Monday, May 26, 2008

In Memoriam: The Age of Complacency

Today, a Memorial Day special.


When supply and demand become unbalanced in a free market, prices act to bring them back into line. But if physical supply is constrained for some reason (e.g. depletion, war or embargo) prices have to rise a lot further before balance is restored. That's because in the absence of
additional supply, the only alternative is to lower demand via higher prices, i.e. prices have to do double duty. This is more so for goods that exhibit relatively inelastic demand, like crude oil.

Today, the relentless drive of crude oil to over $130 per barrel spells the end of The Age of Complacency, a quarter century during which we were lulled into smugness about the price and availability of necessities like food, energy and clean water.

Data: FRB St. Louis

For 25 years we literally sleepwalked. And finally smacked head-on to the most virulent supply-demand imbalance this world has ever seen. The sevenfold increase in prices serves as a rude wake-up call: we once again have to worry about the things we need, as opposed to the things we want.

We need food. So to keep the Green Revolution going we apply massive amounts of fertilizer, pesticides and mechanization to the production of grains and meat. Fertilizer consumption in the US, particularly nitrogen in the form of ammonia produced from natural gas, has increased sixfold.

Chart: USDA

And just like oil, fertilizer prices have now spiked sixfold. Yes, we really do eat oil and natural gas.


Data: YARA

During the Age of Complacency we thought good times would last forever, so we borrowed up to our eyeballs and kept satisfying our hankering for all things consumer. Household debt doubled as a percentage of disposable income, accelerating sharply in the last seven years. Instant gratification became the norm, instead of the exception. Well, goodbye to all that.

Data: FRB

At the end of the Age of Complacency, we find ourselves at a crossroads.

We can choose to live in denial for a short while longer. But soon thereafter we will have to pay dearly. Socio-economic triage will become a necessity, involving famine, pestilence, riot and war. The other five billion souls inhabiting this planet are simply no longer content to subsist on two bowls of rice per day, so that we can drive to the mall and fly to Monte Carlo for the races. The information revolution has seen to that, blogs included.

There is another choice: Change, starting right now. Reduce our consumption of everything, establish an alternative economic model based on sustainability, view growth as an opportunity instead of a purpose. Radical? Of course not: it's simply necessary.

How can we accomplish change? Necessity being the mother of all invention, there are many suggestions running the gamut from disguised denialism (corn ethanol), to hopeless futurism (power stations in space). Some are even downright macabre (dieoff). My own is the Greenback, a straightforward suggestion that involves familiar instruments and institutions in a novel application. There are no perfect solutions, of course; but doing nothing is much worse.

How are we currently doing at the crossroads, then? Not very well, I'm afraid. Denial is still the order of the day: we are told that the American way of life is non-negotiable, that tax cuts and shopping will boost the economy, that more drilling in the most hostile environments will (briefly) quench our thirst for fuel. In finance, we opt for bailouts instead of practical workouts, hoping the rest of the debt won't come crashing down from its rickety pile. Our political and economic leadership is, sadly, behind the times.

So, it is really up to the rest of us to quit being complacent and change our ways. There is no need to list what each of us could and should do - we already know. There are no excuses. Let's get involved in our future.

38 comments:

yoyomo said...

Hel,
I would be curious as to what your solution to the nutrient drain from the soil would be. Sewer systems mix toxic industrial chemicals into the waste stream and make the sludge not suitable for use as fertilizer. With more and more urbanization, even more soil fertility makes a one way trip to the city and never makes it back to the farm and mineral mines are or will be depleted and won't be able to perpetually replace lost nutrients.

There was an article in Harper's a while back (The Oil That We Eat) that said that farm fields in Iowa were 6-9 feet lower than adjacent fields that had been left in prarie grass. There's only a few more feet of topsoil left before sterile sand is reached.

Problems such as these need societal solutions imposed from above, individual efforts would make only a small difference. Does that qualify as idle hand wringing?

Yoski said...

