Monday, April 21, 2008

Heads In The (Tar) Sands

This is a follow-up post on common sense evidence that easily accessible crude oil is in depletion and its relationship to debt and central bank policies.

I just watched a TV documentary about the Alberta tar sands and the way oil is mined by Syncrude. Some facts:
  • The teeth of the giant shovels that scoop up the tar sands have to be replaced every 12 hours. That's a lot of steel to chew through in half a day - it surely isn't beach sand...
Photo: Graig Smith
  • Imagine rubbing #40 sandpaper on your skin. Now guess what happens to every pipe, vessel, pump and valve that handles the tar sand slurry. The company has two separate process trains working in parallel, switching from one to the other in order to constantly replace worn parts.
  • The giant 400-ton trucks that carry the sands cost $6 million. Their 3,550 HP engines have to be replaced every two years, at $1+ million a pop. Tires cost $60,000 - each.

When it comes to evaluating resource depletion, deeds speak louder than words. Oil isn't available for the price of a straw stuck in the sand any more. Back when "gushers" were common, easily accessible crude had EROEI of as much as 100-to-1. Saudi crude is now extracted at 10-to-1 and tar sand oil at 5-to-1. We can argue dollar prices forever, but a kilowatt is always a kilowatt. Try this simple thought experiment: instead of thinking of oil prices in dollars per barrel, reverse the point of view and think in terms of barrels per dollar. That is, price the artificial entity (dollars) in terms of the real item (oil). Do you see the difference?

As I see it, our global human society has two choices. We can keep our heads buried in the (tar) sands, perma-consuming until all we have left to bequeath our children are dregs. Or we can stop right now and start moving towards a sustainable regime. The current debt "crisis" is not only a warning sign that we have already consumed too much of our future. It is also a golden opportunity to reverse some of the excess, to un-mortgage humanity's future by letting some of the debt go bust.

In this sense, repeated bailouts by central banks (BOE is the latest addition) are profoundly wrong, misbegotten and ultimately dangerous. Speaking in thermodynamic terms, they are trying to convince us that their kilowatt is worth more than one kilowatt. They are just drilling their heads deeper into the sand, forcing us along for the ride. Unfortunately, we will have to work that much harder to dig ourselves out - assuming we will still have some food left over.

_____________________________________

Note: A reader asked for a book recommendation on Thermoeconomics: Try "The Entropy Law and The Economic Process". It's now on the Amazon bar on the right.

69 comments:

  1. Fascinating, as ever. Thanks.

    I was aware such resources required huge amounts of effort/energy to extract, but the details are even more concerning.

    I really must stop talking about it and actually get some money invested into energy producers. It's hard to see the developed world making significant enough changes until forced to by an energy famine.

    Andrew McP

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  2. H,
    What's the difference between an optimist and a pessimist?

    The pessimist is better informed.

    I share your apprehension but as long as people are watching AmIdol instead of documentaries about tar sands by a margin of 60 to 1 nothing substantial (inconvenient or painful) can be done until it will be too late. The majority of people simply won't suffer sacrifice gladly or willingly until they are forced to.

    I come from a large extended family and if we pooled our resources we could easily establish a viable back-to-the-earth commune in a rural area and be prepared for the worst case scenario. Grow our own food, supply our own water and have enough young men to defend the homestead if it became necessary. Except for one of my sisters they all think I've lost my mind and the two of us can't do it alone.

    It's like a seemingly healthy person being told he has bone cancer and the only to stop the spread is to amputate both legs above the knee. The truth is too painful to bear (that the long march of civilization forward has come to a halt and must now reverse) and people will hold on to the comforting illusion until it is pried from their cold dead hands.

    P.S. I would be skeptical of the documentary claim of the shovel teeth needing replacement every 12 hours. Maybe scraping the gunk off or even sharpening the tips but I've seen shovels in gravel pits and they're pretty indestructible.

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  3. humans are pleasure seeking and pain avoiding. we take pleasure in our currentstandard of living, and will continue to seek it. wee will only change when the pain of changing is less than the pain of continuing on our current path. In other words, we will only switch to more eco-friendly fuel and way of life when it is easier than what we are doing. and by then, it will be too late, as that change will take massive resources.

    there is an enormous amount of energy in our current system, provided by petrochemicals. as those are exhausted, our system will drop down to a less energized state. that will be similar to having a smaller boat - unfortunately, not everyone will fit.


    jason b

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  4. I was aware such resources required huge amounts of effort/energy to extract, but the details are even more concerning.

    Not to mention what it does to the land.

    Clearcut: The Tragedy of Industrial Forestry

    Industrial homebuilding has wrecked large swaths of California. And we are supposed to regret its passing? And try to revive it?

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  5. Hell said... "As I see it, our global human society has two choices. We can keep our heads buried in the (tar) sands, perma-consuming until all we have left to bequeath our children are dregs. Or we can stop right now and start moving towards a sustainable regime."

    As I keep saying, it is and always will be about cooperation.

    ignorance- If you want a recommendation on "thermoeconomics", I recommend The Origin of Wealth.

    The book attempts to synthesize the field of econophysics (for the non-scientist/non-economist) with the purpose of answering the question: "what is wealth in the first place"? Major Topics include:
    -entroy
    -thermodynamics
    -complex adaptive systems
    -evolution
    -ecosystems
    -evolutionary psychology
    -emergent phenomena
    -chaos theory
    -game theory
    -disequilibrium
    -networks theory
    -culture
    -cooperation

    Dink is reading it right now, you can ask him his opinion.

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  6. Hell:

    Another smasher. I find the remarks made by your readers riveting, because of the range of human responses to this problem they offer.
    aMp: I'm gonna invest in the next step - new effort in spite of probs.
    yoyomo: Not enough people will do the thinking, we're toast.
    jasonB: echo yoyomo
    eh: Tar-sand double-dumb via enviro-impact. Bad tactical.

    There are some that are willing to act in spite of the enormous evidence that it'll be too little, too late. There are some that get blasted by friends & fam because the see the train coming, and are shouting in alarm.

