Wednesday, May 14, 2008

All The Money In The World

A friend of mine with many decades in the finance business has a saying: "If this goes on much longer they will end up with all the money in the world". He uses it to point out various cases of extreme pricing and market power, which sometimes (but not always) evolves to become a bubble. Prima facie evidence suggests that in today's environment his saying readily applies to crude oil.

Look at the chart below: at $120 per barrel, revenue from exporting crude oil and its products comes to over $1.85 trillion per year. The Middle East alone gets nearly a trillion and the former Soviet Union $300 billion - and that's before including natural gas.

Export-Import Data: BP (2006)

At current oil prices, this is by far the largest capital recycling and concentration pump in the entire history of the world. A dollar may not buy as much as it used to, but a trillion every year still buys plenty, even after liberal handouts pour epater les bourgeois. Very plenty, in fact: US and European banks, other resource companies like ore and coal miners, shipping and port operators, electricity, water and telecom providers and a host of other essential businesses. That's where all the SWF and private oil money is going, most commonly channelled through secretive private equity funds.

Obviously, the oil exporters are furiously planning for their post-Peak Oil future: sensibly, they don't want to ride camels again. And if this goes on much longer, by the time their oil wells start to decline they will own everything that matters and will be sitting - literally - atop all the money in the world.

What are the rest of us - Americans and Europeans alike - doing to plan our post-peak future? Next to nothing, is the painful answer. If a few EU nations like Germany, Denmark and Spain are attempting to face the alternative energy challenge, the US as the largest oil consumer is making a momentous mistake by its absence. Stubborn reliance on imported oil is rapidly impoverishing the nation. That sucking sound we all hear in our pockets is money vacuumed out by the oil exporters, only to come back as foreign equity ownership of everything.

The American administration is repeating the glaring mistake of the French and German armies' Russian invasion, albeit in a different context. Like arrogant generals whose prior easy victories made them blind to current harsh realities, Bush & Co. are throwing away America's post-Cold War advantage into the maws of the giant oil recirculation pump. Like Napoleon and Hitler before him, George W. Bush has failed to provide the nation with the protection of a sensible energy plan.

To make matters worse, the current monetary policy is designed solely as a bail out of a bankrupt shadow financial system. By preventing the liquidation of excessive debt that could result in a more efficient and sustainable economy, it keeps the dollar/oil recirculating pump going at full speed.

America is in the unfortunate position of being at the hands of a dogmatic incompetent and a near-sighted academic. For different reasons, both blithely believe they are right beyond doubt. One because he converses with God and the other because he trusts his econometric models with religious fervor.

But if they are wrong the price of failure is the end of Empire. That's too much to bet, by a long shot.

________________________________________

...and here's a perfect example of the lunacy perpetrated in order to keep the game going at all costs. CPI inflation was just reported as 0.2% for April, largely because the BLS said that gasoline prices DROPPED 2.0%. Yes, that's what the BLS said: gasoline prices dropped two percent in April. Now, we all know that prices climbed 9.5% during April, from $3.29/gal to $3.60. This was reported by no less than the government's own Energy Information Administration.

Ahhh, but such hard facts are immaterial to the BLS. You see, according to their seasonal CPI model, gasoline prices should have increased even more in April so a sharp rise ends up reported as a decline. I would try this argument next time I show up at the pump for a fill up, but I have a hunch I'd end up with a black eye.

26 comments:

  1. H:

    But to keep this in perspective, the U.S. GDP is about $15 Trillion. That means that oil is about 7% of current expenditures. Compare that to health care costs, which are about 15%+ of GDP.

    While I agree with you regarding the need to develop and implement sustainable technologies, oil is still a relatively small cost compared to other expenditures.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You miss the point Okie...

    Healthcare expense stays INSIDE the US. Oil expense goes OUT and then comes back in to buy us out.

    Better learn how to say thank you in Arabic (shukran).