But the oil price is driven up by speculators, right? No wait, it's rebels in Nigeria and madman like Chavez. In August through October it's the hurricanes. No in fact it is the greedy oil companies gauging us. Tensions in Iraq/Iran are keeping the oil price up. It's the environmentalists and liberals that keep us from drilling in ANWR that are at fault for the oil prices.
Only a lunatic would believe any of this could possibly in any way be conected to supply and demand. After all, there's plenty supply out there, right? Every time I pull up at the gas station they're in supply, so why the high prices?

yoyomo said...

Oil IS available because you can afford to pay the high prices. In those areas of the world where people can't afford $4/g gas there isn't any unless it's subsidized (or stolen).

Anonymous said...

Excellent H, really like your blog

dink said...

Great post!

Voluntary self-limitation can be done, but it takes a certain emotional peace with one's self. Sometimes people's reactions to my self-limiting are so telling about their own emotional state. "But you can afford a cooler car!". Or in in response to not ordering alcohol with dinner: "But what if people think you're in AA? Or mormon? Or poor??". Or in response to my vegetarianism "But you're not fat!"(??).

In short, to show you're a "winner" you must voraciously consume. This planet really needs psychology to catch up with the other sciences.

Anonymous said...

There is no substitute for oil, or fresh water. As the remaining oil fields are pumped dry, and the fossil water is pumped from the aquifers, we will find that no matter how we change our lifesyles there are just too many people.

Jason B

Cottonbloggin said...

yoyomo said:

"I would be curious as to what your solution to the nutrient drain from the soil would be"

google: Vertical Farming.

-it can be energy neutral
-it shortens the supply chain since it's already in the city
-it can lower stress and nutrient depletion on traditional farmland
-hydroponic growing is more efficient
-less pesticides would used since there'd be less pests, so it's healthier

Italian said...

Great post.
I wasn't aware of the link between fertiliser and natural gas.
Yes the solution must be politic: the alternative being just war. La sola igiene del mondo...

Marcus said...

If peak oil production is here, all other (short term) crisis will pale in comparison and this country will freak.

The one good thing about the stupidity of invading Iraq is it shows people the difficulty of occupation and oil production in a hostile environment. Not that it will stop the call for annihilation of populations in an attempt to maintain the "American way of life", it just might give it pause.

I don't think buying a Prius and forgoing meat is going to be a sufficient response to what we are about to face--grass-roots political involvement is the only hope.

Sion said...

I watched war of the worlds last night on DVD. In front of our newly aquired 26' flat screen TV.

It's a very well executed movie.

I sure hope we don't end up fighting over Oil. I don't want to find out what it's like to be an Iraqi.

There can be no winners in war.

Greenie said...

Great post. I think I should increase the allocated money on my agri and fertilizer company shorts (MON, MOS, POT, CF, TRA).

Anonymous said...

Everyone's heard the expression today's technology was developed twenty years ago by the military (or something like that). You had better believe that the CIA, NSA, NRO, ONI, and yeah, HAL saw this shitstorm coming. There is no doubt. The world's largest embassy ever constructed, for what? Dates? Please.

It doesn't matter what the hell we want. Ten million people protested the Iraq war before a single shot was fired. There will be no mitigation. You are now completely indebted, and will put up with anything to keep your tank filled. They won't even have to pull off another 9-11 scam.

Greenie said...

Greenie announced today:

"After crude tops, many of us will never see crude at $135 in our lifetime."

Details in his blog:
greenscam.blogspot.com

Greenie said...

If that pronouncement comes to hold, many of the peak oil supporters will come to look like David Lereah.

Anonymous said...

It seems to me that there are two issues involved here: 1) the price of oil; and 2) the value of money. Both are related.

The word "finite" means limited, as in, only so much to go around. Why do people have such a hard time with the the idea that oil (and other hydrocarbons) are limited in supply? And when they're gone, they're gone.

We had a house guest the last week and when this topic came up, her rejoinder was, "There's plenty of oil to go around! It's the environmentalists who won't let them drill for it!!" (We've just had 7 years of the most anti-environmentalist administration in US history, but that's another subject).