    The thing I like the most about you, Hell, whoever you are, is that you keep coming back to the broken well, and trying to fix it. You keep attacking it with facts.

    You're a little light on the "solutions" part of the equation, but you're excellent at pointing out the problems.

    What's needed now, more than anything else, are technical solutions. That's right - technical. Technology to adjust people's expectations about what wealth is - ask W. Lippman if managing expectations is a technology or not. Technical solutions about gathering and storing unconcentrated energy. If you want to talk thermodynamics, focus on that aspect of it. That'll get beyond "it's busted!" and into "now it's fixed!".

    Remember: this ain't criticism, guys. This is one of the few sites I bother to read anymore, after having made the rounds (sky is falling, economy is busted, peak oil, big brother - you name it, I've read it) and I did my share of hyperventilating.

    I'm moving on. I'm building technical solutions, and I'm doing the values adjusting nec to cope in the world-as-it-will-soon-be. I'm finding people that think in those terms, and I'm hooking up with them. The rest of the mouth-breathers will just have to catch up later. There's a lot to be done, and the action is where the do-ers are, not where the wild-gesticulating is.

    ----
    Separately, Thai - I read your online presentation materials (evolutionary psychology). I recommend it to all other observers. Once I get it digested, I'll send you via e-mail something worthy of the effort you made to put it out there. Great, great stuff. I invite you, Thai, to post a link to it, along with a brief synopsis of what it is, and why it's important to have those ideas in one's head.

    OuterBeltway

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  7. Curious Hellasious,

    Ever read the "true story of the bilderberg group?" by Daniel Estulin.

    Highly recommend for you.

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  8. Outbeltway

    thanks! :-)

    I put it together when I realized how poorly most people understand information science, evolution, morality and evolutionary psychology.

    It was actually fairly well received by my Vistage group... I was invited to present it to another group of CEO's in Northern Virginia later this year.

    Just did it for fun.

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  9. M3ANON said...

    To further evidence my point earlier about all the oil "scarcity" I offer the following links.

    The number varies but the U.S. seems to use somewhere near 21 million barrels of oil a day. We could and should use less, sure. People should be encouraged to drive more fuel efficient vehicles and the Big 3 should get some tax breaks to encourage them to build more efficient cars (not that I would support them even then - they want me to buy their product but then force me to pay their employees' health care (Big 3 and UAW support Universal Health Care) as well as pay higher gas taxes (Big 3 last summer telling the Senate committee to raise gas taxes instead of them improving vehicle efficiency) ? No way - I'm an American and live in MI but the Big 3 and UAW are only interested in costing me more $ and keeping as much for themselves as they can grab).

    Sorry for the tirade.

    ANWAR is estimated to have between 4 and 21 BILLION barrels of oil - just sitting there absorbing caribou excrement.
    http://www.anwr.org/backgrnd/potent.html

    The Bakkan formation IN the U.S. is estimated to have 3 to 4 BILLION barrels of oil.
    http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911&from=rss_home

    So why can't mean ol' "Big Oil" go get these oil deposits? Agendas, Environmentalists, and Animal-Rights/Nature Nuts. Blue Meanie "Big Oil" are villified while we send $ by the ton to Canada (not to bad), Mexico (not to bad), and the Middle East and elsewheres (not to ... "!?!").

    Let Evil "Big Oil" start tapping the Black Gold here - tax breaks for more fuel efficient cars and more domestic Oil diggin' while we work on the Alternative Energy future (you can spend a trillion on Wind Farms now but it don't put gas in my Ranger XL NOW!)

    Please excuse the wordin', bolds, and caps, folks. I'm just havin' fun but am also a bit tired of the lack of sense and political shenannigans.

    Enjoy the day.

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  10. I've thought (hoped) that perhaps the financial crisis will be severe enough, deep enough, and long enough to force everyone to re-evaluate where we are headed as planet. The current path is not sustainable but it will take an enormous amount of pain before people really being to question the status quo. Perhaps a major depression could be the impetus for such a rethinking?

    Like Hercules cleaning the Augean stables we need a flood to clear out all the detritus that has built up in the financial world. My hope is that a few years of reckoning may result in the end of the era of consumption and start an era of sustainability.

    Unfortunately the pain a few years of depression would inflict would be severe, particularly on the poor and those least equipped to deal with it. And its quite possible, maybe probable, that the powers that be will only end up with more power and control leaving us all in a worse off situation.

    If we do experience a global financial calamity, I see it as a last chance for us to set things in the right direction before it becomes impossible to do so. I realize that some would argue that moment has already passed.

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  11. Does anyone know if you can get this blog on Kindle?

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  12. Interesting facts, I was aware of the massive amounts of natural gas and water required to separate the tar sands, but I didn't know about the wear it put on the heavy machinery.

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  13. Hel: "Or we can stop right now and start moving towards a sustainable regime."

    There's the rub--how to stop. And if WE stop how do you "stop" India and China?

    Its the classic problem of the commons. How do you enforce compliance in a global economy?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
    Tragedy_of_the_commons

    One solution is what Hel has mentioned in the past, a Manhattan like project to achieve renewable energy. Absent this we march toward war over resources and resource depletion.

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  14. Nice post, but those tires cost a lot more than $60.00 per. Multiply that amount by 10 times or more and that would at least be in neighborhood of the correct price. Oil is on the way out, folks any kind of oil, sour, sweet and tar sands, except for use in plastics and fertilizer.

    There are technologies coming on line in the next two years that will completely displace oil for home heating and cooling and to the extent that auto manfacturers begin to employ electrical recharge methods, personal transportation. I know it's hard to believe, but the oil age will be a quaint memory in a decade or so, and not because we don't have enough of it.

    Here is a taste of what I am talking about-google oceanstar technologies.

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  15. Bravo marcus-- now we see eye to eye! :-)


    And the thing I am not sure you see (can't tell from your response) is that the tragedy of the commons never comes from a central organization/government/entity/etc... (just like The Grameen Bank has never required a governement entity to worry about repayment).


