Monday, April 28, 2008

Empty Homes

The Census Bureau announced its quarterly housing data yesterday. The homeowner vacancy rate moved to 2.9% in the first quarter of 2008, the highest reading since 1956 when records started.

Worse yet, as the number of housing units in the country increased by 2.1 million units from a year ago, vacancies also rose by a huge 1 million units, affected by rising foreclosures. For comparison, here is a chart with prior years' increases in housing units and vacancies.

Putting it into dollars, at least $200 billion in housing capital became idle in just one year. This amount likely understates reality because it reflects national median prices, whereas vacancies are higher in the West and South where houses are more expensive. For example, the homeowner vacancy rate is 2% in the Northeast, but 3.2% in the West.

15 comments:

eh said...

Not to worry. There'll be a 2nd half housing recovery. I know because I hear it on TV all the time.

yoyomo said...

I think America might be entering a rerun of The Grapes of Wrath (minus the mobility and the untapped frontiers) and next winter we will be seeing middle income families taking in boarders to help pay the tax and utility bills on their homes. There have been so many articles about adult children (even middle-aged ones) being forced back home and last Friday in USAToday there was an article about a utility in Minnesota & Wisconsin with 19% of its customers facing disconnect notices for non-payment of their electric bills.

If anywhere near that number get disconnected it's the beginning of the end of the grid as fewer rate payers must shoulder the fixed costs and more of them can't pay the now much higher fees and so they get disconnected until it becomes cheaper to have your own generator and everyone disconnects from the grid. This is exactly the scenario that Matt Savinar has been predicting for the past 4 or 5 years at:

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

marcus said...

The head cheer-leader to allay fears about the economy today:

(President Bush aimed Tuesday to address mounting anxieties about U.S. economic problems as energy prices soar and more Americans lose their homes in foreclosures.)

Back to my ill stated argument about people following the example of a leader in an organization. Does anyone else think there is an unusual amount of deceit and propaganda spewed at all levels of media and business today?

The Foreclosure Hunter said...

we just bought a generator yoyomo...and yes I agree with you marcus about the propoganda in the media but I believe a big part of those "mistruths" comes from ignorance. Statistics can be easily tweaked believe it or not, and if you choose to report on the tweaked version rather than the factual correct data consumers can be misled.
What is rediculous is that the media/government/Bush give so little credit to the public. How 'bout just state the truth, let everyone figure out how best to take care of their families, and work on a REAL solution without the red tape & piles of policies.
Survival of the fittest can't happen without all the facts.

Ben Bittrolff said...

Empty Homes? Try entire ghost towns.

Slow Motion Housing Crash: UK, Spain

More Ghost Towns

Lyon Jewett said...

I can tell you from the front lines it's tumble weed city in the residential mortgage business....and there is no end in sight.

I yelled through my office the other day and I heard at least three echoes...

dink said...

I grew up in San Diego. Lots of family, in-laws, friends still there. Used to get into high-spirited debates about the rise in property values. But not anymore. (I'm sure many on this blog have felt the Curse of Cassandra).

Yoyomo-
19%!!! Next winter......

Marcu-
He blamed everything on Congress in his address today (go figure). And I agree the news has gotten extra seedy. Didn't Rove set up some system where he e-mails "talking points" everyday to the right-wing broadcasters? The Daily Show often shows montages of 5-6 different news personalties using the exact same phrases as each other.

yoyomo said...

Marcus,
It is impossible for me to believe that all of this is nothing more than garden variety greed or incompetence. There has been a well orchestrated campaign since the early 70's to concentrate power in the hands of the cognoscenti by any means necessary. The godfather of this movement was Leo Strauss who exhorted his followers to use obfuscation, deceit or intimidation to accomplish their goals.

The consolidation of the media in fewer and fewer hands has progressed steadily since the 80's and if not stopped by public opposition will continue. The media now is totally under the control of corporate, neoconservative and banking interests and will push any lie to further its master's benefit.

You might want to check out the movie Zietgiest, it's of a conspiratorial bent and maybe not everything in it is accurate but the broad outlines are exactly what is going on in this country. It's available on the web, just google it.

One example is that of movie maker Aaron Russo who got to know one of the Rockefellers who in a moment of drunken mirth tipped Russo off about 9/11 & the war on terror months before it happened.

Google "Aaron Russo & Nick Rockefeller" and see what comes up. BTW Russo is now dead of cancer but their are chemicals that will induce cancer if you're willing to wait a few months for your problem to be solved.

yoyomo said...