There was a neat chart on another blog a couple of days ago which showed the estimated amount of oil and natural gas that might be found by drilling in certain areas in the US. Since my house guest has left, I can't ask her the obvious question: "When we use all of that up, then what?" I didn't even get the chance to show her that even if we exploit all the known reserves, the supply will still fall short of ever-increasing demand.

So it seems to me that our task is to develop a non-petroleum based means of transportation. One way that is already developed and could be scaled up immediately is Mag-Lev trains for local and near-city (less than 500 miles) transportation. Mag-Lev trains literally fly on the ground; they fly on a cushion of magnetism, and because there's so little friction, they can travel comfortably at speeds of over 300 mph.

But their main attraction is that they use electricity as an energy source. Electricity can be generated from a variety of sources. Everything from wind power to hydropower to nuclear power can be used to produce electricity. (And none of those sources produce carbon dioxide.)

I'd like to see a test run on this technology made, say from Washington to New York. Maybe then there will be enough interest generated to expand it nationwide, much like the Interstate Highway System was created during the 1950's-1980's.

We don't have much time left to begin to make the transition from the petroleum era.

And the monetary issue should be solved by creating a Bank of the United States which would have the same functions as the FED, except that it would issue United States Notes, which draw no interest.

The way the financial world exists today, the banks are in the business of selling money at a commission. Created out of nothing, the banks then try to place as much money in circulation as possible, and then take a cut out of it. This has to be the biggest scam in all of history.

The founders, especially Jefferson, would turn over in their graves if they saw this. Money is the standard by which we measure economic progress, but it has become so perverted that it is nearly useless for the purpose.

Instead, we must rely on the phony inflation statistics that are fed us.

Anonymous said...

I just spoke to an Asia oil trader (who buys large quantity of real oil and distribute to smaller buyers), and he said that many of his buyers' profit has shrank and banks are giving less letters of credit to buy oil. He is already seeing demand dropping off at his end. Hence my friend suspects that US$132 per barrel is not driven by fundamentals, but by speculation.

I tend to agree as we are actually seeing anecdotal evidence of oil consumption dropping off (yes, in Asia including China and India), and yet crude prices continue to surge even when there is no apparent problem for supply to match today's global demand.

The way I see it, speculators are driving up oil prices so high that consumers are now accelerating their adjustment to a more energy efficient society.

Thanks to oil speculators, I see a bright future in 10 to 20 years time when oil consumption drops off faster than what oil producing countries need to supply to sustain their lifestyle.

Arnould said...

Here are links to a number of Wikipedia articles to make a parallel to today's Helasious blog entry.

1) The Medieval Warm Period was a time of warm weather around 800-1300 AD during the European Medieval period.

2) The population levels of Europe during the Middle Ages can be roughly categorized:

* 400-1000: stable at a low level.
* 1000-1250: population boom and expansion.
* 1250-1350: stable at very high level.
* 1350-1420: steep decline
* 1420-1470: stable at a low level.
* 1470-onward: slow expansion gaining momentum in the early 16th century.

3) The Great Famine of 1315–1317 (occasionally dated 1315-1322) was the first of a series of large-scale crises that struck Europe early in the 14th century, causing millions of deaths over an extended number of years and marking a clear end to an earlier period of growth and prosperity during the 11th to 13th centuries.


Now the interesting fact is that a well documented event triggered the decline. Only slightly more than 2 years of uninterrupted rain from spring 1315 to summer 1317 were enough to plunge a prosperous society into one where people died from hunger (and some ate their neighbor's children!). Only afterwards came Black Death, the 100 years war etc.. and that surely must be the reason why this catastrophy is not so well remembered.

When I was young I was never frightened by the neverending (for me) cold war stories of atomic bombs able to wipe out humanity within a few minutes.

But now that I am 45, and population expanded again for more than 5 centuries, I don't know why, but I am afraid that a big crisis like this great famine could happen again.

Granted, possibly it is only because I become older and things were better in the past. I hope so...