    The solution to the tragedy of the commons has always been an an emergent property of the system itself. The commons will enforce the rules itself (emergence) if a few rules are met. Start the video at 10:30 sec (though all of Rheingold's www.ted.com talk is quite good).

    This is why I keep stressing over and over and over to the point of boredome: look at the science of evolution/game theory/chaos theory, etc... The answers to our dilemmas are quite clear-- cooperation. Cooperation is the source of all our wealth. Rich societies are rich because they cooperate, it is that simple.

    We must all look ourselves in the mirror, solution will not come from anyone else.

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  16. @Edwardo,

    Europeans use a decimal instead of a comma in large numbers. $60.000 in European notation is $60,000 in American notation.

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  17. Hell,

    You are presenting one-sided argument about tar sands. Yes, they are expensive to extract no doubt, but their availability (at a higher price) will limit the crude price to go to infinity.

    Anyway, there is a cheaper way to find more crude oil - reduce margin of all crude futures. A speculative bubble knows no limit.

    G.

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  18. Thanks, thai.

    What are you thoughts on it dink?

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  19. "ANWAR is estimated to have between 4 and 21 BILLION barrels of oil ...

    The Bakkan formation IN the U.S. is estimated to have 3 to 4 So why can't mean ol' "Big Oil" go get these oil deposits? Agendas, Environmentalists, and Animal-Rights/Nature Nuts. "

    Add in another 10 billion barrels of the coast of Clownifornia for good measure. Now we got about 35 billion of untapped reserves if we're lucky. OK, now assume we give big oil the green light to go out there and drill to their heart's contend. At 21 million barrels a day that gives us about 4.5 more years of consumer mania, and happy SUVing. After that we'll be in the same bad situation we're in right now minus the resources we just blew. (I know, it's a gradual process, but for sakes of throwing up some numbers)
    Unless we learn how to use oil wisely I see no point in opening those areas up for drilling, it will just postponed the inevitable for a few more years.
    What's most frustrating is that even now our politicians and the public in general are more concerned about flag burning, gay marriage, abortion, failed speculators and American Idol than they are about energy. Once we run out of energy the lights go off and we won't have to worry about any of the above any longer.
    "We" will change nothing until the well is completely dry. By then it will be way too late to do any good.
    Personally I stay in shape, ride my bike to work, planted some fruit trees, put new windows in my house, added insulation, a wood stove, ground source heating/cooling system, etc.
    Will it do any good in the end? Not sure, but it beats doing nothing.

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  20. Man, there's dozens of items in these posts that I'd love to debate, but time is not on my side today.

    But I did want to back up Thai's recommendation for Origin of Wealth. Not only is the subject fascinating, but the author is really skilled at presenting an argument in a very clear and structured way.

    Its truly about evolution (differentiate, select, amplify, and repeat). As "The Selfish Gene" was to nature, this book is to the economy. But where biological evolution took long time periods (generally) and had a neutral "judge" (the ecosystem didn't care what lived or not), economic evolution is frantic and presided over by very self-interested, pattern-recognizing, strategy-forming humans. This has basically created a system that is bordering on complexity that rivals the Amazon rain forest. Its some hideous positive feedback loop where we're not even making investment decisions on a business's fundamental operation, but instead making decisions based on other trader's perceptions, etc. We're chasing that Red Queen.

    Sorry if the above got to be rambling. And I really wanted to further rant on the subject of cooperation (how people need to actively join the coop instead of just being born into a certain region and assumed to consent to whatever gov is in place). Maybe tomorrow :O

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  21. Anon:

    First you say:

    The number varies but the U.S. seems to use somewhere near 21 million barrels of oil a day.

    Then later you say:

    ANWAR is estimated to have between 4 and 21 BILLION barrels of oil - just sitting there absorbing caribou excrement.
    ANWR link

    The [Bakken] formation IN the U.S. is estimated to have 3 to 4 BILLION barrels of oil.
    Bakken link


    Do the math:

    The Bakken formation then equals four thousand million barrels. Divide this by 21 million barrels / day and that comes to 190 days of oil. Even given your best estimate of ANWR, that comes to a total of ~3.5 years of U.S. consumption.

    So then you conclude:

    So why can't mean ol' "Big Oil" go get these oil deposits? Agendas, Environmentalists, and Animal-Rights/Nature Nuts. Blue Meanie "Big Oil" are [vilified] while we send $ by the ton to Canada (not [too] bad), Mexico (not [too] bad), and the Middle East and [elsewhere] (not to ... "!?!").

    Combining this with your implied screed against national healthcare, I take it you have an ideological agenda. But you have to take into consideration the societal costs of health problems due to chemical pollutants in the water supply, farmland, air and other parts of the ecosystem.

    I am not saying don't explore (quite the opposite, actually), but do it in a responsible manner so as not to damage our environment or human health. Some things are more important than profits.

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  22. Yoyomo
    Yeah, it's true about the teeth. In a gravel mine you aren't breaking the rock, just pushing it around. In a place where you are breaking the rock like a drilling rig, you do trip the string every couple of hours, unless you are using diamond tipped drills.
    Those machines are breaking ice and dirt, and the dirt is abrasive. It doesn't slide off the side of the shovel, it grinds the metal like gravel in a glacier grinds the sides of a valley. You can still see the striations where the gravel and ice went down the glacial valleys.

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  23. Great post. I find it amazing how many people cling to technology coming to the rescue or environmentalists standing in the way of US energy independence. It's absurd. That's the point of this essay. People with deep enough pockets to shell out six million dollars on a single dump truck, aren't stupid. Perhaps those with a trillion to invade Iraq are.

    A great thought experiment was described to me recently in this way; if all the 4.7 billion years since the earth was formed could be represented by your arms outstretched from your sides similar to a scarecrow, someone running a file across one of your fingernails would represent the amount of time humans have been in existence. We truly do live in extraordinary times.