    Regards,
    H.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "CPI inflation was just reported as 0.2% for April, largely because the BLS said that gasoline prices DROPPED 2.0%."

    I guess that this "mark to model (MTM)" fad really took off, kinda like the Hoola-Hoop and the Pet Rock, those guys made millions.

    I really don't think, it can't possibly be, it is ridiculous, no, I simply can not conceive, I absolutely refuse to accept the "fact" that we are being lied to.... I feel so disillusioned....

    Econolicious

    ReplyDelete
  4. The US GDP is more like 13 trill. and that is an inflated number since ever expanding amounts of debt were needed to produce the same GDP output.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hel: "You see, according to their seasonal CPI model, gasoline prices should have increased even more in April so a sharp rise ends up reported as a decline."

    This keeps getting weirder and weirderer. How appropriate for our age, absurdity becomes the norm.

    "Better learn how to say thank you in Arabic (shukran)."

    I have a feeling the expression will be "F U" when we default and come up with a new ruble in the post-empire world. I look forward to that world, it is preferable to me compared to the crimes committed by the Cheney administration. Then maybe we can focus on the real strength of this country--innovation and business acumen--instead of this current incompetent and embarrassing attempt at imperialism.

    ReplyDelete
  6. In terms of earning and revenue valuation, companies like Intel are way cheaper than some of the commodities miners. So, do you suggest, Hell, that we Americans shutdown Intel/Microsoft and go into digging holes in the ground?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Greenie
    Intel and Microsoft are export earning companies. Commodity companies are import avoiding companies. I suggest we do both.

    ReplyDelete
  8. H,

    Those guys with all the oil, and with the money-to-be, will start to sweat a tad when their drinking water sources become inadequate, and those folk with plenty of water will ... ... give them the birdy! It's a funny olde worlde.

    Northern European populations could exist with low levels of petroleum products for many months. However, try living in a hot climate without water!

    Anyone read Pandora's Planet (Christopher Anvil)?

    Brian P

    ReplyDelete
  9. I wouldn't want to set Thai's dental transistors buzzing but the whole ethanol program seems like a desperate attempt to pay for inflated oil with inflated food. The odds of all this leading to confrontation of one sort or other are getting higher.

    Boone Pickens was on a video link over at The Big Picture talking about how much oil Iraq owed the US for the cost of the invasion. Somehow I doubt they'll be saying shukran. (long interview, about 2/3 of the way in)

    ReplyDelete
  10. The typical SWF doesn't seem much more competent or far-sighted than the Cheney administration. SWF's seem to prefer investing their $B in the "shadow finance system" - which as this blog has pointed out has a dubious future. Dubai may use petro$ for re-development, but it's on the un-sustainable, Vegas-model that is dependent on globalization and over-consumption. When the petro$ runs out the ME could easily be the next Nauru instead of the Shariah-complaint bankers of the universe.
    Besides they are not the only foreign zone buying up the US at current fire-sale prices. We may just as well be saying "Shay Shay" as "Shakun."
    Agree 100% the US needs to invest in alterna-E infastructure. As for the future, I'd put my bets on Norway as being the only place likely to have much $$$ left once the oil runs out.

    ReplyDelete
  11. So let's see, 10,000,000 barrels a day imported 365 days a year is ahhh, 3,650,000,000 barrels a year, at say a hundred bucks a barrel (for ease of calculation of course) that looks like $3,650,000,000,000 I think. We might want to add in the military misadventures in both Iraq and Afghanistan, since Osama been forgotten and WMD's were just bullshit to get us there, and Wow! looks like about 4 trillion bucks leaving the good ole' US of A per year.

    I swear to god, they couldn't have screwed up this country more if they had brains and tried.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ooops, too many zeros. Whew, for a second I thought we were in trouble.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I kind of agree with mufu-- further,
    while they may briefly end up holding all the money in the world, it another thing entirely to keep it.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thai...

