical support" for their new ideas. I certainly don't let it get in my way. Yes, physical goods are vital to produce, but don't forget that most of the value-add of manufacturing is composed of know-how (intellectual property), not raw materials.
And you know what's really fascinating? Check out where intellectual property comes from. It's not from big R&D labs, or giant corporations. It's from little groups, or from individuals.
I happen to believe that America needs to re-focus itself on wealth creation. Wealth comes from productivity - from doing something (worthwhile) better, faster, smarter today than it was done yesterday. The reduction in resources consumed is wealth. That's where it comes from.Finding a way to use underutilized resources to make something valuable is what creates wealth.
Ergo, innovation creates wealth. Not manufacturing, not finance, not marketing. Don't confuse where innovation is used with where it comes from. America must zero in on where innovation comes from, and remove every possible bottleneck to the systematic, high-speed, low-cost production of new ideas.
I hope that helps explain why I think reducing the barriers to innovation is worthwhile.
OK, one more thing. Check out this picture, and this event.
ReplyDeleteTell me humans don't have what it takes to overcome any obstacle. I say we do, and here's my evidence:
Spacelab Launch
Get the right people together, and anything can be done.
Just wondering if anyone has factored in what the copyright laws are doing to innovation? Originally, things were supposed to revert to public domain, to add to knowledge and come back in different forms. We still can't touch most stuff from the 20s, thanks to longer and longer terms for copyrights. Maybe they might want to rethink that, especially here in the US. People have become afraid to discuss a lot of things for fear of the copyright police (which live on a lot of internet lists.)
ReplyDeleteouterbeltway:
ReplyDeleteA co-worker of mine told me over lunch recently that much of our knowledge of the rockets that took us to the moon has been lost. I thought that sounded crazy on its face; but I lacked the ability to refute his argument.
Have we lost a lot of scientific know-how in rocket building? And is that why Bush is wanting us to go back to the moon?
teri:
ReplyDeleteThere has also been a lot of abuse of the patent laws during this last 8 years. Drugs that should have been on the open market available for generics has been allowed to be "re-patented" (e.g. the "Purple Pill").
This isn't healthy, either.
Outerbeltway;
ReplyDeleteMove out of the way to where? Mars? The bus that is coming will smash the whole planet, and emerging economies are flooring the gas. Blasting expensive gizmos into low orbit isn't going to change anything. The Earth can't support 9 billion humans. We simultaneously demand more of the Earth while diminishing its capacity to sustain life. I think we can all see where this is going.
Jason B
I don’t make the rules for this blog—however much I might like to(!) So saying I would add that whereas I rarely turn to the comments section of the blogs that I do visit, this is the one notable exception. Primarily because the comments generally display a knowledge of commerce, finance and economics to an inordinately high degree. In a word: quality. One of the pleasures of reading the regular posters (commentators) on Sudden Debt is to discover how civil the whole exercise is plus adding considerably to one’s understanding of the subject matter in question.
ReplyDeleteConsider: inter-correspondence polemics (i.e. debates between comments contributors) though potentially spawning other scintillating debates also unfortunately run the risk of spawning little more than noise.
For this reason I must say that I think comments which do not directly address the issue at hand (and I have been guilty of this) but instead move to a dialogue between commentators tends to what might be called the “troll effect” i.e. where the comments pages collapse into an obscene brawl (both literally and figuratively—and not unusually towards the scrag end of the comments pages) of the sort one most often witness on blog comments pages generally.
Most notably in this regard I would site James Kunstler’s otherwise commendable “Clusterf**k Nation” [http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/] the comments pages of which are presently out with all control of the estimable poster himself—and by his own admission (though there may be some element of Schadenfreude thereby). Let us hope Hellasious’s does not follow suit and I shall exercise every restraint to that end(!)
Have we lost a lot of scientific know-how in rocket building?
ReplyDeleteRight off I would say...No. What silly nonsense.
But it might depend just a little bit on what you mean...
Apollo was liquid-fueled, like the Shuttle main engines today. In contrast, the boosters, with their troublesome O-rings, are solid fueled. There are other types of space propulsion.
Of course it is true that without a commitment to go the next step in space, e.g. a manned trip to Mars, there probably has not been as much new knowledge gained as there otherwise would have been.
And this is certainly true of engineering know-how. It would be a tremendous engineering challenge to send men to Mars and bring them back. Many problems would have to be solved -- i.e. 'know-how' amassed. Including propulsion.
There is active research into space propulsion:
Spacecraft propulsion
Emerging Possibilities for Space Propulsion Breakthroughs
NASA - Advanced Space Transportation Program
But without any concrete realization plans the engineering know-how will not be amassed.
Spyware:
ReplyDeleteI accept the rebuke. I will endeavor to stay on-topic.
Best regards,
OB
Dear spyware,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your comments regarding comments. I don't mind some off-topic discussion within the bounds of the blog's general content, but I regard civility is a must.
Regards,
H.
...The shift under way feels to some analysts like a cultural inflection point, one with huge implications for an economy driven overwhelmingly by consumer spending.
ReplyDelete____________
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