    RJ

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  24. M3ANON said:

    Yoski-
    I recognize that even if the estimates are true ANWAR and the Bakken Formation will not last us forever. But that 4.5 years not sending our $ overseas would save us tons of dough. You bet we gotta start conserving and driving more efficient vehicles - but just shrugging off the untapped resources we have as not being worth much after 5 years ignores what we can gain in that 5 years. What can be discovered in 5 years - this is a question unanswered.

    Okielawyer -
    Your math differs from Yoski but I assume this is because Yoski includes other oil deposits that Big Oil is not allowed to touch.
    But even given your 3.5 years what could be accomplished in that time - the $ we'd save, 3.5 years of Alternative Fuels development so that it is not dependent on Federal subsidies, the possibilities are endless. And this is not to mention the needed bump in the economy we'd get from further development of these areas - rairoads to transport the stuff, CAT and other manufacturing making the machines to meet the new drilling and refining needs, the consumer stuffs these newly employed workers would buy (causing jobs) etc. Even 3.5 years cannot be underestimated.
    You also seem to assume that any kind of drilling will cause pollution and health hazards to the point of mass human suffering. This is a baseless assumption - in fact the few most recent Big Oil Pollution stories have more to do with transporting the stuff than actually drilling for it.
    And finally my stance against Universal Health Care is not "idealogical" - it is in response to the facts and conclusions of this kind of "superior care".

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  25. Anon @ 5:57,

    You and possibly a few others may be interested in this post (and comments) from 27 August, 2007, The Oil Drum: Canada -

    A New Method of Extracting Heavy Oil: Toe to Heel Air Injection (THAI)
    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2907

    Which certainly appears, and apparently has tested as, a much more efficient in-situ recovery method than water hungary steam assist or vapor extraction with solvents.

    Not that this solves all problems but does stand as evidence of ongoing development in means to exploit tar sands and heavy oil deposits which, together represent 4-5 trillion barrels of original oil in place.

    Yes, yes, contrary to perpetuation of the failed Fordist regime of accumulation we must move towards and into another and 'another' which is less dependent upon hydrocarbons. But, so long as the social relations of capitalism remain dominant, this will only take place if that new regime provides a sufficiently high rate of profit.

    Green is good; green left is better as it attempts to take these social relations into account and change them.

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  26. Thai,
    The Tragedy of the Commons is a problem introduced by modern capitalism with its insistence on private ownership of property. In traditional societies, before the imposition of colonialism, tribal elders regulated access to the commons so that every member had a share and no one was free to plunder common resources. It was colonial administerations which undermined the authority of the tribal elders and opened the commons to unregulated exploitation.

    W/respect to low defaults at Grameen, the bank makes every member of the borrowing circle co-sign for each other's loan. If one member defaults the credit rating of the entire circle suffers until the loan is paid off.

    For there to be co-operation on a global level every one must be asked to sacrifice but the biggest sacrifice will have to come from those with the most to give, otherwise the under-developed countries will see co-operation as nothing more than a fig leaf for the perpetuation of previously mis-gotten advantage.

    Never underestimate the power of spite and those who feel they're being locked out could very well decide to bring the temple down on everyone's head rather than sit outside shivering (or sweltering but most definitely seething) looking in. If they can't have a shot a decent life then they will probably see little reason to step aside so others can.

    A good example of cutting your nose off to spite your face is the insistence of western companies on selling expensive pollution control technology to 3rd world countries that can't afford to buy it so now California has to suffer air polution drifting across the Pacific from China and it's only getting worse.

    Sure, the Chinese suffer the most but I doubt that brings much comfort to asthma sufferers on the west coast of the US. For the economy of the US as a whole it would probably have been cheaper to donate the know how and allow China and India to utilize the technology domestically with a stipulation not to re-export it.

    Yoski, OuterBeltway,
    I admire your optimism and if the descent is slow and orderly your preperations will serve you in good stead but if there is a sudden collapse the few who were prepared will be at the mercy of the many more who weren't. The only sure fire way to ride out the storm if there is a breakdown is in a fortified commune with enough members w/arms to repel any hungary marauders. I know this is a low probability black swan event but if a domino of mis-steps and blunders leads society to this dead-end few will be prepared or maybe I've just been spending too much time on Jim Kunstler's website.

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  27. Hell,

    I am optimistic that this "solvency crisis" may have a silver lining in that the hard lesson learned may change the thinking of some. Hehe, as one of the posters discussed, I remember having to transpose my "." and "," when writing/reading numerics while I lived abroad. Although I share some of the pessimism discussed here, I believe humman innovation may be the trump card. However, chance favors the prepared mind/society, so we must adapt when someone moves our cheese or when our cheese begins to run out.

    Thai, I have placed OOW on my reading list. I remember seeing all/most of those topics interwound when I read "Jurassic Park" years ago. I still remember programming the Mandelbrot set on my Atari computer even farther back in time. I am familiar with fractal applications in ecomomics. Your thesis seems to be that we are "undercooperating". At what scale do you envision the need for improving cooperation? At the risk of degrading your little grey cells with more boredom, cooperate more how? I am curious as to some of the specifics ;-).

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  28. IF ands and buts were candys and nuts, then every day would be X-mas.
    Seriously, if we would implement a vast array of energy saving measures like:
    - 50+mpg for all personal vehicles, no exceptions for anybody
    - build new electric rail lines and trains that run at 140 mph instead of air travel
    - mandate work from home instead of commute via tax breaks and penalties for corporations
    - public transportation and BIKE LANES
    - alternative energy sources other than ethanol (solar, wind, wave even nuclear)
    - 1 million volt direct current power lines to transport solar generated electricity from Nevada to Chicago or St. Louis
    - mandate building codes to have geo-sourced HVAC system and much better insulation
    Those are just a few for starters. If we need more oil/energy to implement all those changes for a few years, I would say go ahead and use up the remaining resources since they are a wise investment into our future. The way it stands today all it would do is prolong the consumer orgie for a few more years and leave us equally screwed afterwards. That's why I am totally against tapping any new resources.