Greenie said...

"I am afraid that a big crisis like this great famine could happen again."


LOL. You are really funny.

crimson ghost said...

The real moment of truth will come when oil has its inevitable correction perhaps to the $100 area.

Will the mood then be HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN or will this accurately be seen as just the eye of the hurricane before prices start up again towards $200 in a year or two.

Anonymous said...

Hey Chicken Little, maybe this is just one more occasion when then sky isn't falling.

How many times have people cried doom ? The Club of Rome dates to '72. Things move in cycles, depression follows euphoria and back again. Let's get some perspective.

Any single price rise is a blip in the big scheme of things. Just wait a while and it will sort itself out, of course burning a few bystanders in the process.

And drop this "green money" fantasy - don't you realize that you're alreay shilling for the next bubble?

Hellasious said...

Re: blips.

I know blips; a rise from $20 to $130 in five years doesn't qualify as one. Reality is a bitch.

Marcus said...

Black swans are a bitch. Have the mocking birds here studied oil supply compared to demand the last three years?

Why has oil production stayed relatively flat with ever increasing demands and high prices?

Anonymous said...

If this was 1870 you folks would be claiming Peak Whale Oil will soon send us all into darkness. Right.

The price of methane is high because so much is now used to produce electricity that should have been produced by nukes.

Well, too late to dodge that bullet. But now you guys are suing (or more likely I should say STILL suing) to stop the use of coal to generate electricity. And of course most environmentalists still hate nukes.

So you don't want the US to use the oil everyone knows is in the ground at ANWR and other places. You don't want to use coal. You don't want nukes. Methane is expensive and has supply issues like oil. And since it produces CO2 I'm sure some batch of greens will sue to stop that too.

That being the case just how are you going to power those trains that you all love so much? Do you really think you can power enough of the grid with windmills to keep the economy going after you block everything else?

Anders Brink said...

Actually, if this was the 1870s, I would not be predicting peak whale oil will send us into darkness.

I will be predicting that we will stop using whale oil soon, because of better alternatives.

Think of it: unlimited solar energy? Which stupid civilization will rather burn limited fossil fuel energy that also happens to be polluting?

Anonymous said...

Anders,
We had the better alternatives back in the 1970s in the form of nuclear energy, but the environmentalists mostly blocked it.

Which stupid civilization would rather burn limited fossil fuel energy that also happens to be polluting?

Well, it turns out this one, at least when it lets greens make energy policy. Bad idea

Anders Brink said...

If you think the greens set energy policy, you mst not live on earth, because I can't think of any country where the greens set energy policy.

In the 1970s, we didn't get nuclear power. We can always get nuclear power back, no need to feel sore about it. It wasn't becuase of the greens that we don't have nuclear power. It is because of of stupid people with NIMBY attitudes towards nuclear power.

I don't understand why the you hate the greens that much. In fact, I don't understand US politics much. As foreigner, I think I find the way you divide each other into factions, and what you accuse each side as guilty of to be endlessly amusing.

Anders Brink said...

How many times have people cried doom ? The Club of Rome dates to '72. Things move in cycles, depression follows euphoria and back again. Let's get some perspective.


I am not interested in depression or euphoric cycles. If we build a civilization on a non-renewable resource like oil, we should be prepared for such cycles.

I am interested in the foundations of how we build civilization. I want it to be firm, so that we can get on to interesting stuff like exploring space.

Is this too much to ask that we behave like adults, not children on an oil binge?

Anders Brink said...

If you think the greens set energy policy, you mst not live on earth, because I can't think of any country where the greens set energy policy.

In the 1970s, we didn't get nuclear power. We can always get nuclear power back, no need to feel sore about it. It wasn't becuase of the greens that we don't have nuclear power. It is because of of stupid people with NIMBY attitudes towards nuclear power.

I don't understand why the you hate the greens that much. In fact, I don't understand US politics much. As foreigner, I think I find the way you divide each other into factions, and what you accuse each side as guilty of to be endlessly amusing.

