Greece... land of Pythagoras, Plato, Pericles - and more platitudes than you can shake a stick at.
Nevertheless, here's one more from a Greek bank professional: Greece is the land of miracles. (I'm certain he didn't quite mean it as a compliment).
To wit, ANYTHING can happen there. Here's a handy comparison from recent history.
- First, a current chart of the 5-year CDS (credit default swap) on Greek government bonds (click to enlarge).
- Second, a chart of what happened in the Greek stockmarket some 10 years ago.
Greek Share Prices 1997-1999
Get my point, via chart comparison? The place is basically looney-tunes and CANNOT be analyzed or predicted in any rational, by-the-numbers method. For clues, best dust off the psychotherapy manuals and be prepared for excess, negative AND positive.
- Third, here's how the share bubble burst after the year 2000. The "miracle" of 1999 turned into dust shortly thereafter.
Now, given the excess of emotional swings apparent above, I wonder what may happen to Greek CDS prices in the not-so-distant future?