Thursday, July 3, 2008

Hand-basket, Stage Two

Well, I'm back from sailing and, as a reader said in a comment, all "Hell" broke loose while I was away. Putting it another way, things kinda went to hell in a hand-basket, as the saying goes...

Is this a climactic event that signifies a major bottom? No, I don't think so. It looks to me that we are in the early stages of a long, drawn-out process of reshaping the economy to a more rational model, one where corporatism, finance and markets play a smaller role. The clearest sign can be seen in politics, where Sen. Obama is successfully articulating a common sense theme: America's economy should benefit the vast majority of the people instead of a few mega-rich.

Corollary: all wealth-concentration processes will be running on reverse for years, including the biggest and most notorious of them all, i.e. speculative finance (high leverage, senseless M&A activity, etc.).

The old model is still very popular abroad, particularly in China and Russia. Despite their communist background (what a sad joke), the most extravagant excess is now happening right there. During my trip I heard a yacht broker boasting of chartering a sailing yacht for $450,000 for just one week to Russians - a big yacht (over 120 ft.), but still...

That's it for today, the employment numbers will be coming out soon and will update afterwards.

Employment numbers update.

The new positive spin mantra following economic releases is "only slightly worse than expected". That's how today's bad employment figures were labelled by the mainstream press, used to support the view that the economy is "resilient". Notice the erosion in the MoT dialectic: we have gone from "better than expected" and "in line with expectations", to "only slightly worse". I bet "one-time negative adjustment" is next.

26 comments:

  1. Welcome back, H. I am looking forward to your continued analysis. The markets dropped while you were gone, but it has been more of a steady drip, drip, drip, than a true correction. I suspect many people's fears are correct that there is a concerted attempt to pass off any real correction until after the election (esp. inauguration of the new President).

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hell, I've missed your analysis, but you've clearly been out of the loop too long. Obama has completely sold out. He has accepted and endorsed the Neocon model of executive power and abandoned pretty much all of his platform. See FISA, gun control, separation of church and state, and increasingly slippery rhetoric on Iraq/Iran.

    You're terribly mistaken if you expect "change you can count on."

    ReplyDelete
  3. Welcome back Hell.

    "...Sen. Obama is successfully articulating a common sense theme: America's economy should benefit the vast majority of the people instead of a few mega-rich."

    My argument is that this recession will be positive because it might just be severe enough to get the attention of the American voters.

    We can only hope so. Obama is after all human and now that the Cheney Administration has set up the president as king...

    We can only hope there are potential presidents out there like Washington and someone like Obama will unravel a lot of the foolishness of the last 7 years.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Talk about big yachts, take a look at us over here in the U.K.—talk about Monopoly Money. Just announced: a £4 billion project over the next four years for two massive aircraft carriers each with flight decks the size of three to four football pitches in length to secure Britain’s roll as a “world power” (itself an oxymoron) and “relieve pressure on front line forces in theatres of war like Afghanistan”. In other words, to secure Middle East petroleum resources and a thinly disguised four year make-work project for the now already in ruins unemployment blighted ship building regions of the Northwest England and Scotland. Both New Labour strongholds.

    My guess is that with the current long term economic crises in Britain (not to mention the other major economies of the West) they never will see their way into the shipyards of Glasgow or Barrow-in-Furness let alone the Persian Gulf.

    What we are seriously looking at now over here (or for that matter just about anywhere) is a befuddled and confused government of half-wits, incompetents, fools, liars, weird religious cultists, and sheep “led” by a shambling oaf whose cabinet colleagues are totally controlled by events rather than the other way round.

    Looking ahead (to the event horizon of the Black Hole we are all slowly being sucked into) we are seeing escalating food, petrol and commodities prices, negative home ownership equity, a retail sector in meltdown, a stock market imploding, rising interest rates, household debt at 137% of earnings (the highest in the EEC), reduced real incomes, job losses, an eroding of private pensions and a massive cut back on state pensions and social services for the most vulnerable in society generally.

    It’s gonna be a hard half dozen years ahead but in spite of this we all know Britain must maintain its posture of resource wars co-operation with the U.S.. To return to my earlier analogy: it’s board games for befuddled boobs.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Sorry Hel-

    Forgot to pipe you back after what I hope was a well earned rest. From one Old Skipper to another, welcome aboard!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Spyware:

    "it’s board games for befuddled boobs."

    And that's why recessions may be positive for these societies: that the foolishness of running after gangs like Al Queda with missile defense systems and aircraft carriers and fixing corrupt finance systems by producing more debt will be exposed as boobery.

    Hopefully the pain of contraction will focus the mind and attention of the populations on the faults in the system.

    Hope springs eternal.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Talk about excess blowhard Rush Limbough signed a contract where he will be paid $50 million a year to continue his right wing war mongering diatribes over the airwavs. Average folks may be suffering but the parasitic elite at the top still are making out like bandits for the most part.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Spyware, its an average debt of 173% of annual earnings in the UK. The highest level ever for a G7 member country, higher than Japan 1990 vintage.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Great diatribe, Sypware. My husband's comments are "looks like we're going to get to the nitty gritty sooner than we thought".

    ReplyDelete
  10. The think that really strikes me as interesting is the fact that the retail/discretionary sector has not really underperformed this year... if you look at consensus numbers, EPS estimates are actually up so far this year... when the fiscal stimulus fades, this segment of the market is up for a huge reality check.

    ReplyDelete
  11. According to my analysis, Britain will be completely decimated by the end of this cycle (~2015-16). Can't happen to a better country !!


    USA will lose its superpower status, but will survive this time. Empires do not disappear in a day, because both the ruler and the subjects have mutual consent in an empire that takes longer to go away (and George Bush did most of the hard work to make it happen).

    ReplyDelete
  12. USA will lose its superpower status

    The Soviet Union spent themselves silly in Afghanistan and keeping up with the Americans.

    Now we are doing the same thing in Afghanistan and Iraq plus trying to keep up with China.

    Sadly, we didn't win the cold war. They just went bankrupt first.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Welcome back!

    On these "only slightly worse than expected" phrases ...

    I know a senior trader who's been spouting the "don't panic" themes in personal conversation:

    2007 April - "Bernanke just needs to drop rates"

    2007 Oct - "It's contained"

    2008 March - "The worst is behind us"

    He's a smart guy, but salesmen have to be believers.

    Lately he's become kind of despondent - lost 90% of the value of his share options. The current line: "Don't know what to trust when management speaks, they're making strategic decisions on a daily basis".

    ReplyDelete
  14. I'm with WRT on Obama, he's been co-opted either with political bribes or threats. He's got to know there are lots of agents that wouldn't mind seeing him offed and he'd rather not incentivize them any further.

    Spyware,
    You might want to take a look at Pat Buchanan's new book about Churchill's obsession with the rise of Germany and how he wrecked UK trying to prevent it (WW 1&2).

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