Anders Brink said...

"I am afraid that a big crisis like this great famine could happen again."

Greenie, in response to the above, you laughed. If you have anything insightful to think why this is not happening, do share.

As far as I can see, there is nothing to laugh about.

Anonymous said...

Anders,
The greens can always conjure up a few ignorant idiots to hang their lawsuit on to prevent any kind of development, at least in the US. This is how they set energy policy- by suing to stop any thing they don't like. And when it comes to energy supply, that's just about everything. I'm sure if wind power or solar ever become close to being significant additions to US energy production they'll sue to stop that too.
Bluntly, I don't care about your opinion of US politics. My comments are directed at the environmental movement in the US and not anywhere else. If it's different in your country, fine.

Hellasious said...

We are all environmentalists now, even if we don't call ourselves such.

We live in an environment that is increasingly being shaped by us, by our human activity upon this Earth. As little as a century ago our numbers and technical abilities were so limited that almost nothing that we did could impact the overall environment in a meaningful and lasting way. Nature was overwhelmingly stronger than Man. This is clearly no longer the case.

What we do now, the choices we make in resource exploitation, population and consumption patterns have very significant and measurable effects on our habitat.

And it's no longer my country vs. your country. Patterns have become global, and so have the effects.

dink said...

Anders-
"Greenie, in response to the above, you laughed. If you have anything insightful to think why this is not happening, do share.

As far as I can see, there is nothing to laugh about."

Greenie is a troll. He enthusiastically feeds off the suffering of others. He has his own website, but he won't stay there.

Anonymous said...

Hellasious,
Pardon my rudeness but what is this "we" of which you speak? I know it isn't the world because China, India and others have already told the UN and the greens to eff off, and won't be capping CO2 emissions no matter how many frowny frowns come their way.

That being the case, efforts such as Kyoto are totally and absolutely doomed, and the endless efforts of the environmental movement in the US to strangle the US economy are equally pointless as to their stated goal. The US could be completely annihilated and CO2 emissions would continue to rise, after a pause.

This being the case, I can't help thinking that the real motivation of most greens is to harm the US or just make themselves feel good about themselves, or some combination of both. In any case I just don't believe them or their claims any more. Sorry.

Avl said...

Interesting political development reported in Britain's Sunday Telegraph, June 1, 2008:

US Senators seek curbs on London trading in oil futures

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/01/cnoil101.xml

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元美女 said...

(法新社a倫敦二B十WE四日電) 「情色二零零七」A片情趣產品大產自成人電影AV女優十三日起在倫敦的肯辛頓奧林匹亞展覽館舉行,倫敦人擺脫對性的保守態度成人網站踴躍參觀,許多成人網站穿皮衣與塑膠緊身衣的好色之徒擠進這項世界規模最大的成人生活展,估計三天展期可吸引八萬多好奇色情影片民眾參觀。
情色電影
A片下載動計畫AV負責人米里根承諾:「要搞浪漫、誘惑人、玩虐待,你渴望的我們都有情色。」

他說:「時髦的設計與華麗女裝,從吊飾到束腹到真人大小的雕塑,是我們由今年展出的數千件產品精選出的一部分,參展產品還包括時尚服飾、貼身女用內在美、鞋子、珠寶、玩具、影片、藝術、情色圖書及成人影片遊戲,更不要說性愛輔具及馬術裝備。」a片下載

參觀民眾遊覽兩百五a片十多個攤位,有性感服裝成人電影、玩具及情色食品,迎合各種品味。
av女優
大舞台上表演的是美國野蠻情色電影搖滾歌手瑪莉蓮曼森的前妻─全世界頭牌脫衣舞孃黛塔范提思,這是她今年在英國唯一色情一場表演。

以一九四零年代風格演出的黛塔范提思表演性感的天堂鳥、旋轉木馬及羽扇等舞蹈av

參展攤位有成人影片的推廣情趣用品,有色情的公開展示人a片體藝術和人體雕塑,也有情色藝術家工會成員提供建議。