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  29. M3ANON said:

    Juan-
    Thanks for posting the oildrum blog. I do not know much about the Oil industry or how it is done. But I do know that "Big Oil" has ways of getting and refining oil now that are much more efficient and safer than the Jed Klampett days ("Black Gold - Texas Tea!"). I'm not saying I believe EVERYTHING that "Big Oil" claims but it's their business and they will surrender a lot of dough in fines and bad press if they screw up. Especially since they are the ones that make the gas I use (not politicians, Environmentalists, or other Agendaists) I am a little more willing to listen to their claims of what is possible and what isn't.

    Yoski-
    You offer a lot of if's and but's yourself including some "fixes" that might lead to greater energy loss than what the measures are intended to save (not to mention whether they'd even work - "1 million volt direct current power lines to transport solar generated electricity from Nevada to Chicago or St. Louis" ? That assumption is a bit more in the Theory stage than the Practical, eh?). But you are right - don't just drill in ANWAR and the Bakken formation but make meaningful strides toward other energy resources and fossil fuel efficiency.

    ANWAR and the Bakken Formation - let's just start there and work on alternatives while we save money (and help the economy) - GO TEAM!

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  30. M3ANON said:

    Yoski-
    My apologies. I did not totally read you last post including where you wrote that you were "totally against tapping any new resources". Sorry that my last post put words in your mouth you did not say (write).

    To each his own. Don't rely on my vote. But recovering oil from ANWAR and Bakken will save us dough and buy us time to develop those alternatives you propose - you just can't wave a magic wand and bring undeveloped theories into the Practical stage. Sure - high prices is the Mother of Innovation but our society is at the stage where scarcity and shortages of Oil will sooner cause civil and economic strife. Thankfully we are still at a relatively safe stage - there is time.

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  31. M3ANON
    "... will save us dough and buy us time to develop those alternatives you propose - "
    The problem is that NOTHING is getting done, absolutely nothing. 35 mpg by 2020??? That got to be some kind of sick joke. Of course none of the changes I propose will implement themselves. It would take decades and trillions of $$, I realize that. So far we're not even talking about any energy saving measures. Did you listen to our presidential candidates? Energy is not even on their radar screen. You said drilling in ANWR would be buying time. Time for what? So we can sit on our collective ass for another 4.5 years and go about business as usual? Unless we're dead serious about changes on how we run our economy/society we should leave the oil reserves where they are. Maybe one day when we have a better grasp on reality it will be time to bust the oil piggy bank.

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  32. Vertias and Yoyomo, as UpperBeltway alluded, perhaps you might get a better sense of what I am talking about regarding cooperation by reviewing my blog's PowerPoints (only need review parts I and 2-- part 3 is about how the mind works and how poor it is at understanding most risk/life issues-- I use Mandelbrot and 'the black swan' to make the point).

    Just click my name on this posting and it will take you to my blog... then scroll to the power points (I would give a link but today the hospital's firewall seems to be preventing me from posting blog links).

    Let me know when you've 'read' it and we can discuss my ideas on cooperation more.

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  33. M3ANON said:

    Yoski-
    As I said before I do not think we should drill and leave it at that. The problem is that the U.S. faces a current shortage of affordable gasoline - by recovering and refining what we have we are buying the time (and saving the money) to further develop and make affordable the long-range solutions you propose. There is a pressing need now - and that need will only get worse unless something is done to meet it now. Now is the Reality we face - throwing up our hands and saying it is all lost without even trying to meet current need while further developing future solutions is not a realisitic alternative (it does not even solve either question).

    Please don't take this the wrong way but solutions like everybody peddling to work on their bikes is also not very realistic. You are fortunate enough to live within biking distance to where you work and it also sounds like you can even work from home if you need to (or the arrangements could be made to allow you to do so). Good for you - live that life and enjoy it. But for many of us these are not realistic options - and frankly your proposals do little to help our situations now (long-term yes but some of us, lucky enough to have a job, can't always get there by bike or mass transit. And some of us work in positions that actually require us to be at another physical location).

    ReplyDelete
  34. M3ANON,
    Of course not all solutions will work for everybody. But IF we had more bike lanes more people might use their bikes to get around (works great in Europe). IF we had a public transportation system that actually goes places some people would use...especially once gas hits $5+ a gallon or gets rationed. Some people (like myself) could easily work from home. Instead I HAVE to come to work every day...company policy. I also have to take warm clothing to work 'cos the AC turns this place into an ice box. There's no light switch in my office, the light stays on 24/7. I can't use the stairs to get to a different floor except the ground floor, have to use the elevator. To top it all off, this is a "Green Building", like in environmentally friendly.
    To me the entire society looks like this crack addict that burned through their inheritance (oil in Texas & Gulf), (tried to) robbed innocent by standers (Iraq) and is dragging everything to the pawn shop that is not nailed down (trade deficit). Now we just need one more fix (ANWR) and everything will get better, we promise!
    WRONG! The time to face the music is now. After we implement the necessary changes we can tap the last remaining resources to get our life back in order.
    I am afraid we have to see $10 gas and rationing before the majority of us understands the gravity of the situation we're in.
    Sorry to be so pessimistic, I can only hope to be proven wrong. What I've been seeing so far from our politicians, the media and the guy next door isn't looking very encouraging.

    ReplyDelete
  35. For what its is worth, I am WAY on your side Yoski :-)

    People need to start saving- period.

    It is all about what we subsidize

    ReplyDelete
  36. Edwardo-
    Googled oceanstar tech. Maybe I picked the wrong link since it seems to indicate we should be drilling the ocean floor for more oil. This seems the opposite of ending oil dependence...

    Anon who called those criticizing Big Oil "nature nuts"-
    Free pass for you since I can't think of anything civilized to say.

    Yoski- Good for you in taking charge of your health. Especially if the gov has to raise the retirement age to 75 to keep Social Security viable.