    The oil money is buying OWNERSHIP of equity assets in the US, Europe and Asia (where they can). They are concentrating on essential goods and services like power, telecom and water services, ports, shipping, food and health.

    They are no longer content to keep money parked in bank deposits and bonds, like they did last time they hit the oil jackpot (70's). This time they are buying the banks themselves, among everything else.

    It's not a foolproof strategy (nothing is) but it makes much more sense.

    H.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hell, I completely understand... But help me out if I am looking at this wrong (I am the first to admit I often get things backward): isn't this a little like when the Japanese bought the movie studios?

    And today The Sony parent does make 'some' profit from its investment in the studios, yet the reality is the lion's share of all the money earned from the movies (even from international sales) still resides with the people who developed the pictures (i.e. in Hollywood)

    The SWF can try and 'capitalize' on the talents of others all they like (say buy our banks, etc...), but ultimately, if you are looking at this from a nationalist standpoint (which I often reject anyway) unless theses nations develop the talents to run these businesses themselves (more than just being their 'deep pockets'), their money is going to just end up back in the pockets of the people they 'own'.

    This is exactly what happened to the Spanish Empire in the 1500's-- we know where they ended up.

    Ownership of tangible physical assets (say gold or MAYBE land) is one thing, ownership of people's talents is something completely different.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Ultimately, the concern over ownership comes down to who makes the rules. Will the new ownersof the newly acquired, ports, shipping, telecom and the like be dictating terms, as one might expect, or will things evolve in a more complex fashion?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Edwardo, have you ever been a manager/owner of a business? Have you ever had employees? Based on my life’s experiences, to me it is clear they will evolve.

    If the SWFs do create rules their employees don't like AND their employees think they can do a better job, the employees will leave and set up competing business AND take market share from the businesses the SWFs own.

    Holding on to oil at the point of a gun is not the same as holding onto a services or technical business in a free market economy. Services businesses/technical business are always ALSO at the mercy of their top performers.

    Look at Hell’s blog, we ‘hang here’ because he is good. Not because foreigner’s own blogger. In the end, Blogger is at the mercy of the combined efforts of all the Hells they have in their domains (without getting too Ann Rynd—I do take some issues with her). If Blogger were to do something stupid such that Hell jumps to a competitor, we would all ‘follow’ Hell there.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Let's view this dispassionately. Is it incorrect to make seasonal adjustments? I'd say not; clearly seasonal economic patterns happen and it makes sense to adjust for them. So what's the problem?

    ReplyDelete
  19. If you were selling something of high value and limited supply, what would you want in return Hel?

    Something that will maintain its value or depreciating promissory notes that can be defaulted on at will?

    Perhaps they should just give it away for free? After all, they owe the US for all the freedom (from electricity, clean water, functioning infrastructure, security, the burden of too many relatives, etc.) it has brought them.

    I didn't realize you were so in favor of perpetuating "Empire" that you fret so mightly about its demise. I'll settle for independence.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Thai wrote:

    "Holding on to oil at the point of a gun is not the same as holding onto a services or technical business in a free market economy."

    Do we live in a free market economy? I am not being facetious, I am unsure.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Fair enough... I am only making a general point; yours is just as valid.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hellasious,

    The oil - money - America recycling pump is not working as you describe. Saudi Arabians are not re-investing their Allah-given gains in buying up American property, they are building up their country, including seven glaring new cities in the desert. Building palaces and skyscrapers to keep up with the Kuwaitis, the Dubai cousins, and the Bahrainis sheikhs requires much money, and most of the time they were actually falling in debt. They also need military hardware to dissaude that mad neighbor across the water. And foreign ownership is untenable without military power, so Barack Obama can always follow Mugabe's or Evo Morales's example and expropriate the ill-gotten goods of those imperialist exploiters. On the other hand, I celebrate your advice of learning Arabic, which, Insh'Allah, I'll do. Shukran.

    ReplyDelete
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