Thursday, October 7, 2021

Raising The Debt Limit - What's It To Me?

Sometimes politicians make the stupidest mistakes and their actions reveal much more than their words.

So, Biden goes on TV to push for raising the US debt limit. To deliver this very, very urgent and important message, he asks some important people to help him drive the point home. Here’s who he invited:
 
The CEOs of:
 
1. Bank of America
2. Citibank
3. JP Morgan
4. NASDAQ
5. Deloitte
6. The National Association of Realtors
7. Raytheon (94% of its revenue comes from defense contracts)
8. Intel
 
and the head of
 
9. The American Association of Retired Persons
 
 

 
Thus:
  • Five out of nine are financiers 100% dependent on debt
  • One is the head of a defense contractor whose revenue depends entirely on funding (debt) decisions made by politicians.
  • One heads an industry that depends on ever more debt to finance ever more expensive homes.
  • One - just one - heads a true American tech champion
  • And, finally, one represents people who will really suffer from a government shutdown, if their Social Security payments are delayed

So, how is the typical middle class Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Public taxpayer, in whose name the already huge public debt will be raised even further, supposed to identify with those people and their institutions?  Why should they care? To fund the banks, the realtors and the defense industry?

Oh, and Biden is a Democrat, a member of the party that champions the working class - supposedly. Sometimes the truth is there in plain sight, on prime time TV...

But since this is a data driven blog, let’s look at numbers.

The 2022 US budget projects revenue of $6.01 trillion and deficit of $1.84 trillion,  ie this is what needs to be covered by more debt, ie an equal rise to the debt limit. If we decided NOT to raise debt, we must cut outlays and raise revenue by a combined $1.84 trillion. 

Here are some expenses we should not cut, in billion dollars

  • Interest on existing debt (must not default): 305
  • Social security, income security, Medicare: 2960
  • ===> Total untouchable: 3265
This leaves 6010 - 3265 = 2745 in all other expenses, (the largest is defense at 770 billion).

Given that we need to come up with 1840 to balance the budget, it is obvious that we can’t do it just by cutting these other expenses alone. So, here’s a novel (not) idea:

Cut defense by 50%: 385 billion - we are not at war and shouldn’t be the planet’s policeman, either
Cut everything else 25%: 690 billion
Total savings 1075. Still need another 765 billion ====> increase income and wealth taxes by that.  
Done.

Or, here’s another “radical” idea: the US burns through 500 million gallons of gasoline and aviation fuel per day! Tax it like the rest of the civilized world at $2.00 per gallon and you raise $365 billion per year. And gasoline would still be half the price than in Europe!!   

Sure, consumption will go down, but that’s what we need, no?









14 comments:

  1. so... is Hell for or against raising the debt limit? =)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Against.

      increasing debt at a rate exceeding nominal economic growth is inflationary, counterproductive and ecologically fatal.
      (Permagrowth). Debt is the facilitator for irrational exuberance in markets, too.

      Delete
    2. wow... from the Newyork times I get the impression that every right thinking person should be for raising the debt limit and it is only republicans that are keeping it from happening...

      do you feel a lot of Americans share this opinion?

      Delete
    3. I think lots of Republicans do.

      The NYT is, of course, the most “liberal” of the mainstream press as well as a Democratic stalwart. And don’t forget that NYC itself is 100% dependent on finance which is, of course, hooked on debt. Stop the debt presses and NYC collapses pretty quickly.

      This does not mean I’m a Republican, mind you. I’m all for sharply higher Uber wealth and Uber-income taxes, which is exactly how we should fund the American transition to a greener and fairer economy. NOT by raising the debt limit.

      Delete
    4. I always knew NYT was biased but I never thought its portrayal of public opinion was so skewed that a legitimate opinion is omitted. It is a bad sign, means they cannot find a real solution and need to rely on illusions.

      Chinese propaganda is usually so wrong headed you wonder why they even bother. In contrast, U.S. propaganda is very good; it tells a 99% truth and slips the idea inside the 1% omission. Problem is, when you have a hammer, everything looks like nail.

      Delete
    5. US propaganda is no longer 99% truth, alas. And in Trump’s time it was probably 99% fake..

      Delete
    6. I actually prefer the Trump style... it is so fake it becomes truthful =)

      Delete
  2. it would be quite hard to cut military expense by half; a lot of it is soldier's pay, doing so would hurt morale really badly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. US has 1.4 million soldiers on active duty. Say the salary and benefits cost is $100.000 per person (that's high, but anyway..) that's $140 billion... where does the rest go? Even if we DOUBLE the personnel cost... to 280 billion... where does the rest go?

      Delete
    2. a lot of the remainder is probably equipment maintenance and upgrade.... and a lot of the U.S. equipment is really old.... I think most of the carrier fighters are super hornets... from the 1980s...

      Delete
    3. Where does the rest go.... Look up the biggest US defense contractors. ..

      From Bloomberg:

      In fiscal 2020, defense contract spending hit a record high of $447 billion – representing nearly two thirds of overall federal contract spending. It’s an impressive growth trajectory that we’ve been tracking for years. Pentagon spending surged by $140.6 billion between fiscal 2016 and 2020, with a $42 billion increase in the last year alone.

      It's not maintenance...

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    5. hmmm.... actually, I feel a lot of that is the decline in American industry. The technical expertise to maintain a cutting edge military is no longer present in the private section. The result is you need to pay a premium for dedicated personnel and this also gives monopoly power to the firms that provide the service.

      Delete
  3. in other exciting news,

    Hunter Biden is now a superstar artist:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/arts/design/hunter-biden-art-white-house.html

    and kamala harris is a best selling author:
    https://www.amazon.com/Truths-We-Hold-American-Journey/dp/0525560718

    these guys so talented, they can surpass professionals in their free time. Of course the free market should reward their talent.


    ReplyDelete