    Yoyomo- Its going to take a lot of people to defend your commune if things go that far south. I wonder if Canada is secretly planning to build a border wall to keep Americans out?

    Marcus, Thai, Co-op discussing posters-

    If people don't voluntarily join a co-op they're going to scream that they're being oppressed. I'm pondering that it would have to be like a club where members agree to live with as similar material goods as possible (as someone mentioned, harder on the rich than the poor). No precious metals or natural gem stones, jeans/t-shirts, 2500 kcal intake a day max, drive no more than 100 miles weekly, no tax benefits for over 2 kids. Just throwing out ideas. Nice thing is that with the internet the club could cross borders.

    ReplyDelete
  37. If the primary goal is reduced petroleum/hydrocarbon consumption, a new mode of transportation must be added.

    If it were up to me, this would be national very high speed (maglev) rail which would become a displacing force. That is, anyone who wants to drive or fly long distance, fine, no problema. But why use these modes when the comfort and speed of a maglev system is available.

    It's my recollection that Argonne National Labs did a cost/benefit type study on this during the early or mid 1990s and found that, if implemented in regional sections, it would become self-financing though, I guess, would not return a sufficiently high rate of return to attract large scale private investment.

    But heck, we seem able to finance high-cost wars.

    Sorry, there I go...

    ReplyDelete
  38. Apparently Hell's Draconian comment zap the other day has worked. Nice range of vigorous debate without rancor here.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Thai,

    Thanks for your response, I read through your powerpoint presentation. Would enjoy discussing it. I am about to move to another state. I will check on this blob in the near future. Take care.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Here on Earth Day is some green energy news:

    Ocean current-powered turbines in the Gulf Stream

    Concentrating solar power (This was discussed this morning on NPR, but I couldn't find a link.

    ReplyDelete
  41. yoyoma
    There are several kinds of pollution control technology. The kind that control the pollution from China that annoys America are old kinds, and are out of patent.
    We have controlled ash from coal power plants since the thirties, and sulfates since the seventies.
    The good news is that while the pollution numbers are going up, the sulfate aerosols are reflecting sunlight and cooling the world to offset global warming from all the CH4 from coal mines and the CO2 from coal burning power plants.
    The sulfates will rain out soon anyway, unfortunately.
    The ash may contain reduced iron that will fertilise the ocean algae and suck up more CO2, but we don't have good data for that effect.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Thai, it's OuterBeltway, not UpperBeltway. I have to work a few more years to get my Upper belt ;)

    So, I'm all rarin' to go to hear more about cooperation. I do see a great deal of promise in that category.

    Where are the mini-max opptys (relatively small input, big bang output) for cooperation? Where is our society hurting the most .and. where is the improved performance potential greatest via cooperation?

    Food? Pollution? Energy? Transport? Innovation? Health care? Debt reduction (that was for you, Hell)...and my favorite: resource allocation! It ain't flashy, but right now, dudes, it's got the mo'.

    So what's everyone think the new "cooperation killer app" is going to be?

    O.B.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Outerbeltway, sorry :-O

    I only have thoughts... and whenever I think on them, there is always a 'gotcha'.

    The problem as I see it is there is 'no free lunch'... Any idea that sounds like a 'good idea' initially always seems to have an equally unattractive aspect as I explore it further (I have a hunch it is part of the whole 'conservation of risk' thing econophysicists talk about).

    Tit for tat (TFT) uses a running memory of reputation. It will implicitly trust an unknown player, cooperating on faith alone. But if you betray TFT- "hell hath no fury".

    Groups will keep their people in line (it is an emergence property). But their is a trade off.

    One obvious solution would be to track everyone's reputation, something like Dink's 'integrity-O-meter' suggestion the other day-- yet if you think on this, the privacy implications are significant (though the reality is that in the Savannah, everyone did know everything about everyone else in their tribe-- AND yet again we all know how closed minded small societies CAN be (think 'The Scarlet Letter'), etc...).


    But in the meantime we could spend more time focusing on people's integrity. That's is what Greenie was trying to point out to Hell, et all the other day-- why worry about Hedge fund managers who were successful, why not focus on the leaders who were sleazie (sold just before their company collapsed, etc...)

    No one really ever gets that upset at Buffett, (even though he is the richest of all) as his integrity is really beyond significant question at this point.

    But if you focus on integrity with on e group (say the rich), you need to focus it on everyone (regardless of income). And the reality I see is that many people in this country are not that concerned about integrity so much as they are concerned their leader represents their agenda. Lots of people want to make excuses for people they see themselves in.

    Religions try to focus around these issues by displacing the 'faith' issue to a 'higher power' (with some success). Being unviewable it will never disappoint, the problem is many people don't think it actually delivers anything either-- except of course the cooperation nexus itself- which most people fail to appreciate).

    Just thoughts. Do you have any?

    ReplyDelete
  44. M3ANON said:

    Yoski-
    Thanks for finally admitting it - you want oil to be unaffordable because you think that is when change will have to come about. You are not being pessimistic - you have a plan (or at least you know what you want to see happen).
    The problem is should gas go to $5+ a gallon the economy will collapse before your Alternative Energy policies can pick up the slack. Even your job will be effected if this occurs - but I suspect that this prospect doesn't phase you either.
    I am suggesting we go get the oil we know we have now so we can buy enough time to further develop the alternatives you propose. We use roughly 21 million barrels of oil a day. By your earlier estimates ANWAR, Bakken, and other sources would give us 4.5 years of extra oil. If you do the math (21 million * $110 per barrel * 365 days) you get over $800 trillion ALONE. But you think saving that much money a year is not worth it? Saving even a quarter of $800 trillion is MORE than worth it.
    Yoski, you want to throw all this potential away and impose inefficient and unpractical alternative energy replacements. You are even willing to send us into Depression to do it. Your agenda is most important. You are smiling Yoski - I know.

    Dink -
    I did not think I had to clarify but "Nature Nuts" are peops that would rather leave 4 to 21 barrels of needed oil in ANWAR because they don't want to make the caribou change their roaming plans. As for myself I prefer the company of trees to most people - but I'm no nut.
    And thank you for not being able to raise yourself to the point of having something civil to say - my time is precious, ya know?

