Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Two Notable Events

A blog entry in the original sense: a personal journal of notable events.

  • My jaw dropped when I saw that Mr. Bernanke asked lenders to forgive part of mortgage loan debt. His reasoning is that home equity would thus be bolstered and homeowners would have less reason to walk away from their upside-down homes (jingle mail). I don't think a central banker has ever done this before and it shows how deeply he is worried. As I have repeatedly said, his biggest fear is a "liquidity trap" and his suggestion shows we are getting dangerously close to it.
===> Quick calculation: there are $10.5 trillion in home mortgages outstanding; 3.1% of the mortgages held by commercial banks only, were already delinquent in 4Q2007. Assuming the delinquency rate is the same for all mortgages - a very big if, given that securitization moved many low quality loans off the banks' books - and that delinquency will peak at 5%, the total delinquencies will come to ~$500 billion. What percentage of that amount should the banks forgive to make it worthwhile for the borrowers to keep paying? I don't think anything less than 20% will do the trick in the most heavily affected areas. That's $100 billion right there - can the banks sustain such a hit, on top of the hits they've already taken to their balance sheets? And will such forgiveness push other, borderline borrowers to default, hoping to get their mortgages reduced, too?
  • Municipal auction rate bond failures are at 70%. Translation: the credit crunch is spreading out to envelop the "official" sector of the credit market, i.e. these are government bonds we are talking about. The cause is quite simple, in my opinion: debt destruction - current and upcoming - has removed a lot of so-called liquidity from the financial system, i.e. there is less money to go around. Add the ongoing zero/negative personal saving rate for Americans and we are left with yet another financing hole. I wonder if foreigners will keep filling it, or eventually throw in the towel and look for better things to do with their savings.

36 comments:

eh said...

...and it shows how deeply he is worried.

I guess. He managed to pull it off with a straight face, though. A blanket program of debt forgiveness; I have less respect for the guy every day. I guess he played paper, scissors, rock to decide that banks and MBS investors ought to pay the price instead of their co-conspirators, the homebuyers. At least the MBS investors probably bought the AAA rated paper in good faith, unlike many of the homebuyers who lied about their income etc etc.

Anonymous said...

With the world running low on resources consumption must inevitably decline and so the need for the ocean of liquidity sloshing around the world's financial markets will become superfluous. As you've pointed out previously the era of permagrowth is permanently over and we have now entered the deleveraging phase of the long emergency; the next step will be the depopulation phase.

Yoski said...

Banks are not really left with too many options here. They can throw the bums out on the street and sell REO at fire sale prices. Here in Miami they usually take a 50% haircut on foreclosure sales. That drops the comps even further, more people walk, even more REO on their books.
The only alternative is to reduce their payment/mortgage and put a lien against the house in case it ever sells for what is owed. The hope is that the suckers keep on making some reduced payment instead of walking.
I think it's a great plan as long as it doesn't cost the taxpayer one cent. Banks were stupid, they need to learn an expensive lesson. One that will last for generations to come.
I "loaned" a vagrant that hangs around in my neighborhood $5. He swore by his mother's life he'll pay me back. Ya think I am going to see that money ever again? Banks did the exact same thing except that they were throwing money with a big shovel at deadbeats. No money down, no income verification. What in the world did they expect the outcome would be? Now they are getting cautious, too little too late.
Home prices will decline for the forseeable future due to a combination of foreclosures, credit crunch and over supply. In Japan it took 16 years for real estate to find a bottom and 5 years in Clownifornia when they had their mini bubble in the early 90s. Right now we're in the 3rd year of the bust, it's going to be a long rocky road.

Sue said...

If someone can help me understand - Muni's are going for a 70% yield? If that's the case then why are people putting their money in CDs or even stocks?

Hellasious said...

No, munis are NOT going for 70% yield. Pls. read the article linked..

Ben Bittrolff said...

What if, as I think, the banks can't forgive mortgage debt? Tier 1capital ratios are already heavily stressed as evidenced by the data I pulled from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Lious.

Just think. If the muni market is indeed collapsing due to lack of available liquidity, then by definition the banks can't afford to take the hit they would have to take should they choose to forgive mortgage debt.

