Tuesday, September 14, 2010

I'm Back. It's Nice To Be Missed

It's always a great compliment to be missed (and not misplaced).

My absence was caused by a combination of vacation (yes, Debra, it involved the love of my life, long walks along isolated sandy beaches, attempts at poetic expression and even a lovers' tiff or two), moving houses and a change of schools for the kids.  Now, that's what you call a killer combo - for blogs, anyway.
Rorvig

I managed to get my Internet service up and running again last night, so here I am - if more than a bit behind on global economic goings-on.  Though I will catch up in the next couple of days, it's comforting to know that the world does not float on a bed of hot air emanating from yours truly.

Till later...

19 comments:

Oji said...

Welcome back!

Greenie said...

minsperk

Anonymous said...

nice to know that you enjoyed your time, and welcome back!

Debra said...

Ha... I'm a psychic, not a shrink... gotta get a new professional plaque made... ;-)
No, the world did not go up in a mushroom cloud while you were gone, nor did the markets...
(Would you have noticed for the second ?)
Glad you're back. I was getting depressed.
NOW I can desert the blog I was hanging out at for a while, WAITING for you to come back, and wondering if you would...
Spam word... preGRACE..

Anonymous said...

miss your insights =)

JP said...

The world floats on the massive issuance of soverign debt that will never actually be paid back.

That's similar to hot air.

I wonder what will happen with Japan's soverign debt.

Debra said...

I'd like your take, Hell, on the idea that if we managed to separate and differentiate the physical, flesh and blood person from the corporate identity, we might be able to pull back from some of this folly...

Anonymous said...

Hey...! Glad to see you're back....

Good luck in your new crib....

There's a big brouhaha going on in some of the blogs relating to hyper inflation.....

It's pretty interesting.....

Check out Gonzalo Lira, Mish and Zero Hedge on this topic.. I'd like to hear your perspective on this topic...

I'm in the school that anticipates a hyper inflationary event within a deflationary context and positioned accordingly in the markets. However, I never articulated my position in this matter as such until I got involved in the conversation....

Would really appreciate your views on this issue.

Best regards,

Econolicious

Debra said...

As a shrink, I will permit myself some psychology, Econo, on the subject of hyperinflation.
It's what happens when A LARGE GROUP OF PEOPLE SUDDENLY BELIEVE and start spreading the belief (exponential multiplication) that.. the emperor has no clothes.
BUT.. no "fiat" economy is based on an OBJECTIVE, EXTERNAL reality, Econo.. That's what most people don't understand...(and what the charts mask, by the way...)
That's why the IDEA of the Ponzi SCHEME is based on a misunderstanding of the nature of fiat in the first place.
The essence of the problem is.. WHAT DO PEOPLE BELIEVE ? (or not believe, as it were) AND.. WHO DO THEY TRUST ? (or not trust, in the worst case scenarios...)
Remember the underpinnings of those words "fiat" and "credit" : faith/trust and BELIEF...
That's why I keep harping on about "The Merchant of Venice". William knew that.. (He was an excellent businessman, by the way...)
Now.. if you're question is.. CAN WE PREDICT WHEN a large group of people will suddenly decide that the Emperor has no clothes ??
Well... I still think that there is an enormous amount of CHANCE involved in that one. And WE are not going to get rid of that chance any time soon. (Hope I'll be dead before..)

Debra said...

Thanks for that great video, Greenie. I passed it on. (That's what the Internet is for, right ? ;-) )

Latifundius said...

Welcome Back! As a regular reader (but rarely posting comments)I want to express my gratitude that you will continue with the blog. It is always a good read and a great source of information.

donna said...

Merchant Service Inc. has a lot of different options at affordable prices.

Anonymous said...

Hi Debra.... Long time no see....

"....CAN WE PREDICT WHEN a large group of people will suddenly decide that the Emperor has no clothes ??...."

Yes, faith and trust.... History will demonstrate to us that faith is for skeptics. And trust, well, me personally, I trust man (woman) to act in accordance with his (her) genetic impulses.... More so when faced with such an uncertain political and economic future. Thus lying, cheating, stealing and killing become more of a rule than an exception.

I stated this and it confounded me that I was not able to entertain this concept, even though I was acting on it in a most rational manner.

".... I'm in the school that anticipates a hyper inflationary event within a deflationary context and positioned accordingly in the markets. However, I never articulated my position in this matter as such until I got involved in the conversation...."

You stated...

".... CAN WE PREDICT WHEN a large group of people will suddenly decide that the Emperor has no clothes ??
Well... I still think that there is an enormous amount of CHANCE involved in that one. And WE are not going to get rid of that chance any time soon. (Hope I'll be dead before..)...."

I don't think that we have to wait for a large group of people to suddenly decided that the Emperor has no clothes. I hate to sound so cavalier and elitist, however, I don't think that a large group are going to have the slightest idea as to what the Emperor is wearing. Some people will follow wisdom and some will follow courage, however most will follow anything that moves.

Stay alive, we're in for some very exciting times....

Best regards,

Eco

camabron said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
camabron said...

Sad but true..., I'm sure you'll chuckle at this:

I can print more money than you can

"One of my colleagues has referred to the possibility of competitive QE, as countries compete to create more money. Clearly, it is very hard now for countries to drive down their currencies via conventional monetary policy, since the developed world is almost universally holding rates at 1% or below. There is no yield play, at least in the major currencies. But if countries sit back and let their currencies appreciate, that represents monetary tightening, at a time when fiscal policy is being tightened as well.

More QE would offset this tightening, and potentially drive the currency down. One could see a repeat of the competitive devaluations of the 1930s, as one country after another abandoned gold."

Debra said...

Eco.. you know I have a REALLY hard time getting this point across, for STRUCTURAL reasons that have everything to do with where Western CIVILIZATION is right now, but the problem is NOT what the Emperor is wearing in a symbolic system, it is what we BELIEVE he is wearing. To be even more radical about it Greenie... THERE IS NO EMPEROR (on THIS earth, in any case. IN this world....). How can we be telling ourselves that HE is wearing nothing ?
UNLESS... the EMPEROR question has EVERYTHING to do with "IN WHOM WE TRUST"...
Oddly enough, I told a woman a few days ago that if she frittered her life away moving.. from one idealized IDOL to the next, she would ALWAYS BE UNSATISFIED, DISCONTENT.
We have been... SHOPPING TOO MUCH, Eco.
Shopping for.. GOD, shopping for retirement, whatever. Instead of rolling up our sleeves, and BUILDING that trust. We have been WAITING for it to arrive in our wide, open mouths. No go.

Anonymous said...

Debra:

I agree, it is very difficult and challenging to invoke the discipline of a river that keeps flowing and creates it's own banks. Nothing is more challenging in life than walking the "razors edge", that narrow path that runs between the perils of fear and desire. However, once on that path, you become the river that runs toward the ocean and nothing can take that away from you..... :-)

ciao,

Eco

Debra said...

Sigh, Eco...
WHY did you go waste YOUR TALENT in those economic spheres ??
Dry and dusty places for literary types...

Debra said...

Ahem, Hell... YOU DID SAY YOU WERE BACK ??