    ReplyDelete
  45. M3ANON said:

    Dink -

    My time is so precious I neglected to type "billion" as in "4 to 21 billions barrels of oil" just sitting there beneath the Vast Nothing which is ANWAR. For crying out loud - do you see how much of my time you are wasting ?

    ReplyDelete
  46. M3ANON,
    That would be 800 billion, not trillion.

    WkWillis,
    I saw that episode on PBS about particulates blocking out the sun. It's depressing to think that the only thing protecting us from worse global warming is pollution.

    Dink,
    I don't want to repel the MarineCorps, 30-40 able bodied men w/arms should be more than enough to persuade random desperados to move on to easier pickins'.

    Thai,
    You're right that integrity is important for all members of society but an unethical cab driver might gyp you on the fare to the airport but he's not going to make off with your pension plan. Those with more power to cause harm must be held to a higher standard.

    ReplyDelete
  47. If you do the math (21 million * $110 per barrel * 365 days) you get over $800 trillion ALONE.

    I have to admit, the number is astounding:

    $843,150,000,000 per year spent on oil alone based on oil @ $110/bbl. Where is all that money going now? The GDP of the U.S. was around $13.794 trillion in 2007. But here are some problems:

    1) If the problem is that urgent, it won't help us much as it will take 3-6 years to the get the oil to the pump due to the limited season you can build pipelines and the timeline eminent domain would take to settle property values.

    2) There are environmental costs to development of oil. (Don't try to tell me otherwise. I work in the oil industry on the Gulf Coast.)
    Houston's air quality is very poor due to the presence of high levels of benzene.


    3) The 3.5 year timeline is based on a best case scenario. If we are able to only get the low end of those estimates, we can extract maybe one year of oil and it would take at least 3 years to get it.

    Tell me M3Anon: who owns the air? Who owns the water? Should we just ignore the environmental costs to fossil fuels as we plunder the earth? Call me one of those environmentalist wackos, but I want clean air, water and land.

    I don't think you fully read what I wrote last time. I actually support exploring the oil in both places; but let's be realistic and responsible in our energy policy.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Yoyomo--
    I absolutely agree that people are not harmed as much by people who rob them ‘a little’ vs. people who rob them ‘a lot’ (your cabbie example); but unless I misunderstand you, the logical conclusion of your position is that people will become more 'trustworthy' as they move into leadership roles simply because the consequences/punishment will increase.
    My ‘push back’ on this is it runs contrary to my own experience. While integrity is certainly modifiable by environment (carrots and sticks do change behavior to some degree), it is also very much an innate part of who a person is.
    The guy who robs you ‘a little’ today is MORE likely to rob you ‘a lot’ tomorrow than the guy who never robs you at all.

    Okie- what about an accident? No intention by the oil explorers to deceive and make a mess, but an honest old fashioned accident? The result is the same.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Thai,
    I don't think we disagree, I'm not excusing the cabbie but the punishment should fit the crime. Someone who shoots you should be punished more severely than someone who gives you a shove.

    ReplyDelete
  50. M3ANON said:

    Okielawyer -
    I understand your concerns about pollution. I understood them in your earlier post as well. I did not mean to imply that recovering oil is a thoroughly clean process - I said that recovering oil is a much cleaner process compared to what it use to be in the 50's and 60's - if you work in the business you know this to be true as well.
    But the 2 places I am referring to - ANWAR and the Bakken formation - are in no way even moderately populated areas. Sure we need clean air and a nice environment to romp around in but you are talking about ANWAR and the Bakkan formation like they are as populated as downtown Houston?

    But you refer to another reason why we need to start developing ANWAR and Bakken now - depending on what happens this November we may be retreating from Iraq. Despite what you, I, or anyone else feels regarding the war when the U.S. leaves there is a very good chance the country will fall to terrorists and the region will be vastly more unstable than it is now. The price of oil will skyrocket to the point that Yoski will scream with glee - but our economy and livlihoods will be changed in ways nobody, in truth, wants to live in. Then is not the right time to start drilling for oil when it takes almost 6 years to get things actually producing - to prepare we must start now (this is why even 3.5 years of production is so important).

    ReplyDelete
  51. Thai,
    One additional point, white-collar criminals are far more deterable than street criminals especially if they are already rich; all you need is an atmosphere of credible deterence.

    Of course I prefer having an honest person to relying on deterent penalties but since only The Shadow knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men I have to insist on severe penalties for those who violate fiduciary duties and the severity should increase comensurate with harm caused.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Yoyomo said... "I'm not excusing the cabbie but the punishment should fit the crime. Someone who shoots you should be punished more severely than someone who gives you a shove."

    Yes!!!!!!!!!!! and more !!!!!!!!!!

    Yoyomo- think about what you just said a little more and you may see (as I do) that within the framework of this seemingly ‘little issue' lies the fundamental paradox life itself (with all its infinite structures including societies and economies, etc...), must deal with.

    Without meaning to sound melodramatic, as I look at the world, this paradox is literally one of those potential candidate answers to that age old question: "what’s the meaning of life?".

    The 'simple' little paradox creates the 'Black Swan' problem in the first place.

    Think about it.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Yoyomo/Thai/Crime & Punishment-

    I believe people should be assumed kin until they prove otherwise. Once they defect there need to be clear consequences.

    Recidivism studies have shown that some criminals are not "fixable". Their decision-making patterns clearly demonstrate a philosophical belief that the suffering of others is unimportant. In the case of physically violent criminals there is too big a risk in ever trusting them in public again.

    In the case of drug dealers and corporate executives perhaps a tattoo on the forehead. Or we can establish an institution like the credit bureaus where potential employers, mates, or customers can pull a history of past legal issues. If shame won't keep them from defecting then perhaps fear of poverty and/or celibacy will keep them in check.