Dink said...

*Besides the gut-wrenching financial implications to the banks, it would be a bureaucratic disaster. We'd have to cut down every tree in Oregon to provide enough paper for the lawyers.

*So between 1984 and 2006 13 auctions failed. Yesterday 521 auctions failed. To a layperson such as myself this seems bad.

*Thai- do you have a favorite website for this econophysics data? I like the Pinker/game theory articles. The fractal stuff had me running for the nearest tree like a screeching chimp though. I'll keep trying, though :)

Anonymous said...

I was shocked by BB statement which made me even more concerned about the fate of the banking system and our immediate economic future. It reminds me of the leaked SIV bailout plans which open the floodgates for the media to begin to understand that maybe we really have a big problem on our hands!
My guess is that BB and the rest of the political establishment may cause the bank runs and other run to the hills behavior that they so clearly want to avoid but really doesn't BB's idea's sound like FIRE in a crowded room with only one small exit?

Thai McGreivy said...

Dink--I cannot recommend many websites-- all my knowledge on these fields comes from books.

The best comprehensive book I have ever read on these subjects is The Origin of Wealth by Eric Beinhocker.

But are you really looking for websites on econophysics or evolutionary psychology?

The subjects of:
-Game theory
-Morality
-Human primate behavior
-Behavioral genetics
-Risks vs. benefits of cooperation and non-zero sum economics

are classic evolutionary psychology subjects. Economics is woven into these subjects so far as the subjects all deal with explaining why evolution selects for cooperation over individualism (it improves resource accumulation). Yet the economics is of a personal, non-macroeconomic, variety.

The best book I have seen on evolutionary psychology is Moral Animal by Robert Wright. In truth there are many famous writers in this area including Richard Dawkins, Steven Pinker, Stephen Jay Gould.


Once you start talking about larger systems (the kind of stuff Hell does when prediciting CDO markets, etc...), you are talking about complexity science-econophysics. This field will overwhelm you with ideas like fractals, or hysteresis bounded systems.

So if you do not like Fractals, etc.., you may not like econophysics.

But if you are looking for econophysics information, probably the largest research center for econophysics in the world is The Santa Fe Institute.

Website.

Anonymous said...

some bits from Farm.com on the US and Canda crisis:

"Liquidation has begun. We will now find out how many sows can be killed a week. In discussion with sow slaughterers and sow producers, we learned that the sow slaughter is committed three weeks out. Sows were touching 8 - 9? lb. One sow buyer was offered a herd for free if they would take ownership immediately. They declined, as they had no place to go with them. $5.00 corn has triggered a huge liquidation. Losses are mounting. Some people see no future and some cannot take the losses."

" Losses of $40.00 per head are common fodder of conversation. Some are hedged or bought ahead on grain, soy meal and hogs. Most are not. We heard from production systems that told us of losses of over a $1 million a week. It?s ugly. Money is being lost at a faster rate per head than it has ever been made."

" We believe that we are liquidating 10,000 sows per week in Canada-USA. Production is declining as rapidly as we can kill the sows. The liquidation rate could be limited by capacity to kill the sows."

"One feed company told us that they identified 13-15,000 sows of the customer base liquidating or on the brink."

This situation is going on all over the world and will have huge implications in Asia which is very welded to pork production for food.

http://www.farms.com/swine/freecommentary.asp?commentaryid=5561

Anonymous said...

Sorry about the sow post put it on the wrong board!!! LOL

yoyomo said...

The sow post may have been inadvertent but it most certainly was indicative of the collapse that may be in store more generally. A while back someone posted a link to an article on GenerationalDynamics about the downturn being so severe that even the financial markets would cease to function. At the time it seemed so far fetched I didn't take it seriously or copy down the link. Now I wish I had because the most alarmist predictions a la James Kunstler and Michael Panzner seem to be creeping closer and closer. In such a scenario would ownership control (ability to buy or sell) be lost at any price. How about the ability to take delivery of share certificates to prove title; that seems to be an issue with Jim Sinclair. Would gold owned through StreetTracks GLD be safe or can we expect that to be the next vanishing act of people's savings. Any pointers would by appreciated.