Dink,
It was in USAToday, not exactly some leftwing rag. Xcel Energy is the utility and the article is titled:

"Unpaid Utility Bills Soar As Economy Sags"

Mane The Mean said...

There is one thing I do not understant. When someone walks away from his home (either sends the keys in or gets foreclosed), how come that increase the number of vacant homes by one? They have to go on living somewhere, I assume. Or are they going to share home/condos/houses with relatives?

Unsympathetic said...

Don't forget, Hell -

A good part of the reason so much housing "capital" is empty is because banks are not letting their REO go for any offer... they're also waiting for the greater fool.

Buddy put in an offer on a condo in Chicago (listed at 215, he offered 160 and then 175) and was rejected. The owner? Wachovia. He offered 160 an hour after they wrote down $2B.

Anonymous said...

Unsympathetic,

Being a denizen of the Windy City, I wonder what Wachovia is/was on the hook for on that property. Were they trying to recover the entire amount of the mortgage balance? Maybe pick up a couple of extra bucks?....Just curious..

Jan

berto said...

Manufacturers of heavy construction equipment are being particularly hard hit by the current record prices of commodities, such as steel, oil, iron ore and rubber. Yes. we have a great industry. I want to buy this equipments at komatpillar.com

Anonymous said...

Are you looking for Wholesale Specials every week? Did you know? wholesalechina wholesaleHohotrade brand is known for its bestMP3 playerprice & quality ratio available in the entire wholesale industry.MP4 playermp4 watchesGive us Hohotrade.com a notice if you need to purchase your wholesale special products by the case.psp accessoriesWe have the best deals around.wedding dresseswedding dressAsk about our upcoming Holiday Specials.wholesale digital cameraswholesale clothingthis section is for our expanded wholesale area. wholesale shoeswholesale t shirtsWe select the all the category wholesale specialwholesale furnitureMemory Cardproducts really nice cause you won't be disappointed!Memory Stickwholesale atvChoose the wholesale specials products from a variety of styles,wholesale jewelrywholesale handbagsbrand labels and size.Wholesaling is the sale of products or merchandise to retailers,Men's outerwearWomen's outerwearto industrial, commercial, institutional,Mens outerwearskin care productsor other professional business users,wholesale mp3wholesale mobile phonesor to other wholesalers and related subordinated services.Hohotrade is one leading worldwide wholesaler in this field.digital camera wholesaleThousands of quality merchandises and big brandwholesale electronicsbluetooth headsetname products are available here at wholesale price.consumer electronicsStart your wholesale sourcing here from today to wholesale silver jewelrygps devicesexperience best service and fast shipping.

Anonymous said...

A片,aio,av女優,av,av片,aio交友愛情館,ut聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,色情聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,080聊天室,視訊聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,上班族聊天室,成人聊天室,中部人聊天室,一夜情聊天室,情色聊天室,情色視訊,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,視訊,免費視訊,美女交友,成人交友,聊天室交友,微風論壇,微風成人,sex,成人,情色,情色貼圖,色情,微風,聊天室尋夢園,交友,視訊交友,視訊聊天,視訊辣妹,一夜情,A片,A片

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,按摩棒,跳蛋,充氣娃娃,情境坊歡愉用品,情趣用品,情人節禮物,情惑用品性易購,A片,視訊聊天室

免費A片,AV女優,美女視訊,情色交友,免費AV,色情網站,辣妹視訊,美女交友,色情影片,成人影片,成人網站,A片,H漫,18成人,成人圖片,成人漫畫,情色網,日本A片,免費A片下載,性愛

A片,色情,成人,做愛,情色文學,A片下載,色情遊戲,色情影片,色情聊天室,情色電影,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,免費視訊聊天室,一葉情貼圖片區,情色,情色視訊,免費成人影片,視訊交友,視訊聊天,視訊聊天室,言情小說,愛情小說,AIO,AV片,A漫,av dvd,聊天室,自拍,情色論壇,視訊美女,AV成人網,色情A片,SEX,成人論壇

情趣用品,A片,免費A片,AV女優,美女視訊,情趣用品,A片,免費A片,日本A片,A片下載,線上A片,成人電影,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,微風成人區,成人文章,成人影城,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊色情網站,一葉情貼圖片區,做愛,性愛,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,美女交友,做愛影片

av,情趣用品,a片,成人電影,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,色情,情色電影,aio,av女優,AV,免費A片,日本a片,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,聊天室

情趣用品.A片,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,情色電影,色情遊戲,色情網站,聊天室,ut聊天室,豆豆聊天室,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,免費A片,av女優,av,成人電影,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人網站,自拍,尋夢園聊天室