    Yoyomo & desperados-

    I don't know how rural you're thinking, but its going to have be pretty darn inaccessible if you live in a highly populated part of the country. I could make it to western Canadian wilderness pretty quickly and eat salmon for years. BTW, my family thinks I'm insane also :)

    M3anon-

    "you can spend a trillion on Wind Farms now but it don't put gas in my Ranger XL NOW!"

    OMG! An American is being inconvenienced!! Surely the 6B non-Americans on this planet will weep at the tragedy and INSIST that Exxon tear up the planet and pour more carbon into the atmosphere!!

    ReplyDelete
  54. Dink,
    Violent criminals generally have problems with self control that makes them inherently dangerous, they may not be inherently evil per se but their instability under stress means they can't be trusted not to re-offend.

    There are plenty of desolate spreads off the beaten track in Pa. and if gas is in short supply the desperados aren't going to be too mobile. Of course neither will the commune members so large storage facilities (root cellars, ice caves) will need to be incorporated into the design plans.

    The Hudderites live this lifestyle already but they do it for religious reasons (minus the arms).

    Thai,
    You've tapped me out, the well is dry and I'll leave the meaning of life issues for you to ruminate on.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Oh I forgot, I saw "I'm Swiss" (most of it anyway) and unfortunately there's alot to be embarrassed about in the last 7yrs.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Yoyomo-

    Ice caves! I haven't come across this before. I'll have to learn how to build one;)

    BTW, on one of the other sites (wallstreetexaminer?) the readers got on a tangent about living off the land. One reader advised rabbits are better to raise than chickens. They went on to mention that ginea pigs are trouble because inbreeding quickly results in insanity. It really sounded like they were speaking from experience. What a fascinating cross-section of humanity you come across in these blogs.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Dink,
    Perhaps ice cave is not the precise term of art but I'm just refering to a heavily insulated cellar where winter blocks of ice are used to refridgerate perishables during warm weather.

    As for breeding rabbits and such, someday we may all need that kind of knowledge. Have you heard about Jim Kunstler's new book "World Made by Hand", a novel about life post oil age?

    ReplyDelete
  58. Yoyomo,

    I've heard the name Kunstler mentioned a few times on various sites, but I haven't actually read anything yet. If you recommend it, I'll get it. I did buy this book called "When All Hell Breaks Out". Its basically just a few practical tips to live "off the grid" for a few weeks. Isaac Newton conjured up a lot of thought-work while bored in the country while Cambridge shut down due to the plague. Could be a useful sabbatical.

    BTW, sobering posts by you yesterday regarding 1) Bechtel, and 2) metal theft. I think Okie's link was referring to organized crime though. Is the Shrub putting up a "straw man" bad guy to attempt to save his legacy? Hmmm.

    Kudos on your reply to notsoliquid. I was going to reply to the book of mormon currency guy, but I couldn't summon the same subtlety...

    ReplyDelete
  59. Dink,
    Kunstler has a website dedicated to post peak oil and he also deals alot with the fraud on WallSt:

    http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/

    It's considered a doomer site and its die hard followers (each Monday noon post gets 400-600 replies) have their own shorthand lingo (for example UPLA=united parking lot of America).

    The novel is not important for people who are aware of peak oil (I've only read the reviews) but I do recommend it to people who aren't familiar with peak oil and don't have the patience for reading technical material (some people just have to be entertained while they learn).

    W/respect to organized crime, they often run the scrap yards that take in the stolen metal. No legit dealer would buy manhole covers but I understand your point about the article referring to penetration of the financial system. I also think that it's probably just a power grab to spy more. Paul Craig Roberts (Reagan's Ass. Sec. of the Treas.) wrote an article speculating that members of congress are afraid to impeach because of what bushler might have on them, the Spitzer Option.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Yomomo,

    Hoo doggies! That Kunstler site has me itching to buy some solar panels(and quick). I'll check back on him on Mondays.

    That Spitzer-phobia theory sounds pretty possible. Obama did the right thing in writing his first book and putting all his youthful transgressions out in the open. Edwards seems pretty clean too. I hope he gets a VP nomination.

    ReplyDelete
  61. What's so scary? If oil extraction from tar sand is profitable, what is the problem? Is mining or resource consumption a crime?

    Johan

    ReplyDelete
  62. Johan,
    The problem with tar sands is that it is hundreds of times more polluting to extract than conventional liquid oil. Once an oil well is drilled it produces very little pollution but with tar sands every single barrel extracted produces immense amounts of air and water pollution and burns up huge amounts of energy to process.

    The only reason it is profitable is that the natural gas used to cook the tar out of the sand is "stranded" meaning there is no way of delivering it to market and so is used for almost free. If a pipeline were to be built to the gas fields then the price of that NG would jump up to market levels and would be too expensive to use in processing tar sands.

    ReplyDelete
  63. If there are negative externalities, like water and air pollution, why not look for a solution to internalize them? Btw what is a negative externality is subjective and can only be decided by the majority of people.

    The Soviet way to solve the problem is to plan what is meaningful production and not use the price mechanism.

    Johan

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  66. housewife bangers -
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    latin adultery -
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    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
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    my naughty latin maid -
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    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
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    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
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    college fuckfest -
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    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
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    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
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    prime cups -
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    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
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    tamed teens -
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    teens for cash -
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    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
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    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
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    naughty allie -
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    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
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    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
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    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
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    naughty drive thru -
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    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
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    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
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    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
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    wild fuck toys -
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    all internal -
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    ass masterpiece -
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    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
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    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
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    gay blind date sex -
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    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
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    prime cups -
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    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
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    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
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    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    gay college sex parties -
    all internal -
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    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
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    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
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    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
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    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
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    first time swallows -
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    give me pink -
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    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
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    huge boobs galore -
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    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
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    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
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    housewife 1on1 -
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    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
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    more gonzo -
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    insane cock brothas -
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    ReplyDelete
  67. she got pimped -
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    latin adultery -
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    hot campus teens -
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    huge boobs galore -
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    latin adultery -
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    more gonzo -
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