Italian said...

Today ECB left again rates at 4%.
This is really a "though stance", given the mounting political pressures in europe to drop rates in order to lower the exchange rate with the $.
Dollar dropped to almost 1.54 against euro.
No wonder muni auctions failed to attract investors: how can bonds denominatd in a freefalling currency be attractive at current rates?
Bernanke... does he know what he is doing anymore? Tug tug and finally the brick jumped off the table in the face of US economy.

Anonymous said...

I'm a novice in all of these and enjoy the learning. To yoyomo and others. About Oct/Nov 2007 when I got ~80% of my 401K stuff into cash (yes, I know dropping, but wanted something to drop less than equities and like I said, I'm a novice), I also got stock certificates for my several 1,000 shares of AT&T, Verizon, CocaCola, Daimler when it was Daimler/Chrysler (my way of owning a Mercedes) and some other lessers (at least I've got some paper with some pretty pictures and some ink, not something digital). I have wondered about the gold investors. Is that all digital and easily.....lost or do they have several ounces/pounds they carry around in their pockets? What percentage of gold investors actually have coins/bullion versus a digital holding?

Brant, Atlanta, GA

Anonymous said...

yoyomo:

I am a big fan of this blog and follow the farm industry very close which for some reason the finacial press doesn't understand. Our food supply chain is all based on cheap imputs not only direct materials such as feed but energy cost which is the major driver when you look up and down the supply chain. We have become big exporters of pork/chicken to Asia and their ability to pay and our ability to produce on a vast scale is quickly deterioting as imput cost cause huge holes in the supply chain. Here is a follow up post I made on another blog.

"Chickens there are no shortage of. I understand the issues with N. American producers. That will sort itself."

Let me give you a quick view about Chickens! Chickens that provide daily eggs for market are not even sent to slaughter at the end of their egg laying life which is about 12 months because their weight just over a pound does not provide enough value for the process. So they are killed and buried.
Now fryers or what you find at the market as chicken, is really a very young bird maybe two months old that has been fed in a special environment that keeps the lights on 24hrs a day so they keep eating and growing. So in 6 to 8 weeks we can produce a chicken for market.
The problem is we need an egg to produce that chicken first! In order to do that we have to keep both the Granparnets and Parnet generation around, and they eat all the time and drive up the cost to produce that one fryer. So as the cost of grain continues to climb along with energy then the support to keep the fryer breeder population going gets to expensive to maintain and overall production of fryers decline.
Our Ag supply system is based on cheap imputs and cheap energy and the consumer cannot double the cost of their food bill every so often and still keep buying all those other consumer goodies we expect like housing, car etc.

Anonymous said...

I'm intrigued by what's going on in agriculture, which seems to have some grim undercurrents that are not getting much attention outside the rising commodity prices. What are some good blogs (or other sources) to get a sense of what's going on?

Dink said...

*Farm.com anon- I'm glad you posted here. Its all related. Vegetarians have tried to convert carnivores with the compassion argument. No dice. Then they tried the environmental argument. No dice. It looks like price may be the argument that works.

*Brant- I went cash too. I certainly understand how cash could backfire, but it seems to me that it would be last fail in the chain of collapse (gold hoarders-please don't yell at me, I can't be convinced).

*Thai-thanks for the info. I spent some time on edge.org. You're right that the evolutionary psychology is more to my taste than the complexity models, but I'll keep an open mind to any data which could improve the human condition. Back to Maslow's hierarchy, I think someone has to reach a certain physical/emotional safety before they realize that cooperation benefits them more than selfishness. Maybe the mathematicians will find a pattern in the numbers that proves this.

*Readers- "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell is a must. It shows how easy it is for your mind to lie to itself. Uncomfortable.

Anonymous said...

I don't know about any farm related economic driven blog, my info is based on personal knowledge about the Ag industry ( i grew up in it) and my interest in financial issues which brought me to this Blog. Overall the American public has no concept of how food arrives at the table other then a disneyland view of farming. I am afraid that with these higher energy costs our food supply system which is based on cheap imputs will not be able to deliver adequate supply of food not only in this country but to emerging markets as well that have low per capita GDP making basic food almost out of reach for many in the world.
Vegetarian do enjoy lower cost vs meat conversion food supply but in order to produce the supply at reasonable cost requires significant energy output throughout the supply chain so it does afford some relief going forward but we cannot escape the impact of higher energy prices all the same.

Thai McGreivy said...

@Dink who said... "I think someone has to reach a certain physical/emotional safety before they realize that cooperation benefits them more than selfishness"

I used to think this way too, but the more I have read on evolutionary psychology, the more I have come to realize reality is much more complex. Think of all the cooperation involved in the world wide slave trade or in today's illegal drug economy. The economic benefit of cooperation is so powerful, enemies will work together.

But distrusting relationships are less efficient than trusting one (the reason great leaders focus on trust), and people/organizations/societies outcompete thru efficiency. So trust is strongly selected for.


Also FYI-- the 'price' of benefiting from trust, is 'the risk' of betrayal from someone you trusted. Trusting relationships can be much more damaging that non-trusting ones precisely becasue we let someone we trust into our defense network. Just think of the rogue traders who loose billions of un authorized money-- all permitted becasue the organization trusted the trader with sums of money they would never have trust to you or me).

This is why we also strongly select for the ability to recognize things about others that would prevent us from trusting them. Trust/falsehood sensing abilities are some of the most highly evolved abilities humans have.

All this in a never ending 'arms race'.

Regards

Thai

OkieLawyer said...

Anonymous:

Sorry, but forgive me for being ignorant. What are inputs?

Anonymous said...

So it is becoming obvious that the system is becoming more and more unstable. Chaos Theory in full techni-color real life. The Law-of-Unintended-Consequences rising from the grave like Dracula to suck wealth into a vortex of pain and death.

Like they say, "You just can't make this stuff up!"

Glad I panicked in 2004. IMO the system is going to sieze up soon and then it is going to get interesting.

Anonymous said...

Okielaw: Normally I use it to describle front end costs, feed, livestock, energy, rented buildings or land, transportation,
labor. Those items that are used to create the business model.
These are factory farms with large volume livestock operations.
Calif has dairy operation with 6K to 10K cows: chicken ranchs with several million birds, cattle feed lots work on very small margins.

yoyomo said...

Anon@3:16
Please describe what you think a seize-up would look like. I've read some scary stuff about people losing everything when the system simply ceases functioning. Do you invision assets completely disappearing from brokerage accounts like 1000 shares of Exxon or 100 oz. of gold from StreetTracks GLD account. Jim Sinclair of jsmineset.com makes a big issue of getting physical certificates for stock and taking delivery of gold. There was an article on GenerationalDynamics (I lost the link unfortunately) that predicted a total breakdown of the system.

Anyone interested in energy and food there was a good article in Harper's back in 2005(?) "The Oil We Eat". In addition to scarce energy topsoil is also being depleted along with the ground water. The Ogalala aquifer, by far the largest in N.Am., is seriously depleted and water must be pumped up from ever greater depths (takes alot more fuel and much heavier pipes to withstand the pressure). The same is happening in India on a much more severe scale and soon they will be spending all their forex surplus buying food on the world market with the attendent rise in prices for everyone. China is building pipelines to devert water from Tibet that would normaly flow to India, Burma, Thailand and Vietnam. Times are truly about to become alot more "interesting" in the next decade or two especially after the Olympics when China is no longer on its best behavior.

Anonymous said...

yoyomo,

I am not sure in what form the 'system' will seize up. I just know I don't want to be left holding the bag. There are so many criminals running around inside the system that it boggles my mind.

When does someone 'become' a criminal? Not until they commit a crime, of course. However, they are a criminal BEFORE they actually do the crime. So when I literally SEE criminals getting away with crimes then I start thinking that others who are not criminals may be criminals in the future I don't know who to trust.

I would rather my wealth be buried and forgotten after my death than leave it for the vultures. I worked very hard in rain, mud, sleet, hail, and many, many absolutely beautiful days to earn it and in return it gave me CHARACTER. Let my children earn their own character. To my knowledge it can't be inherited or brought with money.

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